Randwick tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy discuss the top chances at Randwick for Missile Stakes day to help you find some winners.
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The Saturday Telegraph racing writer Matt Jones and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race Randwick program, which includes the Group 2 Missile Stakes, on Saturday.
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R1: TAB HIGHWAY PLATE (1800m)
MATT JONES: I’ve gone with the favourite Life Well Lived here. I loved the last-start win which was done with a bit in hand in a Class 2 event at Dubbo over 1615m and he looks primed for 1800m now with Bowman on. Mirror Queen shoots for three-straight and I’m putting her in front of Relucent based on the barriers. Relucent doesn’t want any more rain and is starting to settle better now due to a gear change and the trip won’t be an issue so expect to see him charging late. It’s hard to leave Lord Desanimaux out of the numbers.
RON DUFFICY: I think Life Well Lived is a deserved favourite and he’s won three of his past four when stepping up in distance. He’s got the in-form Bowman aboard and he looks like a strong type. Zadig is off a 55-day break but there’s been four winner out of that last race he won and he’s had a tick over trial since and he’s got a nice racing style and will be around the mark. The track conditions are vital for Relucent. He’s ready to win in this class but the drier the better. Lord Desanimaux was good last week and rarely runs poorly.
R2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800m)
MJ: I’m going with Highly Desired because this horse won’t find an easier Midway to win. He’s got the 3kg claimer on and is in super form for Claire Lever and should just have too much class for this lot. Bazooka is a threat due to previous form and he wasn’t too bad last start in a much better race than this and gets McDonald on from a cushy gate. Adios Steve is going along great and is nice and fit for 1800m while I can never leave my old mate McCormack out of the numbers but he’s just a little off at the moment.
RD: This is a race lacks depth. I’m going with the toughness of Highly Desired and his consistency and I think the claim helps him. He’s just got to finish off the last 100m and he’ll be hard to beat. Brown Thomas has put in a nice enough trial since the last run and he maps well so I think he’s got a chance in a race like this. Bazooka comes out of the strongest lead up race last week and although well beaten that form might be good enough here. Adios Steve will be better for the experience at this distance now and is racing well.
R3: SYDNEY HANDICAP (2400m)
MJ: I’m thinking Yggdrasil can bounce back here with enough juice in the track. Her win two starts back was exceptional and she just wasn’t quite at her best last start off a four-week break. She’s on the quick back-up now which is ideal. Our Candidate should have renewed confidence off that kill he was given at Grafton and the three weeks between runs suits this lightly-framed European stayer. I think Forest Diamond might start overs because she’s a Victorian. Her form down south as been exceptional and staying 2400m isn’t an issue. Cadre Du Noir might be better now with more miles under the legs.
RD: I’m very keen on Cadre Du Noir. He’s third-up at his right distance and he’s caught the eye in a recent trial since that last run and it is a perfect race for him up here. Forest Diamond has different form from Victoria and she’s lightly raced so there’s upside from a respected stable. Our Candidate got his confidence up by winning last start and the claim helps him and he likes the track and distance. Marakopa stays better than most here and dropping 4kg helps.
R4: JOCKEY CELEBRATION HANDICAP (1400m)
MJ: Conqueror won on debut in February and beat a subsequent Group 1 winner that day before going for a spell. His barrier trials suggest he could be one of the horse’s on everyone’s lips after this meeting. Cotton Fingers is very fit now and hasn’t done much wrong this time in and just got run down by the promising Pizarro last weekend. Coodarady was also a debutant winner but has been off the scene for a year but has the Waller/McDonald combination behind him. Cacofonix is an improver off a pass mark at his Australian debut.
RD: Conqueror looked a real horse for the future last preparation when winning on his debut. His two trials were great and although he starts off at 1400m I think he’ll be hard to beat. Gracilistyla has sprinted well fresh in the past and the blinkers are on over 1400m first-up so there looks to be confidence there. Coodarady has had a year off and only one trial but it was a good one so he’s a yard and market watch. Cacofonix made up good ground there late first-up in Australia and this is more like her distance.
R5: BISLEY WORKWEAR HANDICAP (1300m)
MJ: I think Grace And Harmony can cause a minor upset here as a $13 chance. She’s won fresh in the past and although this is short of her best she has the class factor on her side. She flew home to run less than two lengths off Ellsberg first-up last time in and is a genuine Stakes performer. Pizarro is up in grade but won soft on the line last weekend which is a good sign and backing him up was always the plan at his home track. He’s never run worse than second. Niffler is at a more ideal trip now after not handling going up in distance. Yukon is one to keep in mind.
RD: It’s a tricky race but an interesting one. I’ve marked seven horses here. I’ve landed on Daralina Belle. She doesn’t want it too wet but she sets up well after winning last start in Victoria and could easily go on with it. Niffler wasn’t herself last start but her previous form was faultless and she has had a nice recent trial. Pizarro has been set for this and just might have that fitness edge needed. Grace And Harmony could be very dangerous fresh with a tick off in the yard.
R6: NSW JOCKEYS REUNION HANDICAP (1000m)
MJ: We might be seeing a different Maotai from now on after being gelded. I loved the sit he took in his barrier trial under Bowman who is on here. He might not be the mad leader anymore and it should make him a better horse. Smirnova has a good record due to her talent and a top fresh run is expected off the barrier trial. Stoical didn’t get many favours last time but hit the line well and is on a quicker back up now. I want to give stablemate Miss Dior another chance.
RD: Maotai, if it’s not too wet, is my top pick. I like the way he settled for Bowman in that recent trial. I know he’s got a lot of barrier issues but he’s well placed here. I think Leo is his danger. He’s tuned up with three trials and four of his five wins have been at this track and distance and he’s usually lethal fresh. Smirnova is very talented but has been a work in progress and Van Giz rarely runs poorly and should be around the mark late.
R7: PREMIER’S CUP PRELUDE (1800m)
MJ: Bjorn Baker has had plenty of success winning by bringing horses back in trip and Arapaho might be able to do this after winning the Grafton Cup three weeks ago. I thought Skyman’s win last start was sensational and a barrier trial off a freshen up should have him ready to go. It’s hard to knock Lord Ardmore’s consistency and toughness and he gets to race where he wants from the gate. Stablemate Francesco Guardi chased him last start and this horse hasn’t done much wrong this time in and will present a formidable challenge.
RD: I like Lord Ardmore. He’s an adaptive type who has returned well and he maps nicely from the draw and he’s hard enough to beat. Alcyone got all the breaks winning first-up but he was very dominant so he’s likeable. Francesco Guardi was good behind Lord Ardmore last start and likes this track as does La Chevalee who will appreciate a huge drop in weight here although up in class.
R8: MISSILE STAKES (1200m)
MJ: I’m finding it hard to spilt Forbidden Love and Count De Rupee. They both looked the part in a barrier trial and it could be argued Count De Rupee went a touch better and has a super fresh record. I can’t get Forbidden Love’s autumn form out of my head though and I’ll out her on top but I think they run first and second. There’s huge stable confidence about Belluci Babe while Gem Song is the one at double figure odds who could shock them.
RD: It’s not cut and dry and it’s weather related. I like Embracer and hopefully he gets a drying track later in the day and he’ll give them plenty to catch. I liked Count De Rupee’s trial and he’s another one where the drier the better for him. Forbidden Love did an amazing job last preparation and she’s sure to be competitive again and she wants it wet. It’s short of Hilal’s best distance but he appears to have returned well.
R9: NSW JOCKEYS ASSOCIATION HANDICAP (1600m)
MJ: It’s hard to win on your Australian debut but Bold Mac did it three weeks ago and beat Blesk which I think is good form and Bowman goes on and should be giving him an ideal run in transit. Fiordland just had to change course in the straight last time but ran on nicely behind Alcyone and we should be seeing a peak run now and the same can be said about First Light. Casino Kid goes from 1100m to 1600m which looks tough on paper but is exactly the type of trip he wants and could be the upset horse.
RD: I thought Contributingfactor was terrific last week with blinkers on. He only has to reproduce that performance to be hard to beat. The one I’m most wary of is Il Affare the ex-Kiwi who comes out of a proven form race and still has upside. Silent Agenda is up to a mile and will give a bit of cheek here at really good odds and Fiordland is going well and is ready to peak.
R10: VERTO HANDICAP (1200m)
MJ: Rupertaar ran 10th of 13 last start but forget that. She was caught behind a wall of horses the whole straight and was left jogging in behind them so she’s going to start overs in an open race. She pretty much had a barrier trial last time. Jal Lei has drawn out but that won’t bother her because she gets back and she’s third-up now and on a better track to make her run from the rear. Lady Brook is super tough and it’s just the draw that’s a concern.
RD: I didn’t know what to do here so I went looking for something at odds and I’ve landed on Rupertaar. It was half a hidden run last week and had a lot to offer but she had nowhere to go so she appears well over the odds in a tough race. Sunrise Ruby did more than enough first-up and the extra 100m suits. Jal Lei is ready to win now and back to her own sex suits. There’s a few negatives for Glittery being up in class with a big weight from a wide draw but was very dominant winning last start.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Matt Jones and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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