Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Victoria Derby day on Saturday
The irrepressible Gai Waterhouse and her training partner Adrian Bott can post another Group 1 win in Saturday’s Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington.
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Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters previews every race for Saturday’s Victoria Derby meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
IN THE CONGO (Race 7, No.4)
Quality colt that showed a lot of heart to beat subsequent Caulfield Guineas winner Anamoe in the Golden Rose and the drop back to 1200m won’t worry him.
VALUE BET
SUPERSTORM (Race 8, No.3)
Superstorm ran on well and should have finished a touch closer in the Toorak Handicap and looks set to get the pace on that he needs in the Cantala.
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 3, 4, 8/1, 2, 3, 4, 10/1, 2, 3/1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 15
$100 flexi for 27.77 per cent
BIG6
1, 2, 3/1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 15/1, 2, 4/4, 6, 9/3, 6, 7, 14/1, 9
$100 flexi for 7.71 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1, 2, 4
Race 8: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
Race 9: 3, 6, 7, 14
Race 10: 1, 2, 7, 9
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
RACE 1 (12:20PM): GROUP 3 CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
The Carbine Club is the traditional start to the Melbourne Cup Carnival and PRIX DE TURN (3) can get punters off to a strong start in the four-meeting marathon. His run in the Caulfield Guineas was excellent for a maiden and he’ll find this a bit easier. BRIGANTINE (1) was solid in the Stan Fox Stakes in Sydney last start and will be the hardest to beat. FANGIRL (11) is lightly-raced and could measure up against the males. WILSONS PROM (5) is up a fair way in class but is promising.
SUGGESTED BET: Prix De Turn to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Prix De Turn $4.80-$3.90.
RACE 2 (1PM): GROUP 3 LEXUS HOTHAM STAKES (2500m)
The Hotham Stakes is the last chance for some of these to make the Melbourne Cup field, but LE DON DE VIE (3) looks the one to beat after a sound effort in the Geelong Cup last start. He’s about ready to win after three runs this time in. MIRAGE DANCER (1) was another to perform OK in the Geelong Cup and he could find this a shade easier. GREAT HOUSE (4) chased honestly in the Caulfield Cup and is worth thought despite rising 7.5kg for this. SOUS LE NUAGES (8) looks ready for this trip after he was unsuited in a slowly-run race at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Le Don De Vie to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Kings Charisma $17-$6.50.
RACE 3 (1:40PM): GROUP 2 WAKEFUL STAKES (2000m)
The traditional VRC Oaks lead-up features a field of 11 fillies, but EL PATRONESS (3) will enjoy racing against her own sex after taking on the males at her last couple of runs. She’ll get every chance to either control the race or box seat from barrier two. YEARNING (1) finished hard to win the Thousand Guineas over 1600m last start and the 2000m looks suitable. DAISIES (2) was well ridden to get the money at Caulfield and has drawn for a softer run. BARB RAIDER (4) found the 1600m a shade short in the Thousand Guineas but looks suited at 2000m.
SUGGESTED BET: El Patroness to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: El Patroness $6-$3.70.
RACE 4 (2:20PM): GROUP 2 LINLITHGOW STAKES (1200m)
Tricky field here but INSTANT CELEBRITY (3) could improve sharply back at 1200m. She wasn’t disgraced over 1400m at her last two runs but she’s a Group 1 winner over 1200m and looks suited here. SAMIZDAT (6) is another that could improve over 1200m after two 1400m runs. KEMENTARI (1) was a game winner at his last run down the straight and should be respected as should the consistent KEMALPASA (2).
SUGGESTED BET: Instant Celebrity each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Oxley Road $3.60-$3.20.
RACE 5 (3PM): GROUP 1 TAB EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)
A cracking edition of the Empire Rose Stakes should be one of the highlights of the day. Hard race to pick but going with TOFANE (3) after she drew perfectly in barrier two. Her two runs over 1600m have been terrific and she’ll get a soft run from the gate. MYSTIC JOURNEY (2) looms as a danger after excellent efforts at her two runs this time in. STILL A STAR (5) won the Rose Of Kingston Stakes last time out and has been kept up to the mark with a trial since. COLETTE (1) bounced back to winning form at Caulfield and is suited at weight-for-age.
SUGGESTED BET: Tofane to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tofane $4-$3.40.
RACE 6 (3:45PM): GROUP 1 VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)
A few winning chances in this year’s Victoria Derby but TUTUKAKA (2) was impressive with the way he let down at the end of 2200m in the Geelong Classic. He’ll relax well and another 300m won’t worry him in the Derby. GUNSTOCK (4) has drawn awkwardly but does everything right and should still be thereabouts. FORGOT YOU (1) lifted late to win the Moonee Valley Vase last Saturday and has the right Derby formlines. CHARACTER (6) doesn’t have much of a turn of foot but will certainly see out the 2500m strongly.
SUGGESTED BET: Tutukaka to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Hitotsu $8-$6.50
RACE 7 (4:30PM): GROUP 1 COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200M)
This could be the best race of the day with a terrific line-up of three-year-olds to charge down the Flemington straight. IN THE CONGO (4) has the typical Tulloch Lodge toughness, which was on show in his fighting Golden Rose win and will make him hard to get past late in this race. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have gone for blinkers, which will help for the drop back to 1200m. EXTREME WARRIOR (9) rocketed into contention for this race with his Blue Sapphire Stakes win and he’ll be the hardest to beat. PAULELE (6) has impressed in Sydney and could measure up to this. ARTORIUS (2) drops back from the 1600m of the Caulfield Guineas but will be finishing hard.
SUGGESTED BET: In The Congo to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: In The Congo $5.50-$4.20.
RACE 8 (5:10PM): GROUP 1 KENNEDY CANTALA (1600m)
The Cantala is usually on of the hardest races on the Derby Day card and this year is no exception. SUPERSTORM (3) is a great each-way chance in what should be a strongly-run race after running on well in the Toorak Handicap and Damien Oliver sticks with him. ICEBATH (7) backs up from last Saturday’s Invitation in Sydney, but she’ll go close if she repeats Epsom Handicap run. MR BRIGHTSIDE (14) is the new kid on the block but is flying and only has 52kg. ARAMAYO (6) went down narrowly in the Epsom Handicap and is drawn to get his chance.
SUGGESTED BET: Superstorm each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Riodini $15-$9.
RACE 9 (5:50PM): GROUP 3 FURPHY SPRINT (1100m)
The last is a great challenge for punters looking to end Derby Day on a high note. BALLISTIC LOVER (9) is over the odds after her brave effort in the Moir Stakes at The Valley. She has easily won a trial since and drops back to Group 3 level for this. SEPTEMBER RUN (1) was a beaten favourite at Caulfield but expect her to lift sharply back down the Flemington straight. WRITTEN BEAUTY (7) will be fitter for two runs back from a spell and is a winner down the Flemington straight. SWATS THAT (2) drops back from Group 1 level after struggling in the Manikato Stakes, but she also has a strong straight-track record.
SUGGESTED BET: Ballistic Lover to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Ballistic Lover $9 – $7.50.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for Flemington and Rosehill.
BEST BET: Great House (Flemington, R2 No. 4)
VALUE BET: Minsk Moment (Flemington, R7 No.15)
LAY OF THE WEEK: In The Congo (Flemington, R7 No.4)
LEXUS HOTHAM STAKES (2500M)
Flemington, R2, 1pm
A place in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup awaits the winner and the early support has come for the Chris Waller-trained Great House.
Great House followed a strong win in the Newcastle Cup by running fifth in both The Metropolitan and last start in the Caulfield Cup.
He has been backed from $2.70 into $2.60.
Mankayan has had four placings in four runs since relocating to Australia and is on the second line of betting at $3.20.
THE TIP: GREAT HOUSE
VICTORIA DERBY (2500M)
Flemington, R6, 3.45pm
The four at the top of the market appear to be the clear winning chances.
The race changed complexion when the well-backed favourite Gunstock drew gate 19. But the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr-trained runner won the Neds Classic strongly and must still be respected.
Forgot You comes into the race on the back of a good win in last Saturday’s Drummond Golf Vase over 2400m and has had an ideal Derby preparation.
Hitotsu followed a strong win at Donald with an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Guineas and gives the indication that he will run a strong 2500m. He looks a safe each-way play.
Tutukaka benefited from a perfect Damian Lane ride in the Geelong Classic and must be respected.
If you wanted to include a bolter in the exotics, Geelong Classic runner-up Character is worth considering at $31 the win and $8 the place.
THE TIP: FORGOT YOU win, HITOTSU each-way
COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200M)
Flemington, R7, 4.30pm
The early money has come for In The Congo, who has been backed from $5.50 into $4.60 joint favouritism.
In the Congo held off a fast-finishing Anamoe in the Golden Rose last start but does drop back to 1200m, where he is winless in two attempts.
Extreme Warrior couldn’t have been more impressive last start in the Blue Sapphire when winning by nearly four lengths and warrants respect.
I think there is a blowout chance. Minsk Moment, from the Chris Waller stable, is my selection at $41 the win and $10 the place.
He resumed from a spell with a strong win at The Valley and was run off his feet in the middle stages last start behind Extreme Warrior before sticking on well. I like the high draw for him and he is over the odds.
THE TIP: MINSK MOMENT each-way
GOLDEN EAGLE (1500M)
Rosehill, R7, 4.50pm
I’ve loved I’m Thunderstruck from the moment he won on debut at Caulfield in January.
He followed an eye-catching third in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes by winning the Group 1 Toorak Handicap under a great ride by Jye McNeil.
His trackwork at Rosehill this week indicated he will again be primed to fire on Saturday.
Private Eye shapes as the danger and is on the second line of betting at $6.50.
THE TIP: I’M THUNDERSTRUCK each-way
Stewards query Pride Of Jenni Toorak entry
Racing Victoria stewards have inquired into leading trainer Ciaron Maher’s decision to enter star mare Pride Of Jenni for Saturday’s Group 1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield.
Melbourne Cup weight penalty for Bart Cummings winner
Just Fine’s gutsy win earned him a Melbourne Cup weight penalty, while Racing Victoria also announced penalties for last Saturday’s Epsom Handicap and Metropolitan winners.