Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday

Former US galloper Lighthouse has made light work of her Australian opposition and has the prefect set-up to notch a hat-trick.

Lighthouse is going for three wins in a row. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner previews every race for Saturday’s Flemington meeting. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.

BEST BET

LIGHTHOUSE (R6 No.2)

VALUE BET

PROPER ROGUE (R9 No.2)

EARLY QUADDIE

2, 3, 4/4, 6, 8, 9/2, 5, 10/2, 3, 4

$100 flexi for 92.59 per cent

BIG6

2, 3, 5/2, 3, 4/2/2, 6, 11/1, 3, 10, 11/8, 9, 13

$100 flexi for 30 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 4

Race 7: 2, 6, 11

Race 8: 1, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12

Race 9: 1, 2, 8, 9, 13

$100 flexi for 55 per cent

RACE 1 (12:35PM): GREG MILES TROPHY (1100M)

HELL HATH NO FURY (8) has impressed connections privately from day dot. Debuts without a trial but in top order and must be respected. Strong performance on Saturday would enhance Magic Millions aspirations. Stablemate STUPENDO (5) has the services of Craig Williams and from middle alley should be hard to beat. OUT OF AFLICA launched late to win on debut in Adelaide. Respect the stable when they bring horses across the border. Godolphin pair KIN (9) and VA VIA (10) inevitably should be around the mark. Tough way to start the day.

SUGGESTED BET: HELL HATH NO FURY (8) each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Epic Centre $18-$8.50.

RACE 2 (1.10PM) BREW LIVING LEGENDS HANDICAP (1600M)

ELUDING (2) has been ultra-impressive winning his past two starts at Warrnambool and Sandown Lakeside. Cruised up like a horse going places last start and surged by in the closing stages. Drawn perfectly and apprentice Madison Lloyd would know the horse well from her work with the stable. HASSELTOFF (4) should find this a lot easier than recent assignments. Won and placed twice at Flemington previously. ROYAL ORDER (5) and BRASADA (7) been racing consistently and should again be around the mark.

SUGGESTED BET: ELUDING (2) win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Eluding $3-$3.10-$2.50.

RACE 3 (1.45PM): FIONA McINTYRE SPRINT (1100M)

DANCE TO DUBAI (9) shooting for a hat-trick of wins and gets in light with Alana Kelly’s 3kg allowance. FLORESCENT STAR (6) looks a danger second-up for trainers Amy and Ash Yargi. AWARD WINNER (8) defeated Dance To Dubai second-up last campaign. Rates highly from top stable. Include DIAMONDS (1) in exotics along with ZIMOWY (5).

SUGGESTED BET: DANCE TO DUBAI win.

TAB MARKET

Dance To Dubai has kicked off his current campaign with two wins. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

MOVER: Florescent Star $7-$6.50-$7, Dance To Dubai $4.40-$4.80-$4.

RACE 4 (2.20PM): VALE MAHOGANY HANDICAP (2500M)

SARACEN KNIGHT (2) hard fit now after three preparatory starts and gets the chance to win again. Drop in grade should help the son of Camelot breakthrough for the first time in 15 months. Former French import SEAWHATYOUTHINK (5) has won two of five Australian starts on the provincial circuit. CHAINS OF HONOUR (3) scraped in at The Valley last start. RURU (10) won over 2100m last start but untried beyond that. Respect the stable-jockey combination. Include CANFORD (4) or BLANFORD LAD (6) in trifectas and first fours.

SUGGESTED BET: SARACEN KNIGHT (2) each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Saracen Knight $14-$9.50-$10, Seawhatyouthink $4.40-$3.80.

RACE 5 (3PM): EFFICIENT LIVING LEGENDS PLATE (1400M)

ARRAN BAY (4) comes to Melbourne after back-to-back Adelaide wins, including a last start 4.8-length demolition. In astute stable and well-weighted with gun apprentice aboard. SUNFALL (2) looks a definite danger, especially if they go bonkers upfront. Track and distance winners last preparation. DUBAI NIGHTS (5) should roll forward and make own luck along with BUTTER BLONDE (6). Hard going from Wangaratta maiden to benchmark 70 at Flemington but PHILADELPHIA STORM (7) won with so much authority – despite laying in – he must be included. Jockey Zac Spain in great form too.

SUGGESTED BET: SUNFALL (2) each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Arran Bay $3.20-$3.30-$3.10, Philadelphia Storm $26-$34-$13.

Lighthouse is going for three wins in a row. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 6 (3.40PM): DES GLEESON HANDICAP (1400M)

LIGHTHOUSE (2) has toyed with her opposition the past two starts and wins again. Drawn to stalk the speed and wonderful opportunity for apprentice Matthew Cartwright to add another city win. Second mare behind Lighthouse last start – Frankie Pinot – won last Saturday. BERMADEZ (4) is five weeks between runs, having won brilliantly on Oaks day at Flemington. RANTING (1) over the odds on the quick back-up. Could run a place with even luck. DERIVE (15) is always around the mark and has won two of her past four starts. Include in exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: LIGHTHOUSE win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Lighthouse $2.80-$2.40-$2.50.

RACE 7 (4.20PM): LISTED KENSINGTON STAKES (1000M)

TEQUILA TIME (11) has the right Adelaide form to be competitive here. Looking for a hat-trick and has the benefit of Jamie Kah in the saddle. MILEVA (6) won the Listed Alinghi Stakes first-up and third in the Group 3 Furphy Sprint. Should be in the finish again. HALVORSEN (1) the track and distance specialist with four wins and two seconds placings in 14 visits to Flemington. SARTORIAL SPLENDOR (2) built for speed and should be leading for a long time. Won three of five last campaign including a victory over Halvorsen at Flemington.

SUGGESTED BET: TEQUILA TIME win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: No movements of note.

Tequila Time has won his past two starts in Adelaide. Picture: AAP

RACE 8 (5PM): GARY FENNESSY HANDICAP (1800M)

ROYAL MILE (1) tried to lead all the way last start at Caulfield when nabbed inside the last 200m to finish fourth behind Regalo Di Gaetano. Drops sharply from Group 3 to benchmark 84 but will need an ounce of luck from the wide barrier. Consistent performer SIGN OF USSURI (3) also boasts form around Regalo Di Gaetano. JUST BENJAMIN (6) shared the spoils in a dead-heat victory at Ballarat last start. Should be around the mark again. FIFTH POSITION (10) has been costly for punters and yet again drawn poorly. Respect the important gear change – Jamie Kah first time.

SUGGESTED BET: FIFTH POSITION each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Royal Mile $5.50-$6.50-$5.50, Five Kingdom $21-$10, Mr Cancun $15-$16-$11-$12.

RACE 9 (5.40PM): DARREN GAUCI TROPHY (1200M)

SIXBYSIXTYTHREE (8) puts a perfect record – three from three on the provincial circuit – on the line at Flemington. Will find this harder than previous assignments but cannot knock winning form. KENTUCKY CASANOVA (13) won with authority last start at Sandown Lakeside. Drawn next to Sixbysixtythree so expect the equal favourites to keep each other close in the run. PROPER ROGUE (2) finished third first-up behind the smart Marabi and Savannah Cloud, who has won since. The Snitzel gelding won down the straight as a three-year-old. HOUSAY (1) looks ready to fire third-up, while YULONG CODE (10) has won twice first-up previously.

SUGGESTED BET: PROPER ROGUE each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Sixbysixtythree $6-$5.

NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Flemington and Randwick.

BEST BET: LIGHTHOUSE (Flemington, R6 No.2)

VALUE BET: SECRET GLAMOUR (Flemington, R5 No.10)

LAY OF THE WEEK: MEDIA STARGUEST (Rosehill, R2 No.3)

DES GLEESON HANDICAP (1400m)

Flemington, R6, 3.40pm

Former American mare Lighthouse made it a perfect two from two since relocating to Australia with a dominant win at Ballarat on Cup day where she defeated Frankie Pinot, who franked the form by saluting at Pakenham last Saturday. Lighthouse has already firmed from $2.80 into $2.60 and looks one of the better bets on an open card at headquarters. Bermadez has also won his past two starts and is on the second line of betting at $5. He has won four of his seven career starts, including last time out at Flemington and must be respected.

THE TIP: LIGHTHOUSE 

KENSINGTON STAKES (1000m)

Flemington, R7, 4.20pm

Halvorsen caused a boilover on Oaks day when winning the Century Stakes at $51 and heads the market here at $5.50. He is a four-time winner at Flemington and the high draw should assist. He does have to lump 60kg but must be respected. I am leaning towards Mileva, from the Stokes stable. She was building a nice resume in Adelaide before transferring from Dan Clarken and Oopy MacGillivray to Phillip Stokes. Her two starts for the new camp resulted in a win at Caulfield and a Flemington placing and she looks to have plenty of upside. Tequila Time has resumed from a spell with two wins in Adelaide and with Jamie Kah in the saddle is another one worth including.

THE TIP: MILEVA each-way

Mileva is now with trainer Phillip Stokes. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

CHRISTMAS CUP (2400m)

Randwick, R4, 2.05pm

Mightybeel has been the favourite in his past five starts for three wins and two seconds. He is currently $2.80 favourite for the Christmas Cup, ahead of Herman Hesse, who has firmed from $3.70 into $2.90. Herman Hesse has been freshened after just being beaten at Randwick in November. The top two in the market are progressive gallopers who will be worth sticking with as they race through this middle distance and staying races. I expect Herman Hesse to start favourite.

THE TIP: HERMAN HESSE

VILLIERS STAKES (1600M)

Randwick, R8, 4.40pm

The money has come for the last-start Kembla Grange winner Steely since the draw, backed from $6 into $4.80 and the new favourite at that quote. Ellsberg is in terrific form and is my top selection. Her past four starts include two Rosehill victories and a second placing in the Silver Eagle. She has drawn nicely and with Tim Clark in the saddle is a strong each-way play. I Am Superman was pipped by Sinawann at Caulfield last start and is worth a small bet.

THE TIP: ELLSBERG and I AM SUPERMAN each-way