Randwick tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances at Randwick on Saturday to help you find some winners.

Jojo Was A Man is the favourite for the feature Winter Challenge at Randwick. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

The Saturday Telegraph racing writer Matt Jones and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race Royal Randwick program on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 4 No.3: ENCHANTED HEART

BEST VALUE

Race 3 No.5: CONTRIBUTINGFACTOR

RACE 1: ELITE SAND & SOIL HANDICAP (1200m)

Matt Jones: I’ll go with True Crime who handled the wet well in running second here last start. That runner-up finish was behind Midnight In Tokyo which I think is good form and they gapped the third-place horse which is also a promising type. Tintookie sailed through the heavy ground on debut to win in top fashion at Goulburn which is what needed to happen if she was going to come to this race and the stable likes her. We find out what’s under the bonnet of Spiritchaser on debut but she couldn’t have looked more comfortable in a barrier trial. Stonecoat is only going to go better here and will have to off a bush win.

Ron Dufficy: I’m leaning towards Stonecoat. I know he only won a country maiden but he did it well and I can see him getting a soft lead here and I he’s got a bit of strength in his pedigree being by Pierro and I think the 1200m suits him best. True Crime hasn’t done much wrong in two starts to date but there’s a tough more depth and he’s a little question mark at 1200m. Tintookie is raw but pretty talented looking at her first-up win at Goulburn. Spiritchaser has shown some talent at the trials and gets in very light after the claim.

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1600m)

MJ: A typically tough Highway to dissect. Running Bear does like wet ground and was beaten by a rising horse two weeks ago and she’s super fit and in fine form. She is suspect at a mile but she gets a cushy run from the draw with a claim so now’s the time to run the trip. Non-winner Lord Desanimaux stormed home first-up off no barrier trial and he’s an obvious improver here as is Twig who will get a run a an emergency.

RD: Zadig has been freshened up with a barrier trial since winning a Highway in good style last time and goes forward and maps well. There’s been four winners out of the last race he won so I’m happy to be with him with the claim. I thin Running Bear could well be the danger. He’s been off for a while but he continues to race well. It’s a little query that he had to go to a mile now. What do you say about Lord Desanimaux? He’s a consistent Highway performer who is never far away but doesn’t win often. He gets his blinkers back on. I thought there was good value in Dubai Centre who seems a much better horse this preparation with two strong wins.

RACE 3: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1600m)

MJ: Most of the horses in the market here ran against each other in a Midway at this track two weeks ago. Those horses are Dr Evil, Buba, Cruel Summer and Monfelicity. Out of them I think Buba got the least favours in the run and was a sitting duck for Dr Evil and Monfelicity to come over the top of her after she worked from a wide gate and Cruel Summer had a trail on her leading into the straight. Buba gets in better at the weights now and has a much better draw to get an easier run.

RD: I think Contributingfactor might be the one. It’s been freshened since competing in a much stronger race than this and his previous win on a wet track was good and he gets blinkers and I’ll sway his way at the odds. Elusive Jewel is the big danger. She’s busting to win another race and she gets her chance to win back to a mile with a claim. Montfelicity surprised winning first-up but you can only see her improving off that. Dr Evil is a very good wet tracker and made a long, sustained run going down narrowly last time and he’s pretty honest.

Enchanted Heart in race 4 is Duff’s best bet at Randwick. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

RACE 4: ASX REFINITIV CHARITY JULY SPRINT (1100m)

MJ: They wanted to avoid a Heavy 10 first-up with Rocketing By which won’t happen but he does fly fresh and handles wet ground being by So You Think. He’s been going a little keen in his trials so he’s ready to go. Kris Lees has a feeling Enchanted Heart is ready to get back into winning form after finding the Tatt’s Tiara a bit too much. She’s also going to love being back on a wet track and is well placed in this grade. Easy Single is on a quicker back up now which hasn’t occurred before so it’s interesting to see how it works but he’s in form.

RD: I’m going with the best wet tracker in Enchanted Heart. She’s a month back to 1100m and I don’t think that will pose her too many problems here and I think she’ll be hard to hold out if right. I think the value runner is Catesby. His two runs for his new stable have been outstanding. He was good in the Ramornie and that’s good form for this race. To think he’s $34, that’s double the price I think he should be. Easy Single should’ve finished closer at this track and distance last time. He’s up in class but does drop 6kg. Rocketing By is a big query but his three trials should have him ready to go and he did win at his only run at this track and distance.

RACE 5: QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (2400m)

MJ: The Milkybar Kid is going along great but I just don’t like backing front runners over 2400m (unless they’re Might And Power). I loved the way Yggdrasil strode through the line to win over the same trip on a Heavy 10 and the three weeks between runs is ideal. Our Candidate had a kill last time so look for an improved horse. Philipsburg keeps teasing the punters by running on very well in just about all his runs this time in but he hasn’t won in a while and they were talking of spelling him two runs back so that’s a query but he much be doing well at home.

