The Everest: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy run the rule over every runner

Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Throughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy sift through 12 world-class sprinters and determine who is ready to conquer The TAB Everest. Plus, which horses are attracting the big money.

• Ultimate guide to The Everest

• ‘Over the odds’: The forgotten horse of the Everest

After all his years studying form and betting on races, Ron Dufficy, has admitted Saturday’s The Everest at Royal Randwick has presented him with a real dilemma.

“I don’t think I’ve ever done the form on a top level race when I couldn’t definitively rule out any runner,’’ Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy said. “Every horse has a real chance to win this race. Everyone will have their opinion about The Everest because they know these sprinters so well. It’s a fascinating race.’’

The final field and barrier draw have been announced and now there’s two days left to try and sift through 12 world class sprinters and determine who is ready to conquer Everest. Dufficy and The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas debate the merits of each Everest runner.

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Santa Ana Lane is the favourite for The Everest. Picture: Getty Images

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SANTA ANA LANE

Dufficy: Santa Ana Lane ticked an important box first-up when he proved he has returned from Hong Kong in top order with his fast-finishing second in the Gilgai Stakes behind Sunlight. With Nature Strip in the field for The Everest, there will be the solid tempo up front that “Santa” needs to produce his best. At his past two preparations, he has won second-up over the Randwick 1200m in the Premiere Stakes from Shoals and In Her Time in track record time last year before he exploded away with the TJ Smith Stakes in autumn, beating Osborne Bulls, Sunlight, Pierata and Redzel. This race sets up beautifully for him again. His trainer Anthony Freedman has a habit of getting these “Grand Finals” right. Santa Ana Lane has to be one of the hardest to beat.

Thomas: You are right, Duff, “Santa” is a big-match player. He was absolutely dominant in the TJ Smith, beating many of his Everest rivals with ease. This race should be run similarly to the TJ, which brings Santa Ana Lane right into the contest. He was very good when resuming at Flemington and his second-up record is superb. He’s a deserved favourite and will be finishing faster than anything else in the race.

TAB BIG BETS ON SANTA ANA LANE

$3000 @ $6 (May 17)

$2000 @ $4.60 (October 14) ** three separate bets **

$1400 the win / $600 the place @ $6/$2.25 {October 4}

$1000 the win / $500 the place @ $6/$2.25 {October 5}

$500 each-way @ $11/$3.50 {March 31}

$2500 @ $10.58 [collect $26,450] on Flit (won Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 12) | Santa Ana Lane (TAB Everest) {October 9}

$200 @ $90.75 [collect $18,150] on Santa Ana Lane (won T.J. Smith Stakes at Randwick on April 6) | Winx (won Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick on April 13) | Santa Ana Lane (TAB Everest) {February 14}

$2000 @ $41.40 [collect $82,800] on Santa Ana Lane (TAB Everest) | Warning (2019 Victoria Derby) {October 14}

$1000 @ $102.96 [collect $102,960] on California Salto (won Newcastle Race 6 today) | Santa Ana Lane (TAB Everest) | Vow And Declare (2019 Caulfield Cup) [October 15}

$1000 @ $45 [collect $45,000] on Santa Ana Lane (TAB Everest) | Finche (2019 Melbourne Cup) [October 8}

PIERATA

Dufficy: Pierata’s two runs back this spring have been fantastic. He resumed in the Concorde Stakes, when he just missed running down Redzel, before his win in The Shorts. He’s a more mature horse this spring and is racing at the top of his game. He seems to have really reacted to being trained as a sprinter now. They were in the middle of nowhere trying to make him run a mile last season. Pierata ticks a lot of boxes here with his adaptability enabling him to be ridden on or off speed. He handles all track conditions and it is very hard not to include him among the main chances.

Thomas: Pierata won the All Aged Stakes at the end of his autumn campaign to finally secure that elusive Group 1 win but I agree he has returned an even better racehorse this spring. He was tremendous beating all but Redzel in the Concorde, reeling off that scorching final 600m of 31.61s. He ran right up to that effort with a brilliant win in The Shorts. The month between runs ensures he goes into The Everest with a keen sprinting edge. He should settle in the front half of the field and be poised to strike from the turn. Pierata’s preparation has been perfect for The Everest.

