Spring racing carnival: Experts pick their budding stars to watch
As the new racing season approaches, the search for the sport’s next star begins again. But who will rise to the occasion? Some of racing’s sharpest minds select three hot spring carnival specials.
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The Royal Randwick meeting next Saturday coincides with the horse’s birthday and the first day of the new racing season – but some things never change in this sport.
Racing’s search for the “next big thing” begins again. Who is ready to turn potential into performance and make their mark during the spring carnival?
Nature Strip is still the nation’s pre-eminent sprinter but there is a posse of young speedsters preparing to take him on during the spring.
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The weight-for-age ranks is still to determine the heir apparent to the mighty Winx while the staying division is also wide open, particularly as it is looking less likely that northern hemisphere-trained stayers will be here in numbers this spring.
So, who are the horses to follow going into the Sydney and Melbourne spring carnivals? I approached some of the nation’s leading form analysts for their opinions and to individually nominate three horses to follow in the new season.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy believes Team Hawkes has some outstanding big-race prospects for the new season, choosing his three to watch all from their stable.
Dufficy has a huge opinion of the Hawkes-trained rising three-year-olds, Doubtland and North Pacific, and boom stayer Master Of Wine.
Doubtland has won his only two starts including the Group 3 Kindergarten Stakes brilliantly while North Pacific ran third on debut to Farnan in the Silver Slipper then resumed with a very impressive win at Rosehill earlier this month.
“I don’t think Doubtland beat much in his two starts last autumn but he did it in the style of a good horse, especially in the Kindergarten with his fantastic finishing sectionals,’’ Dufficy said. “There’s a chance he could be good enough even for The Everest discussions if he wins first-up.
“North Pacific is a lovely horse who oozes class. He is very strong and an ideal Golden Rose- Caulfield Guineas type.’’
Dufficy rates Master Of Wine, who won the Sky High Stakes and ran fourth in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes during the autumn, as the stayer to watch this spring.
“Master Of Wine really came of age in the autumn and is ready for his best preparation in the spring,’’ Dufficy said. “Races like The Metropolitan, Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup are all on the table for him.’’
Timeform’s Gary Crispe has also found unbeaten colt Doubtland as one of his three to follow for the new season.
Crispe said Doubtland “came a long way in a very short period” taking a big step forward off his debut win when making light work of his rivals in the Kindergarten Stakes.
“Doubtland is following the exact same path as Hallowed Crown in 2014, starting his career at the mid-weeks before lining up in the Kindergarten Stakes at his second start,’’ Crispe said.
“He did begin his career a few weeks earlier than Hallowed Crown and they were rated 97 and 96 respectively leading into the Kindergarten which both colts won running to a Timeform rating of 112.
“Hallowed Crown returned the following season to win the Golden Rose at just his fourth start and rounded out his career rated 122 by Timeform.
“Bivouac remains the highest-rated winner of the Kindergarten in recent years at 116 and stablemate Astern was rated 113 when he dead-heated for first in that race then both went on to win the Golden Rose.
“While it’s easy to pick apart who Doubtland has beaten, recent history suggests he is likely to be a major player in the upcoming spring features.
“A rating of 112 just sneaks Doubtland onto Timeform’s two-year-old leaderboard this season and given we only saw him twice, very few have as much upside heading into their three-year-old season.’’
Crispe also nominated another unbeaten juvenile, Melbourne youngster Immortal Love, and the emerging Chris Waller-trained stayer Kinane as horses he expects to make their mark in the new season.
“Immortal Love is the pick of trainer Mick Price’s promising rising three-year-olds and rated 105 on the back of a Flemington win in May,’’ Crispe said.
“A good deal more will be required of Immortal Love if he is to make a significant mark in the spring, but it is a case of so-far-so-good and very few are headed to the Caulfield Guineas with a better profile at this stage.’’
With the query over the participation of international stayers this spring carnival the door is open for a local like the Chris Waller-trained Kinane, according to Crispe.
“Typically, the first port of call in the search for the up-and-coming local stayer is the Australian Derby but that turned into a stamina-sapping slog on testing ground last April with the Kiwi Quick Thinker staying best in what appeared hardly a vintage winner of the race,’’ Crispe said.
“Back on firmer footing two weeks later Quick Thinker was easily swept aside by a rapid improver in Kinane in the Frank Packer Plate. Kinane ran to a 112 rating and will need to improve in the spring but he appeals as a stayer of real talent.
“Kinane was able to come off a Wyong maiden to win the Frank Packer Plate, running away from the Carbine Club 1-2-3 along with the Derby winner, in a fast overall time.
“His win was well up-to-scratch for the race despite his humble base and, while he was below that level when beaten in Queensland next time, the future remains very bright for one that has proven so good so soon.
“With just five runs under his belt it’s hard to imagine we have seen the best of him yet and should ensure more feature wins in store.’’
Sky Racing’s renowned form student Paul Joice is another Doubtland fan.
“Team Hawkes have a potential spring star on their hands with undefeated colt Doubtland,’’ Joice said. “He won two from two in dominant fashion during the autumn and gave every indication he would blossom into his three-year-old season.
“A strong colt with a stunning turn of foot — he could be a Golden Rose horse, a late spring Coolmore Stud Stakes prospect or perhaps even a surprise The Everest contender.’’
Joice found an unraced juvenile filly from the Mark Newnham stable, Invincible Fire, off an unplaced barrier trial earlier this month, before nominating Joe Pride’s talented mare Fasika to complete his top three.
“She has only been seen once at the trials, so the spring might come too soon, but I loved what I saw and wouldn’t be surprised if she burst onto the scene in some of the early spring three-year-old sprints,’’ Joice said. “If she doesn’t happen to reach those heights this time around keep her in mind for the autumn.
“As for Fasika, I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this rising five-year-old mare and spring might be her time to shine. She notched a Group 1 placing before going for a spell and that was at the end of a campaign which didn’t pan out as expected.
“She has the mares’ races at her mercy but I expect they’ll aim a bit higher than that and she wouldn’t be totally out of place in The Everest either.’’
Bookie Michael Sullivan of Bluebet nominated King’s Legacy and Peltzer to dominate the three-year-old races this spring and he’s an admirer of another Team Hawkes galloper, Masked Crusader.
“King’s Legacy was super impressive winning the Sires-Champagne Group 1 double in the autumn and gives the impression he will come back as a bigger and better three-year-old,’’ Sullivan said.
“He is in the right stable with Peter and Paul Snowden and Hugh Bowman looks likely to stick with him. He will be very hard to beat wherever he goes with races such as the Golden Rose and Spring Champion in Sydney or the Caulfield Guineas in Melbourne looking right up his alley.’’
The Gerald Ryan-trained Peltzer is unbeaten in three starts during late autumn, including successive wins at Randwick.
“Peltzer should take improvement from his first preparation and makes his own luck up on the speed,’’ Sullivan said. “The Golden Rose looks a terrific race for him too but think he will win a couple before he heads there.’’
Sullivan said Masked Crusader might still be eligible for restricted class races but is adamant the Team Hawkes-trained sprinter is heading for the top.
“Masked Crusader was super impressive in winning at Randwick back in May after a couple of dominant performances in Victoria,’’ he said.
“The races he will be targeting during the spring are a huge step up from these races but he looks to have enormous ability. His wins were over shorter trips but gives the impression 1400m to a mile would be perfect.
“If he comes back in good order, he could be a lightweight hope in an Epsom or go the Golden Eagle. Team Hawkes will have him primed for a Grand Final somewhere.’’
I’m also expecting big things from Masked Crusader in the spring. He looks an exceptional talent and could even be a chance to contest The Everest-Golden Eagle double.
The Waller-trained Funstar, already a Group 1 winner, is the favourite for just about everything up to 1600m this spring and she appeals as an ideal Epsom contender.
Mamaragan, trained by John Thompson, won the Skyline Stakes on debut then was placed at Group 1 level at his next two starts including his third in the Golden Slipper in an outstanding debut race campaign. I feel he will be a factor in all the major three-year-old races this spring including the Golden Rose.
The 2020-21 racing season makes a low-key start next Saturday before the Group 2 Missile Stakes meeting on August 8. It’s only four weeks to the first Group 1 race of the new season, the Winx Stakes at Royal Randwick on August 22.
The new racing season brings with it renewed hopes, dreams and ambitions – and the search for the sport’s next champion begins again.
BUDDING STARS
Racing experts have their say on the horses to watch this spring.
RAY THOMAS (The Sunday Telegraph)
Masked Crusader
Funstar
Mamaragan
RON DUFFICY (Sky Thoroughbred Central)
Doubtland
North Pacific
Master Of Wine
GARY CRISPE (Timeform – Racing And Sports)
Doubtland
Immortal Love
Kinane
PAUL JOICE (Sky Racing)
Doubtland
Invincible Fire
Fasika
MICHAEL SULLIVAN (Bluebet)
King’s Legacy
Peltzer
Masked Crusader
Originally published as Spring racing carnival: Experts pick their budding stars to watch