Leading Victorian form analyst Peter ‘The Ghost’ Ellis backs Press Statement to overcome wide draw
PODCAST/ANALYSIS: PETER Ellis is known by many monikers on the racetrack — the Colonel and the Ghost among them. Today he is your secret weapon.
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PETER Ellis is known by many monikers on the racetrack — the Colonel and the Ghost among them. To trainer Darren Weir, Ellis is simply “the weapon”.
Without Ellis as his key strategist, Weir would not have won the past two Melbourne premierships.
TUNE IN TO PETER ‘THE GHOST’ ELLIS’S CAULFIELD PREVIEW
Ellis is regarded as one of Australia’s best punters and most astute form judges.
And for this spring carnival, starting today, Ellis works for you.
Below is his informative preview of Caulfield Guineas Day.
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THE FAVOURITE AND THE KNOCK
ON FACTS, form and figures, the Chris Waller-trained Press Statement can be expected to win today’s Caulfield Guineas by lengths.
The Hinchinbrook colt has an official rating of 95, while his closest rival on those classifications is Ciaron Maher’s Bon Aurum on 82.
Then comes John O’Shea’s Shards and Mick Price’s Ready For Victory with 80.
But the history of the race is against Press Statement, who will jump from barrier 14.
Over the years the Caulfield Guineas has not treated three-year-olds who have drawn wide kindly.
Only seven winners have scored from outside barrier 10, and just two — God’s Own (2005) and Whobegotyou (2008) — have been successful in the past 20 years.
On the other hand Press Statement is going into the race with outstanding credentials.
The winner of the Group 1 J. J Atkins over 1600m at Doomben, he toyed with his rivals in the 1500m Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes at Rosehill at his last start.
Recent winners of the Guineas to have come through the Stan Fox have been Kenwood Melody, Econsul, Lonhro and Shooting To Win.
Although Press Statement will probably be coming from around midfield, one of his main dangers, Dal Cielo, a bold-going Group 1 winner from across the Tasman, jumps from barrier 8, allowing jockey Opie Bosson to go forward or press for the lead.
Like Our Maizcay, who was the last Kiwi winner of the Caulfield Guineas, Dal Cielo is a confirmed on-pace runner.
THE KNOCKOUT
WITH the race going four times to the favourite in the past eight years, the market has been a reliable guide, but conversely there have been a number of surprise results.
The longest price winner was Abaridy at 250-1 in 1986.
Other shock winners have been Procol Harum at 33-1 in 1989, Centro at 25-1 in 1990, In Top Swing at 20-1 in 2003 and Econsul at 40-1 in 2004.
On that basis I am giving Pat Hyland’s Lizard Island a decent chance at 25/1.
Being a last start winner over 1600m at Pakenham does not set the blood tingling, but it is worth noting Lizard Island has performed creditably against quality opposition at his previous five starts.
Hyland also knows about winning the Guineas, having ridden outsider Runaway Kid, who beat Bold Diplomat and red-hot favourite Kingston Town in 1979.
PRELUDE v STAN FOX
MIKE Moroney will be saddling up the talented gelding Tulsa, who, like Lizard Island, is by the emerging sire Sebring. He rattled home at his last appearance to be beaten only a head by Bon Aurum in the 1400m Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago.
Although he will appreciate the extra distance, Tulsa will jump from barrier 16 and spot his rivals a hefty start. He is sure to be charging late.
While Sydney’s Stan Fox has produced its share of winners over the years, the Prelude has been an even more pronounced guide to the Caulfield Guineas.
Seven winners — God’s Own, Wonderful World, Whobegotyou, Starspangledbanner, Anacheeva, Helmet and Long John — have come through the Prelude in the past decade.
Of those, Wonderful World, Anacheeva and Long John were triumphant in both races.
As a result, the underrated Bon Aurum must be respected, because he has immense courage and great talent.
Peter Moody’s lightly-raced Bassett has two wins from three starts to his credit, and was bumped about when finishing fifth behind Press Statement at Doomben.
Moody’s great mate Mick Price also has a legitimate contender in Ready For Victory, who turned in a slashing fourth in the Golden Slipper in the autumn, but
has taken three runs to bring him to a pitch in this campaign.
It is significant that Price has elected to add blinkers to Ready For Victory’s gear — and that makes him an interesting runner.
The Price stable will also be represented by Tarzino, a last-start winner over 1600m at Caulfield.
As the countdown to starting time intensifies, Press Statement is stifling win-betting and is being backed up by Odyssey Moon, Rageese and Shards, who have also come down from NSW and are all worth thinking about for the multiples.
THE EARLY OIL: CAULFIELD GUINEAS DAY
HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS
ANALYSIS: CAULFIELD GUINEAS PREVIEW
LISTEN TO MACCA, MATTY AND DANNY PREVIEW CAULFIELD GUINEAS DAY
$1m CAULFIELD GUINEAS
Saturday, Caulfield
$1 million Group 1 (1600m)
1. PRESS STATEMENT C Waller H Bowman (14) 56.5kg
2. ODYSSEY MOON R Northam S Arnold (13) 56.5kg
3. READY FOR VICTORY M Price G Boss (4) 56.5kg
4. RAGEESE M, W & J Hawkes J Winks (15) 56.5kg
5. DAL CIELO (NZ) M Baker O Bosson (8) 56.5kg
6. BON AURUM C Maher K McEvoy (10) 56.5kg
7. SHARDS J O’Shea J Cassidy (12) 56.5kg
8. SOVEREIGN NATION D Hayes & T Dabernig M Walker (1) 56.5kg
9. BASSETT (NZ) P G Moody D Stackhouse (9) 56.5kg
10. LAST BULLET J Hyam V Duric (6) 56.5kg
11. LIZARD ISLAND P Hyland B Shinn (2) 56.5kg
12. KENTUCKY FLYER R Laing C Williams (5) 56.5kg
13. TARZINO (NZ) M Price C Newitt (3) 56.5kg
14. SNOOPY M, W & J Hawkes D Dunn (11) 56.5kg
15. TULSA M Moroney B Melham (16) 56.5kg
16. MORE THAN MOST D Hayes & T Dabernig M Zahra (7) 56.5kg
17e. MR INDIVIDUAL L & T Corstens M Zahra (17) 56.5kg
BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
STABLE WATCH: CLEARY DUO READY FOR TAKEOFF
PRICE CHECK: EARLY GUIDE TO SATURDAY’S RACES
MONEY TRAIN: SPRING BETTING TRACKER
Peter’s quaddie
LEG 1 TOORAK HANDICAP
Over the years the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes has been the most reliable guide to the chances in the Toorak. 2015 winner STRATUM STAR, second placegetter DISPOSITION and sixth-placed LUCKY HUSSLER seem set to dominate the race.
SELECTIONS 1, 2, 7, 15
LEG 2 THOUSAND GUINEAS
At 51, Jim Cassidy will be the oldest jockey riding at Caulfield. It’s 26 years since the second of his two victories in this race, but his age will not be a problem as he uses his experience and strength to give longshot PAYROLL every possible chance. An obvious threat is equal favourite PASADENA GIRL, a Group 1 winner over 1600m favoured by the set weights.
SELECTIONS 1, 4, 7, 8
LEG 3 CAULFIELD GUINEAS
PRESS STATEMENT will start a short-priced favourite, but will need luck from barrier 14, considering his inexperience racing left-handed. Caulfield has been a graveyard for Sydneysiders having their first run in Victoria, most notably Kingston Town when beaten at odds on in 1979. It’s worth including READY FOR VICTORY, DAL CIELO, LIZARD ISLAND and TULSA.
SELECTIONS 1, 3, 5, 11, 15
CAPE GRIM BEEF STEAKS
It’s hard to go past the Robert Smerdon-trained POLITENESS. She stormed home to win a Group 3 at the course and distance last month and has the same weight in what looks an easier race. The impeccably-bred WAWAIL is a mare of considerable ability. She won five of her first eight starts and ran into a traffic jam behind Politeness when resuming.
SELECTIONS 3, 4
Cost: $80 (50%)
Back up quaddie
First Leg: 1,2,7,15
Second Leg: 1,4,7,8
Third Leg: 1
Fourth Leg: 3,4
Cost: $32 (100%)
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