The squeeze for Cox Plate spots could leave two-time placegetter Humidor on the outer
Humidor, who pushed Winx all the way in the 2017 Cox Plate, could be squeezed out of this year’s race as Moonee Valley officials have the unenviable task of finalising the 14-horse field. WHO MAKES IT?
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The Cox Plate fates of several well-credentialed gallopers hang in the balance as Moonee Valley Racing Club officials agonise over the make-up of the final 14-horse field for Saturday’s $5 million championship.
The club’s committee will be briefed on Tuesday by Racing Victoria’s Greg Carpenter before culling as many six high-class contenders as the crush for places intensified with Mr Quickie’s emergence as a likely acceptor.
Group 1 form, with an emphasis on 2019 results, is likely to form the basis of a selection process certain to spark controversy and discussion.
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Six horses are guaranteed their places which are the three internationals invitees — TAB $3.60 favourite Lys Gracieux, Kluger and Danceteria and the trio of locals who are chasing the $1 million Ladbrokes bonus after winning ballot exempt races — Homesman, Cape Of Good Of Hope and Harlem.
MVRC chief executive Michael Browell indicated that the following horses were all likely to be included — Mystic Journey, Avilius, Magic Wand, Black Heart Bart, Verry Elleegant and Kings Will Dream.
The remaining two spots are likely to fall to either Mr Quickie, Castelvecchio, Te Akau Shark and Humidor, who twice finished in Cox Plate placings behind Winx but has not won a Group 1 since the 2018 Memsie Stakes.
Racing Victoria stewards will monitor the trackwork of Avilius on Monday morning as he pulled up with blood in one nostril after he worked at the Valley on Saturday morning.
Browell said he expected the connections of Black Heart Bart to pay the $200,000 late nomination fee this morning and with his recent form he was a good chance to get in.
Browell said the clamour for places in the first Cox Plate to be contested without four-time winner Winx since 2014 presented a complex challenge for officials.
Browell said the main criteria for the nine member MVRC committee was strong Group 1 form over 1600m to 2000m in the previous year and also whether a horse had the X-factor.
He pointed that the committee will also vote on the order of the four emergencies.
Browell said the connections of some Cox Plate aspirants such as Castelvecchio, Te Akau Shark and Mr Quickie had also been advised to nominate for other races on the program.
He said they were looking at having a field of 14 plus four emergences and the biggest field in recent times had been 12.
He pointed out last year the committee demoted Trap For Fools from the field because he hadn’t been placed in a Group 1, 2 or 3 race in the previous 12 months.
Horses they had promoted in the past because of the X-factor were 2013 winner Shamus Award and 2010 winner So You Think.
JOURNEY TO THE UNKNOWN
Adam Trinder assesses taking on Japanese star Lys Gracieux in this Saturday’s Cox Plate as a daunting task but one he’s ready for with Mystic Journey.
“Japanese horses are very good and they also travel and perform. It’s one hell of a task taking on a horse like Lys Gracieux,” Trinder said yesterday.
“I’ve got confidence in my mare. On Australian formlines I wouldn’t say she’s any better but she’s comparable to any other runner.
“She’s got the form around horses such as Hartnell. I think we’re a genuine winning chance but we’re stepping into an unknown realm against a horse like her.
“The strength of the Japanese form was there for all to see on Saturday.”
Trinder pointed out there were excuses when Mystic Journey finished fifth in the Turnbull Stakes and the effort convinced him she could run 2000m.
“I thought it was a top run. We were always going back but she half stepped away slowly which meant she settled back last. It was just too far back.
“Then she was held up and didn’t get clear galloping room until 100m to go and then she hit the line with enthusiasm.”
“She went home faster than Mr Quickie and took ground off Vow And Declare and Kings Will Dream. She kept on going after the line and galloped strongly and she was in front on pulling up and she galloped strongly to the 1600m.”
Trinder said the Turnbull run didn’t take anything out of the mare as she really only had half a run.
He said he’s stepped her work up as a result and he was happy with her work at Launceston on Saturday morning.
He will stick to his usual practice of leaving on the Spirit Of Tasmania on Thursday night and arriving on Friday morning.
COX PLATE CRUNCH
THE CERTAINTIES
AVILIUS
Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Odds: $8
Starts: 21: 11-2-2
The Valley: 1: 0-0-0
Group 1 form last 12 months: 8: 3-0-0
On his day he’s a star. A fast tempo and a track with give in will suit him. He finished fourth in this race last year when he was on a Melbourne Cup preparation. He’s been set for this.
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE
Trainers: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Odds: $9
Starts: 11: 3-1-2
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 1: 1-0-0
Brother to Highland Reel and showed he’s got similar ability to his brother with a strong finishing burst to win his Australian debut in the Caulfield Stakes.