RD: He’s short enough, The Milkybar Kid but this ex-Kiwi has been dominant winning his past three. I know it was only a two-horse race last time but you can only win. I just think he might have more upside than the rest. I think Marakopa is the danger. Last time he was at this track and distance on the Heavy 9 he won by more than five lengths so if he can get anywhere that form he’s a huge threat. Yggdrasil got the job done well winning at 2400m last time. She’s 1kg worse off to Oceanic Flash but she’s a good grinding, staying mare. Oceanic Flash was OK in that same race with a gap to third and he should run well.

RACE 6: TPG HANDICAP (1500m)

MJ: Kalino was most impressive winning last start against a horse that came out and won at the midweeks on Wednesday. He’s four weeks between runs and back 100m in trip and will handle a wet track and has Jojo Was A Man form around him from two starts back. Deep Romance flew through the wet ground last start over 1300m and the 1500m looks good now. Per Inaway will enjoy getting back onto a wet track fourth-up while Brad Widdup is confident The Himalayas will handle a wet track after two Good 4 wins at home since being gelded.

RD: Kalino’s found his form now, winning third-up and he should hold that form now. I know he was disappointing on a heavy first-up but he’s a fitter horse now and he did win his maiden on a heavy track so I want to be forgiving there. Per Inaway drops in class with the claim and that seems suitable. She just needs to tick off the 1500m box. Deep Romance produced a strong finish to win last time and loves it wet and she’s another that just has to run that 1500m but gives the impression she will. Arnaqueur has been a disappointment after looking the goods early on but his trial was good and he could be a blow out chance.

Kalino can maintain his winning form. Picture: Mark Evans/Getty Images

RACE 7: ATC THANK YOU STABLE STAFF HANDICAP (1300m)

MJ: It’s almost impossible to go past Waihaha Falls here as an odds-on pop. He’s had both his races this time in won by the 300m which is why he’s been winning soft on the post and by a margin. It’s hard to imagine him going backwards third-up. Titanium Power will give them something to catch out in front. He’s in fine form and his second placing last start was a very good run given the amount of work he had to do from the wide gate. He was entitled to drop out of it but didn’t. Niffler can bounce back and Poetic Charmer is always thereabouts.

RD: Waihaha Falls has returned looking like a likely Group performer with two very soft wins. He’s up in weight today but it’s hard to go against him. Titanium Power’s greatest asset here is his style because he’s the only leader and if they forget about him, Waihaha Falls might have a bit of work to do to run him down. Niffler had excuses with vet issues last time and the previous form was very genuine. Poetic Charmer is a tough old toiler who is rarely far away.

RACE 8: ATC FOUNDATION WINTER CHALLENGE (1500m)

MJ: Gold Trip ran fourth in an Arc in France and none of these would dream of getting anywhere near that class of race. His 900m barrier trial was everything you wanted to see. I know he hasn’t raced in a while but his last run was a Group 1 race in Europe when third. I’ll take a chance on him. Jojo Was A Man is flying and fit although I’d be more confident if it wasn’t a Heavy 10 because he’s better on top of the ground. Charleise is nice enough at the $10 price.

RD: This is a bit of a race. Jojo Was A Man is going really well and maps well from the good draw and should be in the finish. Charleise is a real knockout who has talent and a light weight on a wet track is ideal for her now. Gold Trip is a class horse resuming who would be right in this if in order. Oscar Zulu is very fit and threatening to win another race.

RACE 9: CITY TATTERSALLS GROUP HANDICAP (1200m)

MJ: Jal Lei just had too much to do last start be really rattled home from the rear. She must be peaking now third-up with a significant jockey change and barrier to allow her to be closer and not have to do as much on straightening. Monte Ditto is up in grade but is rock-hard fit which will count on this track. Conscript peaks now and should be right in the finish. Mamaragan looks to be over the thumps which has plagues him for a long while now. They’re persisting with him and he’s looked the winner at stages in races this preparation.

RD: It’s Jal Lei for me. I thought there was enough improvement second-up with James McDonald on from an inside draw. Hopefully she’s racing a little close than she has been and she’s bred to really like it wet, being by Sebring. Conscript is two from two on the heavy and is peaking now and is the obvious favourite. Nerone has won two of his past three in Victoria on heavy tracks and this stable can produce one in order. Mamaragan was just ridden too close last time. He’s a frustrating horse but he’s not badly placed in a Benchmark 78.

Race 10: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1200m)

MJ: Sunrise Ruby caught the eye first-up when making up plenty of ground late and she’s proven second-up and this looks like a perfect race for her. I think Lady Banff is good value off the barrier trial and gets a good run in transit to attack late. Lady Brook was just too tough for them second-up here a fortnight ago. Hard to see her not going as good if not better. Irish Angel is one who could find a length and be a force.

RD: There’s a lot of them coming out of the same race here and the one I’ve isolated out of that race is Sunrise Ruby. She was very strong late first-up and 1200m suits her better and she loves it wet and she should be hard enough to beat. I think a good horse at double-figure odds here is Brazen Song. She’s up in a class but I liked her return off a freshen up and different form appeals a bit along with Lady Banff who trialled great. I know she hasn’t won in a long time but I’m interested in her at odds. Lady Brook is a real professional and what you see is what you get. She makes her own luck. She’s a typical Joe Pride horse who won’t run badly.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis