Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Racing editor Ray Thomas and form expert Ron Dufficy agree on a Godolphin horse winning the Missile Stakes at Rosehill Gardens, but which one? Check out their best bets and analysis.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on Missile Stakes day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 6, No.5: ANDERS
NEXT BEST
Race 7, No.5: FLIT
BEST VALUE
Race 2, No.6: NEW KING
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
RAY’S BEST
Race 8, No.10: TAILLEUR
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.13: SAVATIANO
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.
R1 (11.50am): SKY RACING ACTIVE HCP (1500m)
Duffficy: I want to go with Dancing Gidget. She seems to be going through her classes very well, won both her starts this preparation, both on wet tracks, and I think stepping up to 1500m suits here. The danger is Papal Warrior. He maps well and meets Dancing Gidget better at the weights. Montefilia is a promising staying filly controversially scratched last week but 1500m second-up looks a better option. Matowatakpe is genuine, he maps well and he should be around the mark again.
Thomas: I’ve gone the other way with Papal Warrior to get his revenge over Dancing Gidget. Papal Warrior does meet her 2.5kg better at the weights this time and he does get the run of the race here. Montefilia does look a very talented filly and she will be running on strongly. Dancing Gidget is flying but she is getting up in the weights now. Vienna Rain has struck form at the provincials and will be competitive here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dancing Gidget $4.40-$3.20 ($3.50-$3.10 after ded) BETS: $500 @ $3, Montefilia $10-$5.50 ($8-$6 after ded)
R2 (12.25pm): EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HCP (1500m)
Dufficy: There is a dark horse here in New King. He produced a very good run last start when he was slow away, settled back in the field and right through the line over an unsuitable distance. They have found James McDonald and although he still might be one run short, I’m happy to be on him, he looks talented. Royal Banquet is an improving horse going great guns. He bolted away from them last start on that heavy track giving the impression this trip will suit. Frosty Rocks is a very tough, on-pace type and although a little up in grade he will run well again. Spencer is bursting to win another race but it does look awkward for him on the map.
Thomas: Royal Banquet looks a real talent. He is storming through the grades and made a mess of them on a very heavy track at Warwick Farm last start. The one to beat here. I’m also wary of New King for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. He was finishing strongly late over 1300m at his Australian debut and is a horse to follow. Bjorn Baker’s duo, Spencer and Frosty Rocks are both racing in good form and will be competitive again.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Word For Word $8-$6.50 ($7-$6.50 after ded), Frosty Rocks $6-$4.80 ($5-$4.80 after ded), Royal Banquet $3.50-$2.30 ($3-$2.30 after ded), New King $14-$15-$9.50 ($11-$9.50 after ded) BETS: $1,000ew @ $14/$3.50, $1,000 @ $10 (same customer)
DAVO’S TIPS: BOOM COLT SET TO BLOOM
R3 (1pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)
Dufficy: I’m going with Group Think again. He was bolting on the turn but didn’t get into the clear until the last bit when he motored through the line. I’m happy to give him another chance. Total Recall is fresh blood here. He only won a maiden at Scone last start but he won with authority as a very short priced favourite. He should get the right run from the inside draw. Bajan Gold was good when third to Eiger (Group Think fourth) last start and is already proven at 2000m so he will appreciate the extra distance. So will Boom Gate who did enough last start and I still feel there is further improvement to come.
Thomas: Boom Gate caught my eye closing off nicely behind his stablemate Eiger over 1500m here last start and will appreciate getting out to a middle distance. Jason Collett is a patient, confident rider and from barrier two, he might be able to settle a touch closer and have Boom Gate ready to pounce from the turn. Total Recall looks an improving type coming off a dominant win. Group Think is awkwardly drawn and just needs a touch of luck early but he is ready to win. Holy Empress is from an in-form stable and is a good value chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Group Think $4.80-$4.40, Tavion Prince $21-$16, Shame Warned $21-$17, Total Recall $4.80-$4.20, Wichita Warrior (4E) $13-$11
R4 (1.35pm): DE BORTOLI WINES HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Outback Diva is a tough, little mare, she had far too much to do going back from an awkward draw last start. From the better barrier here, she can settle a lot closer and she looks the best wet-tracker in the race. On a drier surface I probably would have tipped Heart Of The Oak. She is a good, fresh performer, looks gifted with the lead here and after a nice, recent trial she looks the danger if she can get through the going. Wandabaa has had a freshen up and a nice barrier trial. She has been beautifully placed with six wins from 12 starts and will race well again. Estrado likes it wet, has no weight, and is very fit.
Thomas: Wandabaa is a very genuine mare racing in top form. She is untried on heavy tracks but has near faultless form on soft going and after the claim, she is well in at the weights given her excellent race record. I agree, Outback Diva does look very hard to beat here. She never runs a bad race and is better suited racing against her own sex. I’m wary of Heart Of The Oak as she has more upside than most of her rivals.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Heart Of The Oak $2.80-$2.40
R5 (2.15pm): CLUBSNSW HCP (2400m)
Dufficy: Bit of a guessing game. I want to make a case for Desert Path. He missed the start the other day, got well back and sort of lost interest then was only just warming up late. With barrier one and Nash Rawiller in the saddle, I think this could be a match made in heaven as Nash can stand over him, put him in the race and I feel he will go much better. Loveseat is on a quicker back-up here after having a month between runs when third here two weeks ago. California Longbow is going well and Rezealient’s two runs in Sydney have been very good.
Thomas: Loveseat has maintained her form through an extended campaign this winter and her last start effort when third in a strong form race behind Korcho indicates she is the one to beat today. She handles heavy tracks and is very fit. Stardome won by a margin at Doomben on a heavy track and Chris Waller has a knack of bringing his horses back from Brisbane with their confidence up and invariably they race well. Rezealient got through near the inside and finished just in front of Loveseat last start so he has to be respected. Birth Of Venus is at her peak now and she does enjoy these wet track conditions.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Guise $10-$7
R6 (2.55pm): SCHWEPPES ROSEBUD (1100m)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Anders. He’s had a shorter break than most going into this race, he came of age last preparation, I loved his recent barrier trial, he should find the lead, he’s a winner over this track and distance in the heavy – he gets enough ticks here. Kumasi is a nice colt who impressed in two runs last campaign. His recent trial was good but I’m not sure about him on a track rated worse than a slow 6. Ole Kirk has paid the price at the weights here for being placed at Group 1 level but he is going to be very strong late. Rulership is a query in the going but finds a nice spot behind Anders in the run and should be in the finish.
Thomas: I’m with Anders, too. He did find his groove late last season and his recent barrier trial win was outstanding. He is proven on heavy tracks and makes his own luck on speed. There is a lot to like about his chances. I see this race similarly to you, Ronnie, with Kumasi and Ole Kirk among the main chances. Kumasi showed a stack of potential in two starts as a two-year-old and Ole Kirk was very competitive at the top level during the autumn. I’ve got The Face in my numbers as he did look well above average winning his maiden.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ole Kirk $11-$12-$10 BETS: $500 win x $1,000 place @ $12/$3.20, $5,000ew @ $12/$3.20, Anders $4.60-$5-$3.80 BETS: $1,000 @ $3.90, $462 win x $1,400 place @ $3.90/$1.65, Shaik $26-$18-$21, The Face $15-$7
R7 (3.35pm): IRON JACK MISSILE STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Flit. This is similar to first-up in the autumn when the blinkers went on, she struck a soft track in the Light Finger Stakes and she was brilliant. I’m expecting her to hold her position here, she was placed in the Arrowfield Sprint on a heavy track at the end of last preparation and I’m expecting she will be very hard to beat. I loved Eduardo’s last-start win and he finds a good on-pace position, and he has superior wet track form with a run under his belt. Melody Belle is well placed given her rating and race performance. We know 1200m is short of her best trip but the wet track helps here. Savatiano is another who was brilliant when resuming last campaign but I don’t think she wants it worse than a soft 7.
Thomas: Savatiano on top for me. She is dynamic fresh and was placed at Group 1 level on a soft 6 when second in the Canterbury Stakes last autumn. Her recent trial win on a heavy track was impressive and the set weights and penalties of the Missile Stakes suits her. Eduardo was tough winning the July Sprint first-up and will only strip fitter. Melody Belle is a proven big-race performer and she excels on wet tracks. She will be charging home late. Flit is another who goes well fresh and she looked the part in her recent Hawkesbury trial.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Eduardo $6.50-$4.80, Savatiano $8.50-$7
R8 (4.15pm): ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: I want to go with Tailleur. It is short enough but I have to be forgiving for her when second against the bias last start. Her two previous wins were very impressive and she is top pick on her way through the grades. Minted did a good job running on strongly last start and back to 1200m suits. Best Stone should get a cosy on-pace run and third-up off a win appeals. McCormack is the best longshot. He has won three times fresh and is capable on soft tracks.
Thomas: Tailleur was disadvantaged by the track bias last start and although she lost her unbeaten record, she didn’t lose any admirers as she kept working to the line when second behind Killin. She had won her two previous starts brilliantly and gets in on the limit weight here. I also have Minted and Best Stone running competitive races. They are fit, in-form and handle these track conditions. Golly I’m Lucky is flying at the provincials and deserves his chance at this level.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Exceltic $26-$19, Tailleur $2.30-$2.10
R9 (4.55pm): TAB HCP (1200m)
Dufficy: Cristal Breeze reads like he might have had a setback but I’m convinced he is much better than a benchmark 78 horse and if there is any confidence about him on track after a five week freshen and trial then I want to be on him. Valdostana is an improver second-up at home and should go well. Fender – beware of the unbeaten horse and he has trialled brilliantly recently. Partners will look the winner for a long way from in front.