DANCETERIA
Trainer: David Menuisier
Jockey: J. Spencer
Odds: $15
Starts: 10: 5-0-1
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 2: 1-0-0
Boasts possibly the best overseas form going into a Cox Plate with a Group 1 win over 2000m in Germany at his last start which followed a fourth to Enable in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.
HARLEM
Trainers: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Odds: $51
Starts: 34: 5-2-2
The Valley: 2: 0-0-0
Group 1: 4: 1-0-1
Tough underrated galloper who has won the last two Australian Cups. He won’t be far away.
HOMESMAN
Trainer: Liam Howley
Jockey: Ben Melham
Odds: $15
Starts: 16: 5-5-1
The Valley: 2: 1-1-0
Group 1: 2: 0-1-0
Racing in great fashion. He’s been set for this and he’s sure to be in the finish.
KINGS WILL DREAM
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jye McNeil
Odds: $17
Starts: 17: 7-1-4
The Valley: 1: 0-0-0
Group 1: 3: 1-0-0
Almost lost his life in this race last year when he was expected to run a big race. Showed with his last start win in the Turnbull Stakes that he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with.
K LUGER
Trainer: Tomokazu Takano
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Odds: $15
Starts: 22: 5-4-3
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 2: 0-1-0
Classy Japanese galloper who showed in two runs in the Sydney autumn how talented he is with a second to Winx in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and a fourth in the Doncaster.
LYS GRACIEUX
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Damian Lane
Odds: $3.60
Starts: 20: 5-8-4
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 4: 2-1-1
Star Japanese mare who boasts sensational form. At her last start she won the Group 1 Tarazuka Kinen at Hanshin which followeda third placing at Group 1 level in Hong Kong. She’s the star attraction.
MAGIC WAND
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: TBC
Odds: $21
Starts: 18: 2-7-2
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 7: 0-4-1
Her form looks excellent. She’s run second at Group 1 level at her past two starts and at her last one she was beaten by subsequent British Champion Stakes winner Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes.
MYSTIC JOURNEY
Trainer: Adam Trinder
Jockey: Anthony Darmanin
Odds: $7
Starts: 16: 11-1-0
The Valley: 1: 1-0-0
Group 1: 3: 1-1-0
Star Tassie mare who put together seven wins on end before being beaten at her last two starts. Gave away too much start in the Turnbull Stakes. She’s been set for this and sure to run a huge race.
CONTENDERS FOR FINAL FOUR SPOTS
VERRY ELLEEGANT
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: James McDonald
Starts: 14: 7-2-1
Odds: $15
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 5: 2-0-0
Dual Group 1 winner as a three-year-old filly whose last start win at Group 2 level should secure her a spot.
BLACK HEART BART
Trainer: Lindsey Smith
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Odds: $21
Starts: 57: 17-15-4
The Valley: 2: 0-1-0
Group 1: 4: 1-1-0
Veteran who has almost grabbed a spot from nowhere to run in the race due to his shock win in the Underwood Stakes and then a last start second in the Caulfield Stakes.
MR QUICKIE
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Glen Boss
Odds: $17
Starts: 16: 9-2-2
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 4: 1-0-1
Coming off a luckless Caulfield Cup run where despite finishing 11th he was genuinely unlucky. He defeated Vow And Declareto win the Queensland Derby and he finished third behind Gatting in the Makybe Diva Stakes three starts ago.
CASTELEVECCHIO
Trainer: Richard Litt
Jockey: Craig Williams
Odds: $15
Starts: 8: 3-1-2
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 4: 1-1-1
Talented three-year-old colt who was beaten by a smart horse in Shadow Hero last start in the Spring Championship Stakes. Craig Williams has committed to riding him at 49.5kg.
HUMIDOR
Trainers: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Odds: $21
Jockey: TBC
Starts: 36: 8-7-5
The Valley: 2: 0-1-1
Group 1: 5: 0-0-1
Maher and Eustace have trained him specifically for this but he’s on the cusp of missing out due to a lack of form this year. He finished second two years ago and third last year in this and his last run suggests he’s ready to fire.
TE AKAU SHARK
Trainer: Jamie Richards
Jockey: TBC
Odds: $13
Starts: 9: 5-3-0
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 2: 0-1-0
Boom Kiwi who would have booked a spot in this race if he had of won the Epsom instead of finishing second behind Kolding. Still he has an X-factor about him
DREAM CASTLE
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: TBC
Odds: $51
Starts: 17: 7-4-1
The Valley: 0: 0-0-0
Group 1: 5: 1-0-0
English galloper who finished off strongly although ninth in the Caulfield Stakes. He’s a Group 1 winner in Dubai earlier this year.