Sandown tips, latest odds, race-by-race analysis with Brad Waters, Nick Quinn

Impressive last-start winner Kemalpasa can strike again at Sandown, while Brad Waters is tipping La Mexicana to spice things up.

Herald-Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over the big 10-race card of Saturday’s Zipping Classic meeting at Sandown, while in-form punting guru Nick Quinn aims to keep his run going. Plus, Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner weighs in with his top picks.

GIL’S GOOD THINGS

BEST BET
KEMPALASA (Race 3, No.2 — $2.50)
Impressive last-start winner down the Flemington straight. Similar field here and should again be hardest to beat.

NEXT BEST
KENYA (Race 5, No.6 — $2.40)
Five-length last start winners have to be respected. Astute yard and white-hot jockey on board.

SOUND (Race 8, No.4 — $4.40)
Racing well without winning and this could be the day. Jamie Kah knows the horse now and small field should ensure the former international can finally snap his Australian drought.

VALUE BET
VIOLINIST (Race 2, No.6 — $17)
No luck last start and ripe to make amends. Small field, big track. Ticks a few boxes.

SAN HUBERTO (Race 7, No.1 — $21)
Flopped at Geelong but should appreciate extra distance and more positive ride. Stays all day and will like the open expanses of Sandown.

THE JOCKEY
JAMIE KAH
As strong a book of rides as anyone could wish for. Should come away with multiple winners, on paper, anyway. Kah’s best chances include: BRAZEN BOY (R1, No.4 $2.40), LA MEXICANA (R2, No.1 $2.70), SHAMINO (R4, No.7 $5.50), BUFFALO RIVER (R5, No.1
$3.10), CARIF (R7, No.4 $4.20) and SOUND (R8, No.4 $4.40)

Jamie Kah looks set for a big day at Sandown Hillside. Picture: Getty Images

BRAD’S SPECIALS

BEST BET

LA MEXICANA (Race 2, No. 1)

VALUE BET

PRINCESS JENNI (Race 8, No. 8)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 3, 7/1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9/1, 2, 3, 6/1

$100 flexi for 104 per cent

BIG6

1, 2, 3, 6/1/4, 5, 6, 7/6, 8/1, 2, 5, 10/2, 4, 5, 7, 16

$100 flexi for 15.62 per cent

LATEST MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS

LEG 1: RACE 7

The fields aren’t overly big in a couple of the Sandown quaddie legs, which gives us a reasonable chance of landing a decent dividend this week. Going to take a risk and play around the Melbourne Cup runners after such a gruelling race this year. Playing through the ‘middle order’ of the race with CARIF (4), SIN TO WIN (5), SWEET THOMAS (6), NAVAL WARFARE (7) going in along with REALM OF FLOWERS (9), who could be ready to fire over the 3200m.

1st leg: 4, 5, 6, 7, 9

Carif can’t be left out in the first leg of the quaddie at Sandown.

LEG 2: RACE 8

Only nine runners in the Zipping Classic this year and fairly confident of landing this leg with four picks. PRINCESS JENNI (8) is on top after her Bendigo Cup win but also have a fresh LORD BELVEDERE (6) in the mix as well. BRIMHAM ROCKS (3) did a good job in the Hotham Stakes and his form this time in is excellent. SOUND (4) is bursting to win a race this time in and has a chance at Sandown while FUTURE SCORE (5) is also a chance.

2nd leg: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8

LEG 3: RACE 9

The Eclipse Stakes is a tricky race but not an impossible leg to find. There’ll be plenty of pace in the race so expecting all runners to have their chance. HOMESMAN (1) is the class horse of the field so much go in, especially with a little more give in the ground at Sandown. SO SI BON (2) is always thereabouts in these races while GOLD FIELDS (5) is working up to a win after an excellent effort at Flemington. WEST WIND (10) is an on-pace runner that is racing in great form.

3rd leg: 1, 2, 5, 10

LEG 4: RACE 10

The Summoned Stakes is the toughest of the four quaddie legs this week but not an insurmountable challenge. MISSILE MANTRA (4) drops back from the Empire Rose Stakes to tackle this Group 3 contest. AKARI (2) worked hard at Flemington and will enjoy a softer run this time while MY PENDANT (6) wasn’t far away in a better effort last time out. Sydney mare TRICKY GAL (7) heads to Melbourne after a great run behind the classy mare Savatiano at Rosehill last time out. Putting in HASSTOBEGOOD (16) as a possible blowout after two solid runs in easier races and she’ll be fitter for those outings.

4th leg: 2, 4, 5, 7, 16

$100 flexi for 20 per cent

SKINNY QUADDIE

Interesting skinny quaddie this week but the smaller fields in the first two legs are a help. In the first leg, stripping it back to CARIF (4) and SIN TO WIN (5) as the two best last-start performances. The Zipping Classic is a bit trickier so going with three runners – SOUND (4), LORD BELVEDERE (6) and PRINCESS JENNI (8). Going for broke with HOMESMAN (1) one-out in the Eclipse Stakes to allow the last leg to be left untouched.

1st leg: 4, 5

2nd leg: 4, 6, 8

3rd leg: 1

4th leg: 2, 4, 5, 7, 16

$100 flexi for 333 per cent

Buffalo River will be hard to run down at Sandown. Picture: AAP

BRAD’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY

SANDOWN

RACE 2

$50 win LA MEXICANA (1) at $2.70

Usually, I like to have my best bet of the day later in the meeting but La Mexicana’s form is impeccable and she’s ready for the 1400m at Sandown. She goes forward and puts herself into the race and only has 1.5kg over the minimum in the set weights and penalties conditions. She’s going to be awfully hard to beat.

RACE 5

$50 win BUFFALO RIVER (1) at $3

Buffalo River had to go too hard in front in Group 1 company in the Cantala Stakes and ran well enough all things considered. His effort in the Toorak Handicap two runs back was terrific and he’ll be fitter again at his fourth run this time in. He’ll roll forward as usual and should keep running at Sandown.

RACE 8

$25 each-way PRINCESS JENNI (8) at $10/$2.80

Princess Jenni relished the 2400m trip when a fighting winner of the Bendigo Cup over the import Pondus, who ran well in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington last Saturday. She’ll be hard-fit for that run and will get every favour from barrier one around the spacious Sandown Hillside circuit.

RACE 9

$50 win HOMESMAN (1) at $3.90

With a bit of luck we’ll be well in front by this point, which would give us the option of putting the cue in the rack before the second last race of the day. However, Homesman looks a good bet in the Eclipse Stakes. He won well first-up before going a bit too hard in front at Flemington. There’s good speed engaged here, which will mean he won’t have to lead this time. He might just be too classy.

Group 1 winner Streets Of Avalon will drop in class for his latest assignment at Sandown.

THE OIL: SANDOWN HILLSIDE

Brad Waters’ race-by-race analysis for Zipping Classic Day.

RACE 1: 12.15PM LISTED STAKES (1000m)

A bit of midweek rain should have the Sandown Hillside track perfect for Saturday’s meeting and all runners should get their chance. The Merson Cooper Stakes is the classic question – back the proven formline or the first starters off their jumpouts? At the current odds, playing THE ART OF FLYING (1) each-way might be the way to go. He did a good job to run second on the debut and the winner of that race, Sneaky Five, showed the strength of the form by winning in Sydney last Saturday. Happy to back him each-way at the $10 available. BRAZEN BOY (4) won a trial in Adelaide by 14 lengths while FORBES (5) has had support off a Mornington jumpout win.

SUGGESTED BET: THE ART OF FLYING each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Forbes $3 – $2.80

RACE 2: 12.45PM TWILIGHT GLOW STAKES (1400m)

SUGGESTED BET: Tommy Gold to win.

Competitive race for three-year-old fillies with LA MEXICANA (1) the top pick after another gutsy performance to win narrowly at The Valley on Cox Plate day. She’s improving with every run and meets her rivals on favourable weight terms on Saturday. HIGHLY DISCREET (2) ran on hard behind the classy Written Beauty at Flemington and will relish the Sandown track. HINDAAM (4) returned to her best form at Bendigo last time out while CHEQUERBOARD (5) led and tried hard first-up but will be much fitter for that.

SUGGESTED BET: LA MEXICANA to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 3: 1.20PM GP 3 KEVIN HEFFERNAN STAKES (1300m)

Thought STREETS OF AVALON (1) could improve significantly in this race. Not much has gone right for him since an excellent effort in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes four runs back. He struck soft ground at Caulfield two runs ago and ran solidly over 1600m, which has been a stumbling block for him, in the Cantala. He’s back to 1300m and drops in class for this. He’s worth an each-way ticket. KEMALPASA (2) is flying down the straight and will run well again here. WILD VIXEN (7) was nabbed late at Flemington and will be thereabouts again. ORDER OF COMMAND (2) tried hard at Flemington and should be at peak fitness for three runs this time in.

SUGGESTED BET: STREETS OF AVALON each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

Bendigo Cup winner Princess Jenni will chase another win in the Group 2 Zipping Classic.

RACE 4: 1.55PM LISTED DOEVTON STAKES (1000m)

Good race under handicap conditions but going with the Phillip Stokes-trained SHAMINO (7) to notch his first win of the spring. He finished off well in a Group 2 race at Caulfield before just fading late over the 1200m at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day. Getting back to 1000m suits him. TAVISAN (4) has great speed and will be in this for a long way. The last little bit will be the query for him first-up while HUMMA HUMMA (3) went well at Caulfield and is a winner at her only Sandown run. PROPHET’S THUMB (6) is another of the closers that could enjoy a fast speed here.

SUGGESTED BET: SHAMINO to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

RACE 5: 2.30PM GP 3 SANDOWN STAKES (2500m)

Should be a bit of a speed battle on up front here but thinking BUFFALO RIVER (1) can improve with a shade more give in the ground than the firm surface he got at Flemington in the Cantala. His previous two runs at Caulfield were excellent and he can bounce back. ICONOCLASM (2) won a tactical affair at The Valley on Cox Plate eve and should get the perfect run again. KENYA (6) easily won a weaker race at Mornington first-up but will only be improved for this much harder contest. JUNIPAL (3) is fresh for this after a solid run in the Toorak Handicap and would appreciate softer ground.

SUGGESTED BET: BUFFALO RIVER to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Kenya $2.50 – $2.40

RACE 6: 3.05PM GP 2 SANDOWN GUINEAS (1600m)

If the Sandown Guineas was run under true handicap conditions, AYSAR (1) would need to give his rivals at least 22kg. But he meets them at level weights on Saturday so the Caulfield Guineas runner-up should win on weights and measures. If backing Aysar at the short quote isn’t your thing, then a place bet on FURIOSO (5) might be the way to go. He was fair on debut over 1400m but improved sharply to win over 1600m at Cranbourne last time out. He could continue to improve here. CAPTAIN CANUCK (2) led under favourable conditions at The Valley but will run well again while HORRIFYING (3) stuck on soundly in the Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington and is worth including.

SUGGESTED BET: FURIOSO to place.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

Aysar is a short-priced favourite for the Group 2 Sandown Guineas. Picture: Scott Barbour

RACE 7: 3.45PM LISTED SANDOWN CUP (3200m)

SIN TO WIN (5) broke a long winning drought with his emphatic win at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day but he’s a bit under the odds to repeat that effort on Saturday. I think he’ll win but I’d want better odds than the $4 quoted about him. CARIF (4) hasn’t won for more than a year but he was unlucky in the Hotham Stakes and the 3200m shouldn’t be a worry. SWEET THOMAS (6) comes out of the same Flemington race as Sin To Win and will be fitter for that outing. NAVAL WARFARE (7) pushed forward at Flemington and will be in this for a long way as well. Leaving out the Melbourne Cup runners ETAH JAMES (2) and MIAMI BOUND (3) after last Tuesday’s gruelling race.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta — 4, 5, 6, 7.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 8: 4.25PM GROUP 2 ZIPPING CLASSIC (2400m)

PRINCESS JENNI (8) outslugged the handy Irish galloper Pondus to win the Bendigo Cup and Pondus followed up that run with another solid performance at Flemington last Saturday. Princess Jenni was scratched from last Saturday’s Matriarch Stakes and this looks the perfect assignment for the Group 1 winner at this stage. LORD BELVEDERE (6) is fresh for this after an unplaced run at Flemington last month but is a talented stayer. SOUND (4) is racing well without winning but is an each-way chance again while BRIMHAM ROCKS (3) is working up to a win.

SUGGESTED BET: PRINCESS JENNI each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 9: 5.05PM GP 3 ECLIPSE STAKES (1800m)

HOMESMAN (1) might have found the Flemington track a bit too firm on Melbourne Cup day and might have gone a bit too hard in front second-up. He’s worth another chance in a race in which he’ll probably get a perfect trail behind the leaders. SO SI BON (2) is racing consistently and is again worth thought while GOLD FIELDS (5) is steadily improving this time in. The mare WEST WIND (10) is racing in brilliant form for the Maher / Eustace camp and will be hard to run down again.

SUGGESTED BET: HOMESMAN to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: West Wind $8 – $7.50

RACE 10: 5.40PM GP 3 SUMMONED STAKES (1500m)

Tricky race to finish at Sandown on Saturday but MISSILE MANTRA (4) is the way to go after her excellent effort to be beaten a little over a length in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes at Flemington. This is easier and she should get the speed she needs to run home over the top of them. MY PENDANT (5) fought on OK behind Rich Hips at Flemington while AKARI (2) did it tough racing wide at Flemington last time and should get a much softer run from the inside draw this time. HASSTOBEGOOD (16) steps up in class but there has been a lot to like about her two Australian runs.

SUGGESTED BET: MISSILE MANTRA to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

Missile Mantra can end the day on a high for punters in the Summoned Stakes. Picture: Scott Barbour

QUINNY’S MAILBAG

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn has cast his eyes over the feature races at Sandown Hillside and picked the best plays of the day for punters.

BEST BET

LA MEXICANA (Sandown Race 2, No. 1)

VALUE BET

SCARLET DREAM the place (Sandown Race 8, No. 9)

LAY OF THE WEEK

SWEET REPLY (Sandown Race 6, No. 8)

SANDOWN HILLSIDE

RACE 6

Aysar is one of the shortest priced fancies on the program and does look well placed to crack through for his third career victory. He snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when refusing to go past stablemate Crosshaven last start in the Carbine Club Stakes after enjoying a perfect ride by star jockey Damian Lane who returns from suspension. His run prior to that in the Caulfield Guineas was full of merit and he does look the winner.

There has been early support for Sweet Reply, who has been racing consistently but is struggling to register her elusive second victory, and appears too short at $3.70. Despite being eligible for maiden races, the Mark Kavanagh-trained Horrifying caught the eye behind the Hayes duo of Aysar and Crosshaven in the Carbine and again is worth including in the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: AYSAR the win.

Sin To Win will be chasing back-to-back wins on Saturday in the Sandown Cup. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

After a dominant win over 2800m last start at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, the Hayes-Dabernig trained Sin To Win heads the market for the Sandown Cup. Sin To Win has won his only prior attempt over 3200m, when saluting at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden, and she promises to be around the money.

One punter has parted with $5000 on 2019 VRC Oaks winner Miami Bound, who returned to form with a blistering win in the Moonee Valley Cup, and if she can get enough sting out of the ground, she comes into contention. Miami Bound lost no admirers last start when running 14th in the Melbourne Cup on non-preferred footing.

Carif struggles to win, as his record of just two wins from 27 starts would indicate, but he is racing well and should run a strong two miles. He looks a leading chance and don’t be surprised to see him still progress to be a quality staying type.

SUGGESTED BET: SIN TO WIN the win.

RACE 8

Forgiving punters are giving costly Avilius a chance at redemption in the Zipping Classic.

The James Cummings-trained galloper is winless in his last 12 starts and comes into the race on the back of finishing 22nd in the Melbourne Cup, beaten 20.95 lengths. At his best, he would clearly be the one to beat and early bets include $1500 at $4.20. Avilius is now a $3.80 favourite from Sound.

Sound has been a model of consistency since coming from Germany to join the stables of Mike Moroney. The one concern is that he is yet to win in 18 Australian starts. He comes into the race having finished runners-up in three of his past four starts and again deserves respect.

At longer odds, I anticipate Scarlet Dream from the all-conquering Hawkes stable will run a big race. She has been looking for firm ground and got that last start in the Group 2 Queen Elizbeth Stakes at Flemington where she ran a luckless and eye catching sixth behind True Self. She was back and on the rail in the run and never enjoyed clear galloping room, at $26 the win and $6 the place she is worth including in the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: SCARLET DREAM the place.