SuperCoach Racing: Rob Sutherland’s Round 3 stable picks
If you have followed Rob Sutherland’s tips this season you’ll be sitting well within the top 1% and within striking distance of the $10K prize. Check out his Rd 3 stable.
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Last round was one where many stables looked similar – with two Group One races featuring high-priced runners and little value in the supporting Group 2 and Group 3 races I’m tipping that we’ll see some divergence this round.
The Caulfield Cup offers the best value of the Group Ones with favourite Incentivise ($250K) sure to be in every serious stable. But while there’s value there’s also a field of 18 (plus two emergencies) and that spells SC uncertainty.
The Everest (yes yes we know it’s not a true Group One but the field is so we’re classifying it as such – and if the respective boards of Racing NSW and Victoria could just grow up a little and agree that it is a Group One I’m sure the earth would continue to spin unabated) has a smaller field but you need to dig deep to afford them so hopefully you have been building some stable wealth because this is the week you’ll need it.
For those who are new to this column, each week I rank the leading contenders that offer a, hopefully, winning blend of popularity in the betting market and cheap SuperCoach price.
To compare apples with apples I have added a weighting to reflect the different points on offer for Group 1, 2, 3 and non black type races.
Below I list the 25 best rated horses, run through the stable I have selected and then throw in a bit of bonus analysis on the jockeys too.
MY 25 TOP-RATED HORSES FOR ROUND THREE (GROUP 1 IN BOLD)
FROM THIS LIST I HAVE SELECTED THE FOLLOWING STABLE OF 8 HORSES
When you invest in two $500K runners you need to find some bargains elsewhere and that’s what I’m looking for in my first two runners – well that and good metric scores of course!
Kapalua Sunset is making a big step up to G3 class when you consider her only win was last start in a Kyneton maiden – but it was a fair win with the Danny O’Brien filly putting seven lengths on the field. I wouldn’t put cash on her at $2.25 but that’s the beauty of SuperCoach you’re chasing points not profit.
Fangirl is my only non Group runner and while I don’t expect her to pull in huge points I think the points per dollar equation will come out in her favour. The Waller filly was rated a fair chance in the G1 Flight before being scratched and set for this race, and Racenet tipster Jett Hatton rates her highly. At just $75K she’s a gamble worth taking.
Once I had picked all my Group One runners I had $175K left to spend and while the likes of High Supremacy and Promise of Success rate higher I have gone down to G2 Caulfield Sprint entrant Curran. The horse has a terrific strike rate (9 starts 4-3-0) and we still need to build our stable value so I’d prefer to pick a G2 hope that just needs a top three finish to equal or better a non-group winner in terms of points and who could add some value should he jag a win.
Now to my five Group One runners, two of whom go around in the Caulfield Cup and three in the Everest. Cup favourite Incentivise is a lock and load at his price. Hes drawn the absolute carpark and that’s not good with an 18-horse field at Caulfield. But better judges than me map him to get on to the fence without too much trouble and should he manage that he’s a strong winning chance. I’ve doubled down on the horror draws with my other Cup runner, last-start Herbert Power (this track and distance) winner Delphi. If I was looking to save some money here I would have a good look at Duais instead.
And so to The Everest a race I’m spending far more on due to the smaller field and belief that my three picks all have strong chances of finishing with solid point hauls. I’ve dropped a cool million selecting both favourites Nature Strip and Classique Legend and am struggling to split them in terms of captaincy. Nature Strip has the runs on the board this season with a G3 win and second in the G2 Shorts this prep while 2019 Everest champ Classique Legend has had far from a traditional lead up with no races but three trials prior to this race. Eduardo worries me but I’ve stuck with the metric. Speaking of which the best Everest runner on my metric, and final runner in my stable is Home Affairs. The Chris Waller trained three-year-old put 1.6 lengths on Paulele in the Heritage Stakes last start, a win franked when Paulele then spanked the field in the G2 Roman Consul last weekend. The field here is a couple of steps better than anything he’s faced to date, but with just 53kg to carry and Glen Boss on board there’s a lot more than a hint of 2019 Everest winner Yes Yes Yes about this contender.
AND NOW TO THE JOCKEYS
It can get a little boring just backing James McDonald here, but it tends to work and the star hoop has a six-point lead on the next best which are Tommy Berry and Damien Oliver. McDonald once again has a large well balanced book and there’s no shame in sticking with him. I’m thinking I might take a bit of a chance though and leg up Nash Rawiller who has just the seven rides at Randwick but they include excellent chances Zoushack, Handle The Truth, Eduardo and Think It Over.
Originally published as SuperCoach Racing: Rob Sutherland’s Round 3 stable picks
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