How will The TAB Everest field settle in running?

This is how @RNSWStewards see the race potentially playing out! pic.twitter.com/s38yySFa6Q

— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 16, 2019

REDZEL

Dufficy: What can you say about Redzel? He has put $15.5 million prizemoney in the bank, his spring form is outstanding, he will do his thing riding the speed and give a great sight. He won the Concorde Stakes first-up brilliantly then ran well in The Shorts for third to Pierata. The Snowdens are great “Grand Final” trainers and Redzel is right in the mix.

Thomas: Redzel is a marvellous sprinter and he seems to really come into his own at this time of year. He’s won both Everests brilliantly, settling on speed and controlling the race. He could easily do the same here, Ronnie. Nature Strip probably leads and Redzel just sits off him ready to pounce. As you pointed out, Redzel’s two runs back this spring have been very good, he seems to be going as well as ever. He has an undeniable chance for an Everest three-peat.

TAB BIG BETS ON PIERATA

$7000 @ $5 {October 5}

$1500 @ $5 {September 25}

$1500 @ $5 {October 2}

$1250 @ $5 {September 24}

$1240 @ $5 {October 14}

$1000 @ $14.40 [collect $14,400] on Pierata (won The Shorts at Randwick on September 21) | Pierata (TAB Everest) {September 21}

NATURE STRIP

Dufficy: Most people have written off Nature Strip at 1200m but I’m not one of them. This horse looks in amazing order. He has bluffed them out of the lead. Now it is all up to him if he can pace himself. If he can relax to a certain extent then he will run a lot better than some people think. The track has to play right for him on the day. I have no doubt he will lead and he is capable of winning this race.

Thomas: Remarkable to think this horse has started favourite in 17 of his 18 starts, 11 times he has been odds-on, he’s a last-start Group 1 winner yet he is at $17 for The Everest. As you pointed out Duff, this underlines the extraordinary depth to this field. He is probably going to lead because this is the way he races best, when allowed to stride along at his high-cruising speed. Fit, in-form and a very good value runner at big odds because he is going to be in this race for a long way.

TAB BIG BETS ON NATURE STRIP

$500 @ $17 {October 14}

$400 @ $17 {October 9}

$300 each-way @ $15/$4.50 {October 9}

$300 @ $15 {April 29}

$200 each-way @ $17/$5 {October 9}

TREKKING

Dufficy: Trekking has muscled into the Everest winning the Schillaci Stakes last Saturday. He might be the last horse into the race but punters shouldn’t forget about him. I would have thought 1400m would suit him better but he has been prepared for The Everest and comes off a strong win at 1100m. To think some people are asking me, ‘Is Trekking a rough hope?’, which shows you the depth and quality of this field because we are talking about a Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap winner and a last-start Group 2 winner. He’s an outsider but again this underlines the incredible depth to this field.

Thomas: Godolphin did target the Schillaci as their plan to get Trekking into The Everest and mission accomplished. This is obviously a much tougher race but write him off at your peril. Trekking is going to appreciate being ridden conservatively off the expected fast early tempo and he will be strong late. I think he is Godolphin’s second-string behind Alizee but he is capable of a top three finish.

TAB BIG BETS ON TREKKING

$200 @ $21 {October 12}

Trekking secured the last slot in The Everets after winning the Schillaci Stakes. Picture: AAP

CLASSIQUE LEGEND

Dufficy: I love this horse. Although he lost a few admirers last start, I’m still very much on his side. He just got too far back in the Premiere Stakes but his run was very good when you analyse his closing sectionals. I feel he will handle the pressure of this race well. There is enough improvement in him to win an Everest.

Thomas: What sticks in my mind about Classique Legend is how effusive trainer Les Bridge has been in his praise of this horse. Bridge is a master horseman and has trained many topliners over the years but I’ve rarely heard him being so bullish about a horse. Classique Legend is very lightly raced but his two runs this spring show he can mix it at this high level. Can he run top three? Absolutely. Can he win? Most definitely.

TAB BIG BETS ON CLASSIQUE LEGEND

$2000 @ $8 {September 20}

$1200 @ $11 {May 10}

$1000 @ $8 {September 18}

$889 @ $9 {July 8}

$500 the win / $800 the place @ $9/$3 {August 22}

$100 @ $159.39 [collect $15,939] on Richmond v GWS (2019 AFL Grand Final) | Bivouac (won Golden Rose at Rosehill on September 28) | Flit (won Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on October 12) | Classique Legend (TAB Everest) {September 25}

$500 @ $31.50 [collect $15,750] on Fiery Red (won Warwick Farm Race 1 on August 28) | Classique Legend (TAB Everest) {August 27}

$150 @ $72 [collect $10,800] on James Tedesco (2019 Dally M Medal) | Classique Legend (TAB Everest) {July 11}

TEN SOVEREIGNS

Dufficy: I am finding it hard to line up Ten Sovereigns but we do know he is trained by one of the world’s very best trainers in Aidan O’Brien and will be ridden by Ryan Moore, one of the world’s very best jockeys. Obviously, his connections have said he needs a dry track to show his best and it looks like we will get that for Saturday. He was terrific winning the July Cup and could be the sleeping giant in this field.

Thomas: Ten Sovereigns is a northern hemisphere three-year-old getting only 0.5kg off the older horses on Saturday. But his demolition job of the July Cup field was impossible to ignore and suggests he will be hard to beat in The Everest. He was slow away at his next start when unplaced at York over 1006m and he won’t want to make a mistake leaving the barriers against this crack field. The decision of Ryan Moore’s to make the trip to Sydney tells you Coolmore believe this colt can win The Everest.

TAB BIG BETS ON TEN SOVEREIGNS

$500 @ $51 {September 3}

$500 @ $21 {October 15}

$500 @ $15 {September 15}

$400 @ $15 {October 10}

$250 each-way @ $15/$4.50 {October 10}

Irish sprinter Ten Sovereigns adds X-factor to The Everest. Picture: Getty Images

ALIZEE

Dufficy: She is a terrific mare, Alizee. I feel she is absolutely spot on for a peak performance. She has an explosive 200m sprint that can put a field away. The query I have is can she sustain her sprint in a high pressure race like The Everest? When I looked back on some of her big wins, she has travelled well and sprinted brilliantly when asked but this race is going to be hard for her to get into a rhythm given the pressure. How she copes with The Everest pressure is the question she has to answer.

Thomas: I remember James Cummings saying after Alizee’s unlucky third in the Memsie Stakes at the end of August that her next run would be at Randwick on October 19. So, although Godolphin only named her for their slot last week, she has been set for Everest Day. Alizee is lethal fresh and particularly at Randwick over 1200m when the track is firm. I take your point about the pressure but Alizee will be ridden conservatively and unleashed late. I’m not going to say she can’t win.

TAB BIG BETS ON ALIZEE

$1000 @ $11 {August 3}

$1000 @ $11 {October 13}

$1000 @ $11 {October 15}

$900 @ $11 {October 10}

$500 each-way @ $11/$3.35 {October 12}

$1000 @ $39 [collect $39,000] on Cosmic Force (won Roman Consul Stakes at Randwick on October 12) | Alizee (TAB Everest) {October 8}

SUNLIGHT

Dufficy: She was the champion three-year-old sprinter last season winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes, Newmarket Handicap and William Reid Stakes so we know she performs on the big stage. She is fully wound up now after three runs from a spell, including her great win over Santa Ana Lane last start. We know she will be tough under pressure and run another very competitive race.

Thomas: Sunlight is a courageous mare right back to her best with her Gilgai win last start. She’s a multiple Group 1 winner with an admirable on-speed racing pattern. Her effort to run third in the TJ earlier this year behind Santa Ana Lane was outstanding given the torrid, wide run she endured. Another with an undeniable winning chance.

