Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis for Pakenham Cup Day, Ascot

Form analyst Brad Waters says a Gai Waterhouse stayer will give punters a run for their money in the Pakenham Cup. RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over the nine-event card of racing at Saturday’s Pakenham Cup meeting.

Plus, TAB punting guru Nick Quinn searches all corners of the country to find his three best plays for the weekend.

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GIL’S GOOD THINGS

BEST BET: METEORITE

R2 No. 8 No. 2.70

Worried out of it last start when challenged in front as odds-on favourite but the winner, Grandview Avenue, did go on to add the Listed Carlyon Stakes next start impressively.

NEXT BEST: TAVIDANCE

R5 No. 8 $2.50

Unlucky not to be going into this a last start winner but gets his chance to go one better today. Will be really strong at the finish.

PRINCESS JENNI

R7 No. 2 $4.80

Class runner and proven at the trip. Needs a bit of luck from the barrier but jockey Jye McNeil should be able to find a good spot in the small field.

VALUE BET: STAROUZ

R4 No. 3 $15

Big weight but suspect he will go forward and give some cheek. Should appreciate the big track and apprentice claim.

MISS DIVINE EM

R1 No. 1 $6.50

Rattled off three straight wins after running fourth on debut to cap a nice first campaign, back from a break and despite the big weight should be right in the finish. Makes her own luck in front.

THE JOCKEY: NASH RAWILLER

Champion jockey and winner of 61 Group 1s adds loads of class to the Victorian riding ranks, if only for the Christmas period.

Holds a strong hand at Pakenham with: HI STRANGER (R6 No. 8 $4.20), ATTORNEY (R7 No. 4 $4.80) and SCORE (R9 No. 11 $7) among the best chances.

QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS

LEG 1: RACE 6

A 1200m sprint starts Saturday’s Pakenham quaddie with the open race requiring a mid-sized approach to the first leg. WILLIAM THOMAS (1) drops in class after a good effort at Flemington while TAVISAN (2) will be improved after a good effort at Sandown first-up. SIRIUS SUSPECT (5) has a terrific record at 1200m with six wins over the distance. ENIGMAN (9) was stiff not to get the money at Ballarat first-up and his second-up record entitles him to consideration. I’M TELLING YA (14) did his best work late first-up and the big Pakenham track will suit.

1st leg: 1, 2, 5, 9, 14

LEG 2: RACE 7

Only 10 runners in the Pakenham Cup this year but it’s a most interesting affair with the pace likely to be fair for all runners. PRINCESS JENNI (2) hasn’t raced since her fighting win in the Bendigo Cup in October but she’s the class horse in the race as a Group 1 winner. ATTORNEY (4) was solid again in the Zipping Classic and should get more pace to suit the Matthew Smith-trained galloper. KNIGHTS ORDER (7) has been freshened after a month between runs but has drawn to be in the race for a long way.

2nd leg: 2, 4, 7

LEG 3: RACE 8

The set weights and penalties format of the VOBIS Gold Bullion favours the higher-rated runners, which means top-rated ICONOCLASM (1) goes in. GALAXY RAIDER (3) has the ability to threaten and drops in class after competing at Group 3 level at Sandown. THE ASTROLOGIST (5) is worth another chance after his second as a short-priced favourite at Ballarat while WILD VIXEN (8) is another that drops back in grade here. MOSH MUSIC (7) is going in purely to cover all bases. She hasn’t raced for more than a year but she’s a talent with an impeccable record.

3rd leg: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8

LEG 4: RACE 9

Big field to finish the Pakenham Cup Day with 16 mares to tackle the Benchmark 78 contest. Going with five runners to finish in the even affair with ARCTIC SHOCK (2) going in after a luckless first-up run at Ballarat. LUNAKORN (6) is a query runner after her last outing at Ballarat but she’s a talented mare. HASSTOBEGOOD (10) was competitive after working hard in Group 3 class at Sandown and will find this easier. SCORE (11) closed steadily for a promising fourth (11) at Ballarat second-up and is ready for another crack at 1400m. METRONOME (13) rises in class but is honest and worth putting in.

4th leg: 2, 6, 10, 11, 13

$100 Flexi for 26%

SKINNY QUADDIE

1st leg: 1, 2, 5, 9, 14

2nd leg: 2, 7

3rd leg: 1, 8

4th leg: 2, 10, 11

$100 flexi for 166%

FOUR-PLAY: BRAD WATERS $50 BETTING STRATEGY

RACE 1: $25 each-way MISS DIVINE EM (1) at $9/$2.40

RACE 5: $50 win ALL TOO HUIYING (2) at $5.50

RACE 7: $50 win KNIGHTS ORDER (7) at $4.80

RACE 8: $25 each-way WILD VIXEN (8) at $6/$2.20

THE OIL: PAKENHAM

BEST BET

KNIGHTS ORDER (Race 7, No. 7)

VALUE BET

BRILLIANT CONCEPT (Race 3, No. 5)

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 4, 5, 8/4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 16 /3, 4, 6, 8, 13, 14/1, 2, 4, 8

$100 flexi for 14.88 per cent

BIG6

3, 4, 6, 8, 13, 14/1, 2, 4, 8/1, 2, 5, 9, 14/2, 4, 7/1, 5, 8/10, 11

$100 flexi for 4.62 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 1, 2, 5, 9, 14

Race 7: 2, 4, 7

Race 8: 1, 5, 8

Race 9: 2, 6, 10, 11, 13

$100 flexi for 44.44 per cent

RACE 1: 12:50PM 3YO BM70 HANDICAP (1000m)

The Pakenham track was in the soft range midweek but will improve with fine conditions forecast in the lead-up to the Pakenham Cup meeting. Only nine runners to start the day but the first is a tricky little race. MISS DIVINE EM (1) might be the value play at her early price. She ran well behind the handy Free To Move first-up last time in and trialled well at Tatura. She’s also unbeaten at 1000m. WRITTEN MISS (6) finished well to get the money on debut at Ballarat and could go on with it. NANTUCKET (3) will improve off a strong first-up maiden win while MARTINI SPECIAL (4) has shown plenty of ability in her two runs to date and will race well.

SUGGESTED BET: Miss Divine Em each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Esta La Roca $5.50 – $5

RACE 2: 1:25PM BM78 HANDICAP (1000m)

There looks to be plenty of speed on in this 1000m scamper and all runners should get their chance on the spacious Pakenham track. FINAL MAN (4) could be the value runner in this race after two solid efforts in similar races this time in, including when not far away down the straight on Stakes Day. A bit of give in the track would help while the four-year-old is unbeaten at Pakenham. HUMAN NATURE (2) drops back from stakes races at his last two outings and will be one of the hardest to beat. METEORITE (8) will show his usual speed and be in this for a long way despite his last-start defeat at The Valley. PARIANO (5) is unbeaten first-up and should be thereabouts again over her favourite trip.

SUGGESTED BET: Final Man each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Human Nature $6.50 – $6

RACE 3: 2PM BM78 HANDICAP (2000m)

The Benchmark 78 contest is a wide-open affair with a case to be made for most of the big field. BRILLIANT CONCEPT (5) is hard to catch but his turn might be coming judging by his solid outings at his last two runs. He has finished off well enough at his last two runs and wasn’t far away at his only run over the 2000m trip. Giving him an each-way chance at odds. STARCASTER (9) is equally hard to catch but he comes out of the same Ballarat race as Brilliant Concept and likes this trip. NERVE NOT VERVE (6) was a fighting winner at The Valley last time and will again be competitive again. MILESTONE (16) did enough first-up around The Valley and can improve sharply over 2000m.

SUGGESTED BET: Brilliant Concept each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Zachaz $7 – $5.50

RACE 4: 2:35PM BM70 HANDICAP (1600m)

STAROUZ (3) was working up to a win before a battling effort in an on-pacers’ race at Ballarat last time. He was narrowly beaten at Bendigo two runs back and drops back to Benchmark 70 class. The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr-trained Starouz races well at the 1600m trip and should run well. ASTRAEUS (6) led throughout to score in impressive fashion at The Valley last time and should again give them something to chase. WESTBROOK PARK (14) is racing well and rates an each-way chance in a similar race to his last assignment. WHAM (4) led and tried hard at Sandown at midweek level and is worth thought.

SUGGESTED BET: Starouz each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

All Too Huiying two wins this prep have been at the mile. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5: 3:15PM HANDICAP (1600m)

ALL TOO HUIYING (2) is racing in super form this time in, winning the Seymour and Sale Cups before an excellent effort when fourth in the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes at his last run. He drops in grade for this and the Phillip Stokes-trained stallion is back to his favourite trip at Pakenham. SHOT OF IRISH (4) is fresh for this after good effort in the Moe Cup and enjoys the 1600m trip. NIGHT’S WATCH (1) resumes for a new stable at Pakenham and has more than enough ability to threaten fresh. TAVIDANCE (8) ran on well when not far away in the Kilmore Cup and looks suited with the services of Damien Oliver. A bit of rain would make him harder to beat.

SUGGESTED BET: All Too Huiying to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Tavidance $3.10 – $2.50

RACE 6: 3:55PM HANDICAP (1200m)

An even field tackles the 1200m sprint at Pakenham but going with the honest WILLIAM THOMAS (1), who is dropping back in class after a sound effort in Listed company down the straight at Flemington. He’s drawn the perfect barrier and getting back around a bend suits. SIRIUS SUSPECT (5) led and tried hard down the straight at Flemington and drops in class as well. His second-up record is excellent. I’M TELLING YA (14) hit the line hard down the straight first-up and is a second-up winner. ENIGMAN (9) was stiff not to get the money at big odds first-up at Ballarat and looks to have come back well.

SUGGESTED BET: William Thomas to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sirius Suspect $4.20 – $3.90.

RACE 7: 4:35PM SPORTSBET PAKENHAM CUP (2500m)

There’s a little bit of early speed in the Pakenham Cup but one of the on-pacers, the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained KNIGHTS ORDER (7), will be the hardest to beat. He led for a long way before weakening late over 2800m at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day but he was a strong winner over 2400m before that. He’ll be tough to run down in the Pakenham Cup. PRINCESS JENNI (2) is the class horse of the race and will be thereabouts despite going into the race off a five-week break. BRIMHAM ROCKS (1) is honest and should be around the mark. ATTORNEY (4) also comes out of the Zipping Classic at Sandown and should run well.

SUGGESTED BET: KNIGHTS ORDER to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Scarlet Dream $9 – $7.50

Knights Order will be tough to run down in the Pakenham Cup. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 8: 5:15PM VOBIS GOLD BULLION (1400m)

The VOBIS Gold Bullion is a good betting race with several winning chances despite the compressed weight scale. WILD VIXEN (8) chased well when not far away at Flemington two runs back before a steady effort in Group 3 company at Sandown. She’ll find this race a bit easier and can improve here. ICONOCLASM (1) is a consistent galloper that is always hard to beat in this type of race. THE ASTROLOGIST (5) was beaten as a short-priced favourite at Ballarat but is worth another chance. GALAXY RAIDER (3) drops back from stakes races at Flemington and Sandown but was narrowly beaten in a similar race to this at The Valley three runs back. Consider him.

SUGGESTED BET: Wild Vixen to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Ocular $8 – $7

RACE 9: 5:50PM F&M BM78 HANDICAP (1400m)

A tough finale for Pakenham punters on Saturday. SCORE (11) did her best work late when fourth at Ballarat second-up and she was just run down at Listed level at her last run over 1400m. HASSTOBEGOOD (10) has been competitive in her three runs since arriving from NZ and she’ll find Saturday’s race easier than the Group 3 Summoned Stakes. METRONOME (13) steps up in class but is racing well and won’t be far away. ARCTIC SHOCK (2) never got a crack at them at Ballarat first-up and can improve sharply with a clearer run at Pakenham.

SUGGESTED BET: Score to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Hasstobegood $7 – $5

QUINNY’S MAILBAG: INSPIRATIONAL CALL MIGHT BE ENOUGH

BEST BET

INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (Ascot Race 8, No. 12)

VALUE BET

NEUFBOSC (Ascot Race 8, No. 6)

LAY OF THE WEEK

KEMENTARI (Ascot Race 7, No. 1)

PAKENHAM RACE 7

An even edition of the Pakenham Cup where if you find the winner the value will take care of itself.

Attorney is a drifting favourite now $4.40 out from $3.90 and comes into the race after an encouraging fourth behind Sound in the Zipping Classic.

Attorney won well at Rosehill three starts ago and steps up to 2500m for the first time.

Princess Jenni is the only last start winner in the race after her victory at long odds in the Bendigo Cup on October 28 and she has been backed from $6 into $5.

The runner that I am leaning to is Knight’s Order who comes into the race on the back a fourth placing behind Sin To Win at Flemington last start but won the Tatts Cup strongly two starts ago.

If Knight‘s Order can reproduce that run in a race devoid of genuine speed, he looks well placed on an each-way basis.

SUGGESTED BET: KNIGHT’S ORDER EACH-WAY

Isotope winning at the Sunshine Coast. Picture: Trackside Photography

DOOMBEN RACE 9
The early money has come for the classy filly Isotope to race her way back into the winner‘s circle.

Isotope has been backed from $2.80 into $2.10 with TAB’s chief media officer Trent Langskaill identified her as the best backed runner across the country at this early stage with bets including $2000 and $1300 at the $2.70.

She resumed as a beaten favourite at Doomben on November 7 but has since trialled strongly and looks primed to bounce back.

Isotope burst onto the scene winning her first two starts last campaign before catching the eye when second to Rothfire.

For mine in danger is Gotta Kiss who has trimmed up at longer odds from $11 into $9 with regular hoop Stephanie Thornton in the saddle.

Dusty Tycoon won well at Doomben last start and shapes as a leading contender and a must for the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: ISOTOPE THE WIN

ASCOT RACE 9

Punters are sticking with William Pike adding another Group 1 to the resume by backing his mount Inspirational Girl in the Kingston Town Classic.

Inspirational Girl was heavily backed a fortnight ago when winning the Group 1 Railway Stakes and the rising star mare has won three in a row and nine of her 11 career starts.

The early money has come for her and she dominates the market at around the $2.10 quote and there is no reason why she won’t carry on her winning ways and provide a good opportunity for favourite punters later on in the day.

The main danger appears to be Too Close The Sun who was runner up to Inspirational Girl in the Railway and should appreciate the step back up to 1800m where he won the Ascot Gold Cup two starts ago.

Too Close The Sun looks the obvious danger and is roughly the same price simply to run a placing as Inspirational Girl is to win.

There are two roughies who I anticipate will run well, both who are familiar to Victorian punters.

Neufbosc returned to form by winning the Carbine Club last start over 1400m, it was his first Australian win after boasting some tremendous international form including chasing home Enable in the 2018 Arc and finishing runners-up to Kew Gardens at Group 1 level.

Now that he has returned to the winners list don’t hesitate sticking with him and whatever he does here stick with him towards the Perth Cup on January 2.

Kay Cee won this race last year and has been backed from $11 into $9 with last years runner-up Gailo Chop appearing over the odds at $35.

SUGGESTED BET: INSPIRATIONAL GIRL WIN