Master form analyst Peter Ellis gives Scottish his seal of approval in Caulfield Cup

PODCAST: A LONG-range plan is set to bring Godolphin its second Caulfield Cup in eight years with Scottish, suggests expert form analyst Peter Ellis.

A LONG-range plan is set to bring Godolphin its second Caulfield Cup in eight years with Scottish, who can make his own luck around the tight, turning circuit.

An important factor in Scottish’s favour is that Kerrin McEvoy, who piloted Godolphin’s 2008 winner All The Good, is riding in brilliant fashion, which means the loss of James McDonald to suspension should not be a factor.

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Scottish has four wins up to 2000m and four seconds from his 11 outings.

Significantly, the Charlie Appleby-trained gelding has performed with distinction in 2400m races at premier meetings in England.

At Royal Ascot in June last year, he finished second of 17 in the King George V Stakes, then six weeks later at Glorious Good-wood produced one of the best performances of his career when a close second to Highland Reel in the Gordon Stakes.

Scottish walks past trainer Charlie Appleby as his routine is discussed. Picture: Mark Stewart

That form has since been franked by Highland Reel finishing third in Cox Plate and becoming the benchmark for middle-distance horses in Europe this year.

Since resuming in May for his new connections, Scottish has continued to impress with two wins and two places from four outings, showing a liking for the left-handed way of racing with dashing victories at Newbury and York.

Importantly, the Caulfield Cup has long been in the thoughts of the Godolphin hierarchy for Scottish.

Ciaron Maher’s Jameka deserves favouritism, but mares have an indifferent record in the race over the past 20 years.

Since Arctic Scent won in 1996, only Ethereal and Southern Speed have won for the fairer sex.

Against that, Jameka has an impressive record over staying trips, winning the Victoria Oaks as well as notching a second in the Australian Derby and a desperately unlucky fourth in the Australasian Oaks.

She is probably even better this season and has the tactical speed to take a forward position, despite drawing barrier 13.

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Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has selected the cup for his very expensive Sir Isaac Newton.

A renowned strong finisher, Sir Isaac Newton has raced against the best company in most of his outings. He put in a Caulfield Cup-winning effort when fourth to Highland Reel in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2400m) at Ascot.

Another northern hemisphere bred horse, Sir John Hawkwood, has suddenly blossomed into a classy stayer this year and can feature in the finish.

The eight-year-old had a breakout win in the Group 1 Metropolitan (2400m) at Randwick two weeks ago.

Lee Freedman’s Exo-spheric makes his Australian debut today.

He was favourite when a disappointing eighth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot on a wet track but since returning to firm ground has been competitive in quality company.

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German trainer Andreas Wohler would only bring Articus here if he thought he could earn a decent share of the prizemoney.

A noted on-pacer, Articus did yield in the latter stages when fifth in a Group 1 over 2000m at Munich on July 31, so he could be suspect at the distance.

Real Love — a winner of the Perth Cup and WA St. Leger — has further enhanced her record since joining Darren Weir’s stable in January.

Over the time since she has had 11 starts for four wins, five placings.

The beauty about Real Love, who will have the services of two-time Caulfield Cup winner Craig Williams, is that she puts in 100 per cent every times she races and that should put her in the firing line over the concluding stages.

Scottish, ridden by James Doyle, leads the field home to win at Newbury in July. Picture: PA

THE BET

The Caulfield Cup always provides value and for that reason I think the odds about Scottish, Sir Isaac Newton and Sir John Hawkwood are very generous.

Back Scottish to win (6 units), Sir Isaac Newton (2 units) and Sir John Hawkwood (2 units).

Box 3 (Exospheric), 4 (Scottish), 5 (Sir Isaac Newton), 8 (Sir John Hawkwood) and 11 (Jameka) in trifectas and first fours.

SELECTIONS

1 Scottish (4)

2 Jameka (11)

3 Sir Isaac Newton (5)

4 Sir John Hawkwood (8)

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Scottish goes through his paces at Werribee. Picture: Mark Stewart

THE QUADDIE

First Leg: Tristarc Stakes (R7)

SYDNEY-trained horses can be expected to dominate. Two wins over Winx shows the class of First Seal and with the benefit of one run from a break she should have the edge. Tycoon Tara has improved lengths since joining the Snowdens winning three of four this campaign. Underrated four-year-old Denmagic has hit the line hard in her last two starts, while Kris Lees’ Danish Twist and Chris Waller’s French Emotion have claims.

SELECTIONS: 1, 2, 4, 6, 10

Second Leg: Caulfield Cup (R8)

THE Northern Hemisphere bred Exospheric, Scottish, Sir Isaac Newton and Sir John Hawkwood have a class edge over the locals apart from Jameka. Scottish has been kept fresh for today’s assignment and can make his own luck. Sir Isaac Newton will need luck because he will settle around midfield. Metropolitan winner Sir John Hawkwood has hit a career high while the Freedmans’ Exospheric has to be respected.

SELECTIONS: 3, 4, 5, 8, 11

Third Leg: Caulfield Sprint (R9)

HELLBENT has been highly regarded since his two-year-old days and is now fulfilling expectations after joining the Weir camp. The winner of three of his four starts this prep and produced a breathtaking finish to score over 1100m at Caulfield last time. While Hellbent will be closing fast, Wild Rain who is a specialist at 1000m will be speeding along and hard to catch. Our Boy Malachi can never be discounted. Adelaide-trained Viddora could be the surprise packet and Faatinah is worth another chance.

SELECTIONS: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

Fourth Leg: Moonga Stakes (R10)

DARREN Weir has been the only Victorian trainer in the last eight years to win this race and today he holds the ace card in Voodoo Lad. Since transferring from Sydney Voodoo Lad has won four and been placed four times and last of those he was a fast finishing second in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke. There is a slight distance doubt over Sydneysider Takedown at 1400m but he has come back better than ever. Queenslander Hopfgarten had a difficult run under 60kg last time, but drops 3.5kg. Fast ‘n’ Rocking doesn’t win often, but was placed at the elite level last time, while on-pacer Durendal should get a dream run from barrier 3.

SELECTIONS: 4, 6, 9, 11, 12

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SKINNY QUADDIE

$48 for 100%

First Leg: 1, 2, 10

Second Leg: 4, 5, 8, 11

Third Leg: 4, 5

Fourth Leg: 4, 12

THE REST OF THE PROGRAM

Race 1

1. Sylpheed (5)

2. Skylight Glow (3)

3. Another Bullseye (6)

4. Gogo Grace (7)

Race 2

1. Acatour (7)

2. Morton’s Fork (4)

3. Inside Agent (3)

4. Nikitas (5)

Race 3

1. Super Cash (7)

2. Vezalay (6)

3. Flippant (4)

4. I Love It (2)

Race 4

1. Sebring Dream (2)

2. Moqueen (1)

3. Bella Sorellastra (3)

4. Eleonora (5)

Race 5

1. Seaburge (1)

2. Good Standing (2)

3. Inference (6)

4. Rocketeer (5)

Race 6

1. It’s Somewhat (1)

2. Maurus (3)

3. The Cleaner (2)

4. Vanbrugh (4)

Race 7

1. First Seal (1)

2. Tycoon Tara (2)

3. Denmagic (10)

4. Danish Twist (6)

Race 9

1. Hellbent (5)

2. Wild Rain (4)

3. Our Boy Malachi (2)

4. Viddora (8)

Race 10

1. Voodoo Lad (12)

2. Takedown (4)

3. Hopfgarten (11)

4. Fast ‘n’ Rocking (6)

Peter Ellis is racing strategist for Victoria’s leading trainer, Darren Weir