The Early Oil: Michael Manley looks at Caulfield Cup Day

HANG on to your coin until the final race is the advice from the experts who have found plenty of value for the Caulfield Cup meeting. Here’s the best bets to make sure you leave cashed up!

WAITING until the final race on Caulfield Cup Day to reach a Peaceful State of mind when your best bet sails home might seem an eternity for punters but not this week.

Leading form analysis Michael Manley recommends punters hang on to their coin until the final race and watch their patience be rewarded.

Now, we all know keeping your powder dry until the last race of the day is particularly difficult, so Manley points to Ringerdingdinging in the second race as his top value bet.

TOP PICKS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

FIRST TO LAST: CAULFIELD CUP FINISH

BEST BET

PEACEFUL STATE (R10, No. 5)

No luck last start at Caulfield. He’s a classy stallion who will be suited by the likely fast speed in this and should rocket home.

VALUE BET

RINGERDINGDINGDING (R2, No. 6)

EARLY QUADDIE

2,3,4,5,6,9/1,4,5,6,8,9,10/2,3,4,6/3,10

$100 flexi for 29 per cent

BIG6

2,3,6/3,10/3,7/2,6,13,14,18/1,3,4,11/5,8

$100 flexi for 20.83 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 3,7

Race 8: 1,2,6,13,14,17,18

Race 9: 1,3,4,7,11

Race 10: 5,6,8,9

$100 flexi for 35 per cent

RACE 1: 12.15PM QMS Media Plate (1400M)

GREAT run by KHULAASA (1) against the boys last start. She was held up between the 400m and the 300m and when she got the run she burst through to be just beaten by two smart horses in Wild Planet and Ranier. Query is how talented the two fillies are which won their maidens in superb style at their debuts. They were Darren Weir’s DELUSIONS (9) who strolled in at Swan Hill running the fastest last 400m and 200m for the meeting. The other is Khulaasa’s stablemate ZARGOS (8) who won impressively at Bendigo. EAWASE (3) is a stakes winner who hasn’t had much luck in recent starts. Blinkers go on MUTHEERA (10) for the first time and she’s shown talent.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Delusions $3.70-$3.10

THE TRAINER

TOM DABERNIG

KHULAASA: “Good run last start at Flemington. She’s nice and fit and she’s a good each-way chance.”

BET: KHULAASA each-way (confidence rating: 8/10)

RACE 2: 12.50PM POLYTRACK GOTHIC STAKES (1400M)

Intriguing race. RINGERDINGDING (6) knuckled down like a smart horse over the final 200m to swamp some smart older horses at Bendigo. He recorded the fastest last 400m and 200m for the day. YULONG JANUARY (3) hasn’t put a foot wrong in his three starts. Put together Swan Hill wins before going to Randwick and winning on a heavy track. No horse has got closer than two lengths to him in the three starts. As everyone knows RANIER (4) was held up and was a certainty beaten behind WILD PLANET (1) at Flemington last start. He’s again drawn in and he’s now had five starts for four seconds and a third. Wild Planet’s win was somewhat overshadowed because of the hard luck story but he was trapped wide for most of the race. SIGNORE FOX (5) failed in the Ming Dynsasty but started favourite. He’s since won his last two starts. ZOUTORI (10) resumed with a good win and had strong form earlier in the year including third behind Vassilator at Flemington over 1400m

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Yulong January $3.90-$4.20

Ranier $3.20-$2.50 ($900 @ $3.20, $350 @ $3.20, $500 @ $2.90, $527 @ $2.90, $556 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.60)

Ringerdingding $10-$6.50

THE TRAINER

DARREN WEIR.

RINGERDINGDING: “Great win last start and he’s on the improve. Looks a great each-way bet.”

BET: RINGERDINGDING each-way (confidence rating 8/10)

RACE 3: 1.25PM CAULFIELD SPRINT (1000M)

EDUARDO (6) has been brave in his two seconds at his past two starts. Two starts ago he was grabbed by SPENDING TO WIN (4) over 1100m at Caulfield and last start at Flemington, I Am Excited appeared from seemingly nowhere to grab him. He should get a nice run behind the speed machines SUPER TOO (5) and QUILISTA (2). He’s back to 1000m but he tries hard. Super Too finished second in this race last year. Quilista over-raced in that Flemington race and did well to hang on for fourth. Three-year-old colt THORONDOR (9) has good formlines through Encryption who he finished second to at Flemington over 1200m. MISS LEONIDAS (8) is a gifted mare taking on her toughest task.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Miss Leonidas $10-$11-$9.50 ($250 @ $9.50)

THE TRAINER

DAVID EUSTACE

BONS AWAY: “He’s racing well at the moment but he has finally drawn a barrier and he should win.”

BET: EDUARDO the win (confidence rating 7/10)

RACE 4: 2PM ALINGHI STAKES (1100M)

Gold Coast trainer Toby Edmonds has two great chances in ACQUME (10) and FROMWITHIN (8). Acqume is having her first start for Edmonds but she boasts strong formlines from her Sydney autumn carnival campaign. First-up she ran second to She Will Reign and then two starts later she split I Am Excited and Houtzen at stakes level. From Within has won her past three starts in Queensland easily, each time leading and winning easily. Darren Weir’s GREY SHADOW (4) won her last start at Caulfield taking her record to two from two there. NIETA (6) didn’t get going in the Moir Stakes but she has a touch of class and finished third in this race last year. SOOTHING (5) finished off nicely last start at Caulfield for sixth behind Grey Shadow.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Jorda $15-$11

Nieta $13-$12 ($222 @ $13, $500 e/w @ $12/$3.30, $200 @ $13, $200 @ $12)

From Within $3.30-$3.70

THE TRAINER

DARREN WEIR

GREY SHADOW: “She’s flying. She loves Caulfield and she’s got a great draw.”

BET: ACQUME each-way (confidence rating 6.5/10)

RACE 5: 2.35PM ETHEREAL STAKES (2000M)

Former Kiwi filly VERRY ELLEEGANT (6) should love the step up to 2000m based on her Australian debut when third behind stablemate and subsequent Group 1 winner Amphitrite in the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes at Flemington. She was held up until the 200m mark and then sprinted hard. In the same race ARISTIA (3) was held up for the whole straight and she went to the line hard held to finish ninth. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR’s (2) win over 1800m at Flemington couldn’t be faulted where she sat on the speed, controlled the race and the sprinted clear for 3.25 length win over YULONG METEOR (8). SCENIC SIGHT (5) ran on strongly from well back to win over 1600m at Ballarat in A Class 1 defeating TRUE MAGIC (13). DARK CONFIDANT (9) ran on for eighth in the Edward Manifold Stakes.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Aristia $8.50-$6.50 ($1500 @ $8.50, $1300 @ $6.50)

Verry Elleegant $3.30-$2.40 ($11,110 @ $2.80, $5000 @ $2.60, $10,000 @ $2.50,

$4120 @ $2.40)

THE TRAINER

MARK NEWNHAM

GREYSFUL GLAMOUR: ““Everything is suggesting that 2000 metres will suit her as her best three runs have been over 1600m and 1800m.”

BET: VERRY ELLEEGANT the win (8.5/10)

Extra Brut wins the UCI Stakes. Picture: AAP

RACE 6: 3.10PM LADBROKES CLASSIC (2000M)

SIKORSKY (10) had to work hard in the early stages at Flemington last start and despite that still looked likely to win but was run down by the impressive EXTRA BRUT (3) and that pair could again fight this out. On that occasion Sikorsky drew barrier 12 and this time he’s in barrier 4. A cross-over noseband also has gone on. Extra Brut is a powerful colt who sat wide and proved too strong last time. CHAPADA (12) annihilated his rivals to win his Wangaratta Maiden by five lengths and his trainer Mike Moroney has a big opinion of him. TAVIRUN (7) was too bad to be true in the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill last start. Go on win at The Valley before that. THINKIN’ BIG (1) has been racing well in Sydney and hit the front too early last start when third in the Spring Championship Stakes. Plenty of other chances headed by MUSWELLBROOK (2) and LOUIE THE LEGEND (9).

SUGGESTED BET: SIKORSKY EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Thinkin’ Big $4.40-$4.20

Chapanda $14-$16-$14

THE TRAINER

JAMES CUMMINGS

BEST OF DAYS: “He’s racing very well, but I’d like him to prove to me that he’s a capable 2000m horse but he’s in his right race and is nicely weighted.”

BET: BEST OF DAYS the win, saver TRAP FOR FOOLS the win (confidence 9/10)

Trap For Fools was quite impressive in defeat behind Winx last start.

RACE 7: 3.50PM LADBROKES COONGY CUP (2000M)

BEST OF DAYS (7) finished off strongly last start at Caulfield when just beaten by the in-form Furrion. On that effort the step up from 1700m to 2000m will suit and he looks nicely weighted with 54.5kgs. LIFE LESS ORDINARY (4) finished on strongly for fifth in that race. TRAP FOR FOOLS (3) took up his customary role as a leader last start and returned to his best fighting on bravely for close-up fifth behind Winx. He’s going to take catching in this. SAMOVARE (8) battled on well behind I Am A Star at Moonee Valley last start. She finished second in this race last year to Kiwia. PRIZED ICON (2) and SIR CHARLES ROAD (5) have claims.

SUGGESTED BET: BEST OF DAYS THE WIN, SAVER TRAP FOR FOOLS THE WIN.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

Prized Icon $12-$9

Trap For Fools $6.50-$4.20 ($3,100 @ $4.20)

CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)

Caulfield, Saturday 4.40pm

1 Best Solution (Saeed Bin Suroor) P Cosgrave 57.5kg

2 The Cliffsofmoher (Aidan O’Brien) H Bowman 56.5kg

3 Chestnut Coat (Yoshito Yahagi) Y Kawada 55.5kg

4 Jon Snow (Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman) D M Lane 55.5kg

5 Sound Check (Michael Moroney) J Childs 55.5kg

6 Ace High (David Payne) D Oliver 55kg

7 The Taj Mahal (Liam Howley) J B McDonald 55kg

8 Duretto (Andrew Balding) D Dunn 54.5kg

9 Red Verdon (Ed Dunlop) Z Purton 54kg

10 Vengeur Masque (Michael Moroney) P M Moloney 54kg

11 Ventura Storm (David & B Hayes & T Dabernig) R Bayliss 54kg

12 Mighty Boss (Mick Price) T Clark 53.5kg

13 Homesman (Liam Howley) B J Melham 53kg

14 Kings Will Dream (Darren Weir) C Williams 53kg

15 Sole Impact (Hirofumi Toda) R Sakai (a0) 53kg

16 Gallic Chieftain (Darren Weir) 52.5kg

17 Night’s Watch (Darren Weir) B Allen (a0) 52kg

18 Youngstar (Chris Waller) K McEvoy 51.5kg

19e Patrick Erin (Chris Waller) C Brown 52kg

20e Jaameh (David & B Hayes & T Dabernig) C J Parish 50kg

RACE 8: 4.40PM STELLA ARTOIS CAULFIELD CUP (2400M)

Cracking Caulfield Cup trial last week from THE CLIFFSOFMOHER (2) when fourth behind Benbatl. He ran his last 600m in 33.71 seconds which was the seventh fastest for the meeting. He can back-up quickly as he demonstrated at Royal Ascot this year when he finished fourth in the G1 Prince Of Wales Stakes and backed-up three days later to finish third in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes. KINGS WILL DREAM (14) has had a faultless preparation with four excellent lead-up runs with placings at Group 1 level at his past three starts. The last one was at Flemington when third behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes. He’ll love carrying 53kgs. HOMESMAN (13) is a tough galloper who worked too hard early last Saturday in the Caulfield Stakes when he tired to finish seventh. YOUNGSTAR (18) ran a great second behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes and she’ll only carry 51.5kg. ACE HIGH (6) is an under-rated stayer. Internationals BEST SOLUTION (1), SOUND CHECK (5), DURETTO (8) and RED VERDON (9) boast strong European form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS:

The Cliffsofmoher $6.50-$7 ($13,500 @ $7)

Ace High $11-$10 ($2000 @ $11)

Homesman $13-$11 ($6500 @ $12)

Kings Will Dream $5 unchanged ($500 @ $5 multiple times)

Youngstar $5-$5.50

THE TRAINER

SAEED BIN SUROOR

BEST SOLUTION: “He is a multiple G1 winner. He has improved this year, and I am very pleased the way he has been finishing off his races. He’s ready to go.”

BET: THE CLIFFSOFMOHER each-way (7/10)

RACE 9: 5.15PM SCHWEPPES TRISTARC STAKES (1400M)

SAVATIANO (11) was held up when bursting to go at Flemington last start between the 500m and the 150m and flew when she got into the clear for second behind INVINCIBELLA (3). She’s drawn out which could suit at the end of the three day carnival. Invincibella will again take beating. PROMPT RESPONSE (1) will strip fitter for her first-up run in the Group 2 Golden Pendant at Rosehill. She’s a Group 1 winner. Gai Waterhouse has a great record in this race with three wins in the past seven years. Stablemate SHUMOOKH (7) is a lightly raced promising mare who is racing well. INVINCIBLE GEM (4)

ran on powerfully for impressive first-up sixth behind Santa Ana Lane at Group 2 level at Randwick.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Savatiano $4.40-$4.80-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.80)

THE TRAINER

JAMES CUMMINGS

SAVATIANO: “She was desperately unlucky last time at Flemington. Since then she’s tightened up even more and she’ll have another opportunity to show strength at the end of 1400m.”

THE BET: SAVATIANO each-way (8.5/10)

Savatiano made up heaps of ground late last start after being held up.

RACE 10: 5.50PM MOONGA STAKES (1400M)

Should be plenty of speed which should play into the hands of PEACEFUL STATE (5) and MR SNEAKY (8). Peaceful State had a torrid run when 12th in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last start. Go on his first-up second behind Land Of Plenty at Moonee Valley before that. He also finished second in the Australian Guineas in March behind Grunt. Mr Sneaky finished a close-up sixth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes finishing off nicely. DREAMFORCE (6) held on well for sixth at Flemington over 1200m behind I Am Excited. His best form is over 1400m. SIRCCONI (9) was unlucky last week when he finished third behind Iconoclasm as he was held up for a run. TOM MELBOURNE (7) shouldn’t be far away.

SUGGESTED BET: PEACEFUL STATE THE WIN.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Peaceful State $4.40-$4 ($200 @ $4.40, $3,000 @ $4.20 averaged out)

THE TRAINER

CHRIS WALLER

TOM MELBOURNE: “Poor Tom is just going to need a little bit of

luck from the gate, asking him to do it at both ends isn’t ideal so we will just see.”

THE BET: PEACEFUL STATE the win (9/10)