TAB BIG BETS ON SUNLIGHT

$4000 @ $15 {October 5}

$1500 @ $11 {September 5}

$1400 @ $15 {September 21}

$500 @ $11 {August 29}

$400 @ $15 {September 16}

$150 @ $315 [collect $47,250] on Sunlight (won Gilgai Stakes at Flemington on October 5) | Kolding (won TAB Epsom at Randwick on October 5) | Sunlight (TAB Everest) {September 30}

Trainer Tony McEvoy has Sunlight ready to peak in The Everest. Picture: AAP

IN HER TIME

Dufficy: In Her Time is a rank outsider but is it a case of out of sight, out of mind? She hasn’t raced this spring but although that might seem an unusual preparation make no mistake she can win The Everest. This mare is a specialist first-up winning five races, including the 2017 Premiere Stakes, 2018 The Galaxy and the Lightning Stakes earlier this year. This tells me she has the ability to be a factor in a very open Everest.

Thomas: She is the forgotten runner, Ronnie. Like Sunlight, you know with In Her Time that when she is fit and ready, she is more than capable of holding her own against the very best sprinters in training. She has beaten or matched motors with virtually every horse in this Everest field. The fact she is the $26 outsider is overs and a reflection on the sheer quality of this field.

TAB BIG BETS ON IN HER TIME

$750 the win / $250 the place @ $26/$6.88 {October 14}

$500 @ $26 {October 14}

$320 @ $15 {October 7}

$300 @ $26 {October 14}

$300 @ $15 {June 5}

$100 @ $288 [collect $28,800] on Kapajack (won Rosehill Race 6 on June 1) | Trekking (won TAB Stradbroke Handicap at Eagle Farm on June 8) | In Her Time (TAB Everest) {June 1}

ARCADIA QUEEN

Dufficy: Another amazing mare who is very strong in her races. What she did in Perth as a three-year-old filly last summer was just incredible. The ratings experts have her second-to-none on ability. She has to come back from 1300m to 1200m to win this race and if she can, she is close to a champion. And she could well be a champion. If she is within four lengths of the field on straightening she will be hard to hold out at the finish.

Thomas: I was so impressed by her acceleration in the Theo Mark Stakes, she put that race away in a couple of strides. She goes into The Everest without a run for five weeks but I’m comfortable with that as her campaign has been geared to ensure she has the speed in her legs for The Everest. Arcadia Queen will be strong late and has the class to win.

TAB BIG BETS ON ARCADIA QUEEN

$10,000 @ $7 {October 3}

$10,000 @ $6 {October 12}

$2500 @ $6 {October 14}

$1640 @ $6 {October 12}

$500 the win / $1000 the place @ $11/$3.50 {June 23}

$500 @ $24.50 [collect $12,250] on Bivouac (won Golden Rose at Rosehill on September 28) | Arcadia Queen (TAB Everest) {September 21}

$3750 @ $28 [collect $105,000] on Arcadia Queen (TAB Everest) | Victorem (2019 Kosciuszko) [October 6}

Arcadia Queen has drawn well and has the talent to be right in the finish. Picture: AAP

YES YES YES

Dufficy: Yes Yes Yes is a very good addition to this field and I keep looking at this colt’s 53kg. Lesser three-year-olds have been competitive in The Everest than this top class colt who is peaking at just the right time. I feel he just might measure right up with his lightweight and blinkers. I can also envisate this colt positioned between the speed horses and the backmarkers. Map-wise, he has enough speed to slot in behind the leading bunch and be given every opportunity. I rate him a big chance.

Thomas: Yes Yes loomed up to win the Golden Rose last start but was edged out by Bivouac after a stirring struggle. I like the fact this colt has had a testing 1400m run this spring and that will stand him in good stead coming back to a 1200m, high-pressure Everest. He’s the only three-year-old in the race, has only 53kg and there is an ‘X-factor’ about him.

TAB BIG BETS ON YES YES YES

$900 @ $11 {October 15}

$650 @ $11 {October 15}

$500 @ $26 {July 26}

$500 @ $26 {September 28}

$450 @ $51 {July 19}

Originally published as The Everest: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy run the rule over every runner