Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis for Flemington and Eagle Farm
Wet weather form takes precedence as top tipsters Michael Manly and Nick Quinn wade through the slush in search of that elusive winner, while trainer Matt Cumani gives the final word on his stable star.
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley runs the rule over the Living Legends tribute meeting at Flemington.
With intermittent showers forecast for the next 24 hours and the track already rated a Heavy (8), punters can expect a tough day at the office at headquarters.
Stream over 50 sports on-demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >
CHECK OUT QUINNY’S SATURDAY SNAPSHOT BELOW
BEST BET
AUSSIE NUGGET (R7, No. 10 $3.80)
At his last start he gave away a big start and took valuable ground from the in-form Shot Of Thunder over 1800m at Caulfield last start and he will be better suited by Flemington.
NEXT BEST
SHEPHARD (R1, No. 7 $3.90)
He’s facing his toughest test but his stayer with great potential. He easily defeated subsequent Ballarat winner Arty Lucas last start also at Ballarat. Extra distance and Flemington will suit.
SO SI BON (R8, No. 2 $4.80)
He’s carrying a big weight but he’s loving racing in off season handicaps which are much easier than most of the races he’s taken on in his career. He clicked with Thomas Stockdale last start and he’ll like love the fast speed.
BEST EACH-WAY
MISS IANO (R6, No. 10 $8)
Consistent mare who finished third last spring behind Tofane and Pippie over 1100m at Flemington. Good run last start when fourth in the Wangoom Handicap and she’s drawn out which should be the place to be.
THE JOCKEY
BEN MELHAM
Ben Melham has five rides highlighted by ALFA ORO (R4, No. 12). His other mounts include INDICTMENT (R2, No. 4 $5) and MISS IANO (R6, No. 10 $8 who have great chances.
THE TRAINER
MATT CUMANI
SASKO (R1, No. 2 $26)
“He’s an exposed horse and he was the beneficiary of a clever ride to win at Warrnambool last start. He’s in form and although this is harder he should run well.”
KHOEKHOE (R2, No. 1 $2.25)
“His two wins at his last two starts have been very encouraging. He has a great will to win and I’m looking forward to him starting over 1400m.”
FLANDERSRAIN (R5, No. 8 $14)
“She’s looking for 2000m. She hasn’t drawn well but she’s a tough genuine filly. I’m hoping the track will dry out.”
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2,4,5,6/1,2,4,5,8,13/8,11,12/4,5,10,11
$100 flexi for 27.77%
BIG6
8,11,12/4,5,10/2,7,10/10,15/2,13/1,7,11,12
$100 flexi for 23.14%
QUADZILLA WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
FIRST LEG: RACE 6
MISS IANO (10) ran well in the Wangoom Handicap and she has run well down the straight so she’s a must have. The two horses who finished close-up in the 1000m race behind Prezado last week MILWAUKEE (7) and MALIBU STYLE (2) are also must haves. GREAT AGAIN (5) has a great record on wet tracks and has been jumping out well for Lindsey Smith.
1st Leg: 2,5,7,10
SECOND LEG: RACE 7
Happy to narrow this down to the two main chances in AUSSIE NUGGET (10) and DUKE OF PLUMTPON (15). Aussie Nugget should be ready to win and Duke Of Plumtpon will love the heavy track.
2nd Leg: 10.15
THIRD LEG: RACE 8
The pair of gallopers who are both aiming to make it a hat-trick of wins, SO SI BON (2) and SHOT OF IRISH (13) are must haves. German import DJANGO FREEMAN (5) makes his Australian debut and he’s impressed his Australian trainer Robert Hickmott with his recent gallops. Michael Rodd is reunited with former Singapore star DEBT AGENT (3) and he’s the value runner.
3rd Leg: 2,3,5,13
FOURTH LEG: RACE 9
It’s a straight race and it’s a three-year-old race where most of the longshot winners have been in the past couple of months so go wide. HILO (1) is a must inclusion as is THE ASTROLOGIST (11) who finished strongly for first-up second. Add ALBURQ (5), ROCCABASCERANA (6), CAN’T BE DONE (7), SOMALS (12) and LOMBARDO (15).
4th Leg: 1,5,6,7,11,12,15
SKINNY QUADDIE
Take two in each leg. Start with MILWAUKEE (7) and MISS IANO (10). Then in the second Leg stay with AUSSIE NUGGET (10) and DUKE OF PLUMTPON (15). Third leg take the in-form pair of SO SI BON (2) and SHOT OF IRISH (13). In the final leg take the pair who are drawn out who are HILO (1) and THE ASTROLOGIST (11).
1st Leg: 7,10
2nd Leg: 10,15
3rd Leg: 2,13
4th Leg: 1,11
$25 flexi for 156.25%
MANLEY’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 1: ROGAN JOSH STAYERS TROPHY (2000m)
$50 win on SHEPHARD (7) at $3.90 the win.
Peter Moody can crown his return to Flemington as a trainer with a win with this promising stayer. He’s won four of seven and last start he defeated subsequent Ballarat winner in Arty Lucas.
RACE 5: EFFICIENT HANDICAP (2000m)
$25 each-way on HIGHLAND JAKK (10) at $9/$3
He’s a promising stayer and he gets out to 2000m which will suit him. He’s drawn out but will go back anyway. Look for Mark Zahra to time his run to perfection.
RACE 6: HILTON NICHOLAS STRAIGHT SIX (1200m)
$25 each-way on MISS IANO (10) at $8/$2.70
Nice effort at her last start when fourth in the Wangoom Handicap. She likes the straight and handles wet tracks. She’s also drawn out which suits her style of racing.
RACE 7: BREW’S ANNIVERSARY PLATE (1800m)
$50 win on AUSSIE NUGGET (10) at $3.80
He should be ready to win after four runs back from a spell. Made up good ground to finish second to Shot Of Irish last start at Caulfield and Flemington will suit him even better.
WEEKEND BEST BETS: VALUE WAY TO GO IN BIG WET
LATEST MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS
RACE 1: 11.40AM ROGAN JOSH TROPHY (2500M)
SHEPHARD (7) can give Peter Moody his return city winner. He easily defeated subsequent city comfortable Ballarat winner Arty Lucas on a Heavy track over 2000m on a Heavy 8 track. He’s won four of his seven starts including a narrow victory at his only run over 2400m at Mornington last year. STARCASTER (6) floundered on the Heavy track at Sandown last start. He has the talent but a wet track is again the query. SIN TO WIN (1) is building to another win. Good effort last start when third in the Warrnambool Cup. He’s had two starts this track and distance for two seconds. SASKO (2) led throughout to win at Warrnambool on the same day in a Benchmark 78 and hold off NASHVILLE SOUND (10). GOOD IDEA (3) is racing consistently. Query on a wet track. Chris Waller has brought last start Sydney winner. Forget INSTIGATOR’s (9) last run in the Warrnambool Cup as he was trapped wide throughout. YONKERS (4) to Melbourne after a last start win at Kensington over 2000m.
SUGGESTED BET: SHEPHARD THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 4) Yonkers $4.80-$4
6) Starcaster $5-$4.40
BETS: $1,000 @ $5
7) Shepard $4.40-$3.90
BETS: $500 @ $4
RACE 2: 12.15PM TOM MELBOURNE TROPHY (1400M, 2YO)
KHOEKHOE (1) stretched out like a smart horse to win The Showdown last start at Caulfield over 1200m. He ran down a smart filly in River Night and the way bhe finished suggested 1400m will suit. IMMORTAL LOVE (5) showed speed and kicked clear for strong win at his debut at Echuca over 1100m. ROCK THE RING (2) also ran on strongly to win over 1112m at Sale last start. He ran the third fastest 600m for the meeting. INDICTMENT (4) caught in the field. Blinkers first time and go on her previous start when third behind Flying Award. NICOLINI VITO (6) sat wide and fought on well for third at his debut at Geelong over 1212m.
SUGGESTED BET: KHOEKHOE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Khoekhoe $2.70-$2.50
BETS: $1,000 @ $2.70
RACE 3: 12.50PM: REDKIRK WARRIOR TROPHY (1400M, BENCHMARK 78)
LA CHEVALEE (8) surged past the in-form Florent to win on a Heavy track over 1400m at Sandown Lakeside last start. She’s well drawn again and should be prominent throughout. Michael Poy again takes 1.5 kilos off her back. WILD VIXEN (4) raced on the speed and was a last start stakes winner in Adelaide. DEBT’N’DEFICIT (5) defeated some smart horses this track and distance last Saturday when she defeated Beehunter. MISS LEILA (13) is racing consistently with placings at her past three starts. KURAMAE (2) won her second race this track and distance when she ran on to defeat Beehunter. BARBIE’S FOX (1) swooped home to win last start at Caulfield over 1200m on a Heavy track. She’s had one start this track and distance for a close-up fourth behind Heirborn.
SUGGESTED BET: LA CHEVALEE EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 5) Debt’n’deficit $6-$3.90
8) La Chevalee $6.50-$4.60
BETS: $500 @ $6, $500ew @ $5.50/$2.10
RACE 4: 1.30PM: ALMANDIN HANDICAP (BENCHMARK 78, 1100M)
ALFA ORO (12) looks a horse going places. He’s had five starts for three wins and two seconds including easy wins at his last two starts at Pakenham and then at Pakenham Synthetic. He has had one start on a heavy track for a second. MONTENENGRO MAN (11) resumes after rare disappointing run. Races well fresh and down the straight. RUBAN BLEU (8) wasn’t beaten far when he finished fourth behind More Than Exceed on a heavy track at Sandown in a Benchmark 84. He’s had one start in a Benchmark 78 for a win. I’M TELLING YA (5) finished sixth in that same Sandown race. He races well down the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: ALFA ORO THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 12) Alfa Oro $2.40-$2.20
RACE 5: 2.05PM: EFFICIENT HANDICAP (2000M, 3YO)
HIGHLAND JAKK (10) has had one start over 2000m for a maiden win at Seymour. Also last spring he finished third at stakes level behind Pancho and Russian Camelot over 1800m at Flemington. He’s now had three runs back from a spell and last start he ran home nicely to finish third behind older horses in Kiss And Cry over 1800m at Sandown Hillside. HEZAFOX (4) finished powerfully to win at Sandown Lakeside over 2100m last start on a heavy track. He’s a promising stayer. He defeated TOORADIN (5) who was held up for a run in the straight. KUSARI (2) went forward and held on well to finish fourth in the same race. GAME KEEPER (1) has struck form and he completed the hat-trick when he won the 1600m Adelaide Guineas at his last start. NOVEMBER DREAMING (11) raced like she was looking for 2000m last Saturday. INDEPENDENT ROAD (3) is racing consistently. MIYAKE (6) sprinted home to win at Canterbury last start. TRANSLATOR (9) is aiming for hat trick after two country wins.
SUGGESTED BET: HIGHLAND JAKK EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Game Keeper $5.50-$4.60
RACE 6: 2.45PM: HILTON NICHOLAS STRAIGHT SIX (1200M)
Going to be a lot of speed which will suit MISS IANO (10) who also relishes wet tracks. She’s now had three runs back from a spell and should be ready to win. At her last start she finished fourth behind Order Of Command in the Wangoom where she ran the fastest last 600m for the meeting. She finished third in a stakes race behind Tofane and Pippie over 1100m at Flemington last spring. MILWAUKEE (7) was just beaten here last Saturday over 1000m. He has a great record over 1200m at Flemington. In the same race last week MALIBU STYLE (2) finished fourth and he’ll also be better suited over 1200m. HAUNTED (6) is a consistent sprinter. Big watch on former Perth sprinter GREAT AGAIN (5) who has been jumping out well. He’s won six from eight on wet tracks. HOME OF THE BRAVE (1) is speed and loves it wet. LA TIGERESA (13) loves it wet.
SUGGESTED BET: MISS IANO EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2) Malibu Style $15-$8
6) Haunted $8-$6
7) Milwaukee $5-$4.40
BETS: $2000 @ $5, $1000 @ $4.80, $400 win x $500 place @ $4.80/$2.10
RACE 7: 3.25PM: BREWS ANNIVERSARY PLATE (1800M, BM 84)
AUSSIE NUGGET (10) finished on strongly for second last start behind the in-form front runner Shot Of Irish at Caulfield over 1800m. Flemington will suit him even better. NOBU (2) ran on for a well beaten third in that race but he’s still a query on a wet track. DUKE OF PLUMPTON (15) has impressed in his two Australian starts for a win at Echuca and a last start second to Shot Of Irish at Sandown. EUGENE’S FOREST (13) races on speed and he has won his past three starts. ARCTIC SHOCK (9) is racing consistently. Former well performed Irish galloper MASAFF (1) ran on nicely at his Australian debut when he finished sixth behind the in-form Grand Piano over 1600m at Randwick. SUPRE (11) returned to her best when she came from well back to win at Caulfield last start on a heavy track over 1600m. SAVAHEAT (5) seems over the odds for a Flemington winner last spring.
SUGGESTED BET: AUSSIE NUGGET THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Masaff $11-$9
10) Aussie Nugget $3.80-$3.50
15) Duke Of Plumpton (1E) $3.80-$3.70
RACE 8: 4.05PM: APACHE CAT HANDICAP (1600M)
Two in-form gallopers in SO SI BON (2) and SHOT OF IRISH (13) face off who are looking to complete the hat-tricks and they look the two main chances. Although So Si Bon has to carry 61.5kgs he’s in such great form he should be able to handle it. So Si Bon toyed with his rivals to win at Caulfield last start over 1600m. He’s up 2.5 kilos but he’ll be suited by the speed which Shot Of Irish will set. Shot Of Irish drops four kilos to 54kgs after two kilos claim for Tahlia Hope. Big watch is former German galloper DJANGO FREEMAN (5) who makes his Australian debut. Best roughie is former Singapore star in DEBT AGENT (3) who will enjoy the fast speed. Big run three starts ago when he finished fourth to Wild Planet over 1400m at Flemington. REYKJAVIK (4) has run well at his two runs in but rises from 1200m to 1600m. MR MARATHON MAN (7) won third-up last winter and he finished on well late in the Wangoom Handicap. PACODALI (1) ran well first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: SO SI BON THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 2) So Si Bon $5.50-$4.60
5) Django Freeman $7-$7.50-$5.50
BETS: $250ew @ $7.50/$2.40, $1000 @ $7, $900 @ $6
8) Double You Tee $21-$15
RACE 9: 4.38PM: LIVING LEGENDS PLATE (1100M, 3YO)
HILO (1) has been racing well in Sydney in stronger races and without much luck. Two starts ago he finished third at stakes level on a heavy track at Randwick where he over-raced in the early stages and was left in front a long way out over 1400m. Then last start raced wide when third at Kensington behind Hightail. Damien Oliver rides and barrier 16 will suit. THE ASTROLOGIST (11) flew home when first-up third behind HI STRANGER (4) at Caulfield. CAN’T BE DONE (7) resumes and has had two starts at Flemington for two placings. Stablemate ABSOLUTE FLIRT (9) has had four starts this track and distance for three seconds. MOCKERY (10) is a Flemington winner and she’s returned to her best form. SOMALS (12) is a brilliant filly resuming. LOMBARDO (15) had little luck at his second start after brilliant debut win. SOVEREIGN LEGEND (13) looks over the odds.
ALBURQ (5) has finished second to Final Man on wet tracks at Sandown at his past two starts. ROCCABASCERANA (6) flopped last start in Adelaide which was his first defeat on a wet track in four starts.
SUGGESTED BET: HILO THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1) Hilo $5-$4.60
6) Roccabascerana $9-$7
11) The Astrologist $7-$4.80
NICK QUINN’S SATURDAY SNAPSHOT
Kementari has buried many a punter with his incredible form swings as only the enigmatic Godolphin galloper can, but TAB’s Nick Quinn is prepared to give him another chance.
That is at place odds only, with Quinny playing it extra safe by backing the five-year-old to finish in the first three in Victory Stakes at Eagle Farm.
Check out what else Quinny likes as he runs the rule over the big races across the country and pinpoints the early market movers.
BEST BET
ALFA ORO (Flemington R4, No. 12)
VALUE BET
KUKERACHA (Eagle Farm R6, No. 6)
LAY OF THE WEEK
THY KINGDOM COME (Eagle Farm R2, No. 10)
Stream over 50 sports on-demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >
FLEMINGTON
APACHE CAT HANDICAP 4.05pm
2020 has been a strange year by anybody’s standards, but So Si Bon winning a hat-trick of races would have to be on the podium for things we never thought we would witness.
The once maligned galloper has won his last two starts at Caulfield starts over 1600m and there is no reason why he won’t win again.
He has drawn out which will be to his liking and is in well at the weights after the claim for leading apprentice Thomas Stockdale.
So Si Bon has attracted early support backed from $5.50 into $4.60.
Shot Of Irish heads the market after a dominant win at Caulfield last start.
Since transferring to Richard Laming he has won two of his three starts and deserve top billing.
He makes his Flemington debut and will enjoy weight relief with apprentice Tahlia Hop claiming.
The intriguing galloper is former import Django Freeman who making his Australian debut.
Now trained by Robert Hickmott his trackwork had tongues wagging at Werribee quarantine centre last spring before he succumbed to injury.
He hasn’t raced since July 7 last year since running second at Hamburg in Germany.
He clearly has a lot of upside and is worth including in the quaddie, but he will take great improvement from what he does on Saturday going forward.
THE TIP: SO SI BON
EAGLE FARM
CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC 2.15pm
This will be a mouth-watering contest between two boom youngsters in Rothfire and Isotope who share favouritism at $2.60.
Rothfire resumes after tasting defeat for the first time at the Gold Coast on March 14 when beaten as a $1.20 favourite.
He was brave on that occasion when nothing went right and showed he was a serious two year-old by winning his first four career starts.
The filly that I want to be with here and going forward though is Isotope.
She was heavily backed on debut when winning by an astounding 10 lengths at Doomben and was equally as impressive making it two from two at the Sunshine Coast at her last start.
Back her to win here and have something on her for the J.J Atkins as a strong win will see her regain favouritism.
Outside the top two in the market I have plenty of time for Kukeracha and if there is to be an upset I anticipate that it will be him at $16.
He was ultra impressive when blowing the start and shooting through to win eased up at Geelong on debut and lost no admirers last start at Randwick.
THE TIP: ISOTOPE
THE TAB VICTORY STAKES 3.35pm
Can Kementari finally get back on the winners’ list?
He has attracted support at $5 and if he can produce his best then he must be considered, although he has already tested the patience of punters.
While slightly more conservative I am more inclined to back him the place at odds of $2.10.
His first two runs since resuming from a spell where full of merit running third at Rosehill and Randwick before the tempo worked against him at Doomben last start.
Vega One is a drifting favourite, he opened $4.20 and has eased to $4.80.
Vega One has slightly underwhelmed on face value in two runs this campaign, but everything is aimed at the Stradbroke and that campaign is ticking over nicely.
He can certainly win this along the way, but if you like him, I anticipate the drift will continue.
Deep Image has attracted early support firming from $12 into $8, he was just pipped by Tambo’s Mate last start and again that duo must be respected
THE TIP: KEMENTARI (the place)
LATEST MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS
MANLEY LOOKS AT THE BIG PLAYERS
Herald Sun form guru Michael Manley splits his time between Flemington and Eagle Farm to come up with the must-watch runners.
Among the horses that caught his eye were an impressive last-start winner for comeback trainer Peter Moody, and another promising three-year-old from the dominant Chris Waller stable to tackle a race in Queensland.
FLEMINGTON
SHEPHARD (R1, No. 7)
Four-year-old bay gelding
7: 4-2-0
(Sea The Moon – Funseeker)
Trainer: Peter Moody
Northern Hemisphere bred stayer who has a stack of potential. He’s won four of his seven starts and he won with authority at Ballarat last start. If he can add another win his trainer-owner and breeder Peter Moody might be able to start looking towards the spring.
Winning chance: Looks perfectly placed to win. Odds: $3.90r
KHOEKHOE (R2, No. 1)
Two-year-old colt
(Turffontein – Walvis Bay)
3: 2-0-0
Trainer: Matt Cumani
Matt Cumani has branded him the best horse he has trained and he’s already plotting a path to the Caulfield Guineas. Rocketed home to win The Showdown over 1200m at Caulfield last start when he looked beaten. 1400m should be right up his alley.
Winning chance: Excellent although inside draw and query on speed could make things difficult. Odds: $2.50
DJANGO FREEMAN (R8, No. 5)
Four-year-old stallion
(Campanologist – Donna Lavinia)
6: 3-3-0
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
No more interesting runner at Flemington than last year’s runner-up in the German Derby who makes his long awaited Australian debut. His trainer Robert Hickmott is setting him for the spring features and expects him to run a forward race.
Winning chance: Uncertain as he hasn’t raced for ages and having to cope with a heavy track but he’s being set for Group 1 races so expect he’s got the capabilities. Hickmott thrilled with his work on Tuesday. Odds: $5.
EAGLE FARM
ISOTOPE (R6, No. 7)
Two-year-old filly
(Deep Field – Great Dansaar)
2: 2-0-0
Trainer: Tony Gollan
Two-year-old filly who made everyone stand up and take notice with a ten length win at her debut at Doomben. That was followed by another easy win at the Sunshine Coast.
Winning chance: Very good. This is her toughest task though. Odds: $2.30.
KINANE (R7, No. 5)
Three-year-old gelding
(Reliable Man – Tres Rapide)
4: 2-2-0
Trainer: Chris Waller
Offers of up to $2.8 million from Hong Kong have been turned down for this exciting three-year-old He’s only had four starts and outclassed his rivals to win the Frank Packer Plate at Randwick last start.
Winning chance: Excellent. He showed a remarkable turn of foot to win at Randwick and this looks easier. Odds: $2
KEMENTARI (R8, No. 1)
Five-year-old gelding
(Lonhro – Yavanna)
22: 4-5-5
Trainer: James Cummings
The enigmatic galloper has had three starts since his return to racing after failing at stud. James Cummings has declared he’s ready to win which he needs to if he’s going to get back to the top level. Otherwise his career is at the crossroads.
Winning chance: He has the form to win this as he finished close-up behind Trekking when he resumed but he’s Kementari. Odds: $5