Thomas: Valdostana came with a wide run around the turn and might have got to the front too soon when run down right on the line at Warwick Farm when resuming. She has good second-up from and only has to handle these track conditions to be in the finish. Fender won his only three starts in his debut race campaign and resumes here after romping home in a Tamworth trial. Cristal Breeze has to be included in the top chances despite that break between runs. Discharged is a tough, on-pacer but is a query on heavy tracks.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lord Zoulander $14-$16-$11 ($13-$11 after ded), Partners $7.50-$8-$6.50 ($7-$6.50 after ded) BETS: $300 @ $8, $400 place @ $2.40, $500 @ $7
SHAYNE O’CASS’S INSIDE MAIL
ROSEHILL GARDENS
PRICE CHECK
Total Recall (race three) is trained by Paul Messara who had this gelding’s dam, Hussta La Vista. She by the way, was an absolute muddie winning three of four on the slop. You would imagine that from barrier 3, The Gun (aka Brenton Avdulla) parks him in the box seat and his fitness., stamina and sprint can see him home. Total Recall was $1.30 last start when he bolted in at home at Scone in the maiden, he will go around at about $4, which is very reasonable given all the boxes that are ticked.
TRIAL WATCHERS
Imaging (race seven) is capable of denting some giant reputations in the Missile Stakes notably the 10-time Group 1 winner Melody Belle and Chris Waller-trained stablemate Kolding to name just two. It’s not often that a horse who finished last and then second-last in two trials can claim to have been eye-catching but Imaging can. Fair dinkum, he was a Great Dane pulling on lead in both of them; the last one was in the deep heat won by the aforementioned Melody Belle. The other thing about Imaging that brings him into contention today is that he loves the wet, absolutely adores it.
Kumasi (race six) is arguably the best looking horse in the Rosebud. Stunning when standing still and even more striking when he gallops. He has the pedigree to back up his looks too being by the great Snitzel and with the celebrated Denise’s Joy as his fourth dam. Kumasi was runner-up in the Pago Pago inside three weeks of winning his maiden on debut at Gosford - no mean feat. He trialled as well as anything and better than most in what was essentially a jump-out over 900m here five days ago.
SECTIONAL STARS
Dancing Gidget (race one) races in the colours of past Missile Stakes winner Guineas, Commands and Lonhro. They are the cerise of course. Dancing Gidget was hardly a slouch before this current campaign (heck, she beat Toffee Tongue in March) but she’s certainly in career best shape going back to back — one on soft, the other on a Heavy 8. The cleverly named daughter of Little Surfer Girl let rip with a very impressive 34.18s when she won here on July 25 with an 11.64s final 200m. Up to 1500m today, she has the option to race handier from the draw if they want it.
Rezealient (race five) is a Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained gelding who has only won two of 20 but he has been runner-up six times and most importantly, this is him in career best shape at present thanks in part to Louise Day who has ridden him at his last two. Even as the runner-up last start (to Korcho), Rezealiant clocked the fastest last 600m on the race - 33.71s. Not bad for a mile and a half race on the Soft 7. Pedigree buffs take note; this horse’s fourth dam is Forego; the mother of the great, great Tontonon.
SATURDAY EXTRA
SHAYNE O’S CASS’ TOP PICKS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
AWAKINO (Race 4, No.9)
Showed talent in his trials and wasn’t disgraced on debut when a beaten favourite at Canberra over 1200m. Nice big track here and 1400m is bang on target for him.
NEXT BEST
REIGNITE (Race 5, No.9)
Ran fourth to Doubtland on debut, disappointed at Kembla after that; spelled, gelded, back and is trialling like the good horse we know he can become. Drawn to win.
VALUE
INDIGNANT (Race 3, No.4)
Was $61 on debut in a Canberra maiden in February and was never a factor but with her last trial at Warwick Farm was most encouraging from this close relative of Starspangledbanner.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
ADRIAN LAYT has a great book of five rides at Newcastle, his best look to be stablemates Reignite and Kung Fu Mushu as well as Imacrumpet.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 9
Race 6: 9,14
Race 7: 7,12
Race 8: 14,15
COFFS HARBOUR
BEST BET
THORAPEST (Race 1, No.11)
His dam is a sister to the great Rubiton but this 7yo is still looking for his first win after 23 starts. To his credit, he is invariably thereabouts. This time perhaps.
NEXT TIME
SWATCH (Race 2, No.2)
Matthew Dunn mare in the Typhoon Tracy colours who has trialled well but drawn poorly on paper but has a great jockey to help her out.
VALUE
ZIOPTIMUS (Race 5, No.3)
Huge run last start when he just missed out on the prize at Moree. Has won on soft, maybe don’t want it much worse than that however.
Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis