Rosehill tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances at Rosehill on Saturday to help you find some winners.

Ron Dufficy says Winter Challenge favourite Cross Talk is a horse on the up. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

The Saturday Telegraph racing writer Matt Jones and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race Rosehill program on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 5 No.7: SHADES OF ROSE

BEST VALUE

Race 9 No.3: ENCHANTED HEART

RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200m)

Matt Jones: So Country just ticks all the boxes here while a couple of his rivals have drawn poor. He’s a super consistent type who loves wet ground and Brenton Avdulla should be giving him the charmed run from barrier six as others get poor luck in what should be a sizeable field. Blow Dart should finally get some luck here from a cushy gate after two forgive runs. The blinkers come off and he shouldn’t be treated harshly for his last start fifth when getting trapped wide in the run. I think he can race well above his $17 price. I probably would’ve had Iconic Dame on top with just 53kg on her back had she not drawn barrier 19 which is a tough one from the 1200m Rosehill start. If she somehow overcomes that she’s got the class to win. Sir Ravanelli threw it away here a fortnight go when running off the track.

Ron Dufficy: I just thought Rebel Dreamer had too much to do last time from a long way back so with more pressure up front here I’m happy to give him another chance. He does seem to have a bit of upside. I think the danger here is one at odds in Horowitz. He never got clear first-up and he had plenty to offer and he does look like a good long shot to my eye. Iconic Dame has work to do getting across from that outside draw but she’s a talented filly who was dominant last time. Sir Ravanelli has trialled well since throwing away certain victory last start.

RACE 2: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1100m)

MJ: Most of the ones I want to back here are drawn double-figure gates which is normally a no-no from the Rosehill 1100m start. But I will go with Voldemort here with James McDonald on. He went down narrowly in the Kindergarten Stakes at his second start and on his latest barrier trial he’s come back very well. With some luck he’s the one I want to be on. Waverider Buoy ploughed through the heavy ground to win first-up at the midweeks and beat a horse that came out and won at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. And he’s got a good gate. Opal Ridge couldn’t have done more in winning two starts in lesser grade and has the inside gate.

RD: Fire And Ice went up ridiculous odds and although he beat nothing at Wyong he did it in style and showed raw talent last preparation. Hell I Am had a heavy track win first-up and can go on but needs luck. Salaasel trialled well in Sydney prior to being far from disgraced down the straight at Flemington. Voldemort looks a strong type who did some nice things in a few runs last preparation.

RACE 3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1300m)

MJ: They’ve figured out who to ride Bartoselli now and he ticked a wet track box last start which gives me more confidence about him. Contributingfactor needs luck from the awkward draw but has to find this one easier and he runs well off freshen ups. He might run on Sunday but if McCormack takes his place in this field I’ll have something on him each-way. He’s been good to me over the years and is underestimated. Pandora Blue wasn’t far off them in the Ramornie last time and is another flying under the radar. She’s run good race this time in.

RD: I’m with Contributingfactor who comes out of a very strong form race and he should run well in this company with blinkers on. Bartoselli was much better second-up and his only win was with Nash Rawiller on board so I think he reacts with that horse. Air To Air is a frustrating mare who caught the eye again first-up for the new connections so I’m including her. Saquon drops in class and he loves it wet and I think this distance suits him better.

RACE 4: ATC THANK YOU OWNERS HANDICAP (1800m)

MJ: To me, this was the hardest to find a winner so I’ll back the $34 outsider Sprout Wings. She probably needs a run but she’s beaten Yggdrasil two runs back and gets a 4kg weight advantage from that day. Lovely Esteem looks set to peak now and James McDonald is on to give his mount an easy run in transit. Yggdrasil is super consistent and all she needs to do is hold her form and she’s in the finish on a favourable track. Narrated should be in this for a long way.

RD: It’s very even. I just went with the speed map here and it points to Narrated who loves to dictate and she gets her chance to do that again here and she does get complete control. Elusive Jewel is very honest and is busting to win another race. Lovely Esteem is an imported mare who was much better second-up, indicating the extra distance will suit here. It might not be ideal for Yggdrasil back in distance but she’s still racing well enough to be finishing off strongly.

Shades Of Rose (left) was run down by The Big Easy last start. Picture: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

RACE 5: NSWROA TROPHY (1100m)

MJ: With the way this sets up, Shades Of Rose looks the one to beat if she behaves in the run. She’s going to peak now after just getting pipped last time. I’ve been a big fan of Glacier Queen this time in and she should be storming home from off the speed under Tommy Berry who can find the best part of the track. Petulant is building towards a win but needs a Pike special from the gate while Curtis Island wants the ground to stay as wet as possible to be a chance.

RD: This looks the bet of the day, Shades Of Rose. She just has to execute right and she will win but she can do a few things wrong like missing the start and overracing and she bucked one day. Hopefully that’s all out of the system now. Twilight Affair is lightly raced is trialling well and gets into this very light so there’s lots of positives there. French Marine has been freshened back in distance with a trial and likes it wet so he’s well placed in a race like this. Curtis Island is a tough midweek performer who loves it wet.

RACE 6: ATC THANK YOU STABLE STAFF HANDICAP (1300m)

MJ: I loved Kalino’s last start win and with James McDonald on from a cushy gate he’s getting the best possible hope of going back-to-back off a little break. I think Centro Storico is overs third-up with the booking of Nash Rawiller a further boost and she’s run less than two lengths off Mazu. I probably would’ve backed Kanazawa had he drew better but he might not get any favours in the run.

RD: I’m thinking Kanazawa is the go to horse here. He’s lightly raced and has talent and gets a claim fourth-up off a win so they’re all positives. Kalino found his form in winning well last start but is back from a mile here which is some concern with last week’s meeting being called off. Deep Romance was quite dominant in winning at this track and distance last start. Centro Storico is fitter for a few runs back and maps nicely from a good draw. Pizarro is another who need luck but has the services of Bowman to help and he’s the forgotten horse I think.

RACE 7: SPECIAL ACHIEVEMENT SHELBY SIXTYSIX HANDICAP (1800m)

MJ: I’ve got to go with Wicklow from the draw and I think he’s also well placed here without a stack of threats. He’s up to 1800m now and gets a breather most of the way. Dr Evil is over if the track stays in the heavy range while Kirkeby was almost a winner last start and probably got beat by and underrated one.

RD: I think Wicklow appears like he wants this distance now and this race is well within his range. It looks and even race but he looks the progressive horse. Aramis is a lightly-raced improver with no weight on his back. Fiordland is right at his peak now and the step up in distance suits him as well and Kirkeby would’ve won in two more strides last start and the McDonald booking is significant. Philipsburg is a tease and will run on yet again.

Wicklow looks well suited stepping up to 1800m. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

RACE 8: ATC FOUNDATION WINTER CHALLENGE (1500m)

MJ: Maybe the extra week and extra gallop helps Gold Trip here after this race was postponed from last Saturday. He’s run in the Arc in France and none of his rivals would even dream of getting to that race. I liked the last bit of his 900m barrier trial too. How can you knock Jojo Was A Man? He’s come of age this time in and tends to get the job done at any track. Durston trialled up without cracking a sweat recently and is a big market watch while Cross Talk is set to start favourite but is up in grade and I’m worried about him late unless he dictates for much of the run which makes him hard to pull back.

RD: I loved the dominance of Cross Talk in winning two of his past three. I know he’s up in class but he looks like a very smart horse in the making. He should get control and I think he’s very hard to run down. Obviously Jojo Was A Man sets up well being very fit. Durston is a real dark horse. He was scratched from the wet last week so I don’t know what they’re going to do with him but he commands respect. Charleise is one for one at the track and distance and I think she’s in this race at the right time at odds.

RACE 9: BILL PICKEN OAM HANDICAP (1100m)

MJ: Siege is a real winner and even in defeat last time I was impressed with how she fought all the way and was strong through the line and I like her with 52kg on her back. Kris Lees is pleased with how well Enchanted Heart has freshened up after being outclassed in a Group 1 five weeks ago and she will loves getting her toe back into the ground. I think Easy Single is a false favourite but has to go in the numbers as does Catesby who is way over after a ripper run in the Ramornie. The drying track is the key.

RD: I’m sticking with Enchanted Heart. She’s the best wet tracker and I’m expecting her to be very strong late after a little freshen up and she’s hard to hold out. I wish it was a little bit drier for Catesby and we might get that by race nine on Saturday. His last two runs for this new stable have been great and he represents very good odds. Siege had a good record with upside and has no weight, Easy Single was very well fancied last week before the meeting was called off. Just the last 50m is my concern.

RACE 10: ATC THANK YOU TRAINERS HANDICAP (1300m)

MJ: Tawfiq Lass is so consistent and loves wet ground so why not put some faith in her to make it three-straight wins in a tough looking race on paper. I like Richard Laming’s plan to target a Sydney race here with Nerone but he needs the track to stay in the heavy range to win I think. Titanium Power was entitled to drop out of it last start when taken on in the run but stuck on well from second behind Cross Talk and if he gets his own way in front this time he’s going to give a great sight. Sur La Mer is too consistent to forget about.

RD: They left the hardest until last. I will go with the consistency of Sur La Mer in such a tough race. I just lean his way. I was nearly going to tip Mamaragan. He’s a disappointing horse in general but it’s the right type of race for him so I’m not leaving him out. I respect Yukon first-up with his nice fresh form and I thought Marchioness was good first-up, the ex-Kiwi and the extra distance should suit her and she’s a knockout chance at odds as well.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis