Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Caulfield Cup day on Saturday
The Caulfield Cup favourite will be hard to beat but an unlucky runner at Flemington last start could produce a surprise result.
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters previews every race for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup meeting. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.
BEST BET
SANDY PRINCE (Race 3, No.4)
Sandy Prince led but was only nabbed late in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley. He’s back to 1400m for this and could control this race from the front again.
VALUE BET
EL PATRONESS (Race 5, No.13)
Surprised El Patroness isn’t shorter in betting after her fighting win against the males at Flemington last time out. The 2000m won’t worry her and she’ll be hard to beat again.
EARLY QUADDIE
2, 4, 6, 7, 8/6, 8, 9, 10 /1, 4, 6, 13/1, 4, 5, 7
$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent
BIG6
4, 6, 13/1, 5, 7/2, 4, 8/2, 6, 10, 13/2, 11, 15, 16/1, 10, 11
$100 flexi for 25 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 7: 2, 4, 8
Race 8: 2, 6, 10, 13
Race 9: 1, 2, 10, 11, 12, 15, 16
Race 10: 1, 10, 11
$100 flexi for 39.68 per cent
RACE 1 (12:15PM): MAGIC MILLIONS GRAND HANDICAP (1700m)
Hard to know the exact Caulfield track rating for Saturday with the rain predicted for Friday but working in the soft range at this stage. Interesting start to the Caulfield Cup Day card with a rare Benchmark 80 race to start the day. EAGLES CRAG (10) is on the up and should continue to improve on his easy Benalla win last month. MIMI’S AWARD (7) ran on soundly behind the smart Sirileo Miss at Sandown and will be improved. TRODAIRE (13) chased home Eagles Crag last time out and is racing well. COOLTH (6) drops back in trip after tackling a much stronger race at The Valley and could improve.
SUGGESTED BET: Eagles Crag to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Eagles Crag $2.80 – $2
RACE 2 (12:50PM): TILE IMPORTER TROPHY (1400m)
A small but even field of three-year-old fillies will contest this race and LADY ADELAIDE (4) could measure up to this after a strong win in soft ground at Sale second-up. She’ll only be fitter for this. VIANNELLO (1) was solid in stakes class at Sandown last time out and must be respected. GAME LEGEND (5) was OK behind the smart Barb Raider at Flemington and should be competitive. STERN IMPULSE (3) was outsprinted in a small field at Ballarat last time but could improve on softer footing.
SUGGESTED BET: Small bet on Lady Adelaide.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Game Legend $9.50 – $8.50.
RACE 3 (1:25PM): LISTED GOTHIC STAKES (1400m)
Good three-year-old contest, which usually leads into the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington. SANDY PRINCE (4) raced on the pace but was only nabbed late in Group 2 company at The Valley last time out. He can again give them something to chase. PRINCE ALEXANDER (7) wasn’t disgraced in the Stutt Stakes and should find this easier. CHEERFUL LEGEND (6) was too good for older horses at Mornington first-up and should relish the 1400m. MISTER ME (8) impressed with his first-up win at Mornington and could measure up.
SUGGESTED BET: Sandy Prince to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Extreme Flight $3.90 – $3.50.
RACE 4 (2PM): GROUP 3 ETHEREAL STAKES (1200m)
The VRC Oaks build-up continues in the Ethereal Stakes for three-year-old fillies. KAPALUA SUNSET (10) was an outstanding Kyneton winner when up in trip second-up and looks a bright staying prospect. TIZ MY BAY (8) ran a solid third in the Oaks Trial at Flemington and 2000m looks suitable. GLINT OF HOPE (6) did a good job in the Edward Manifold Stakes and is bred for this trip. STALKING (3) did her best work late in the Manifold Stakes and shouldn’t be far away.
SUGGESTED BET: Kapalua Sunset to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Kapalua Sunset $2.90 – $2.25
RACE 5 (2:35PM): GROUP 3 NEDS CLASSIC (2000m)
The Neds Classic is one of the key lead-ups to the Victoria Derby but the fillies have gone well in the race in recent years. EL PATRONESS (13) could be another filly to perform well in this event after beating the males at Flemington last time out. She’ll certainly see out the 2000m. GUNSTOCK (5) was close-up behind El Patroness at Flemington and should go well on his home track as should his stablemate TIZ MAGIC (4). MICRO (1) was beaten a length in the Stutt Stakes at The Valley and should run well over this longer trip.
SUGGESTED BET: El Patroness to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Micro $5.50 – $4.60
RACE 6 (3:10PM): GROUP 3 MOONGA STAKES (1400m)
Tough race to finish the early quaddie at Caulfield but giving GAULOIS (5) another chance with the likely soft ground at Caulfield. He was caught wide and not disgraced at Flemington last time out and could improve with a softer run here. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (7) showed a glimpse of his best form when just run down late at Sandown and he’s a Group 1 winner over the Caulfield 1400m course. ZOUTORI (1) has looked like the 1400m would suit in his two runs this time in. JUSTACANTA (4) was a solid winner at Flemington at his third run this time in and will be fitter again.
SUGGESTED BET: Gaulois each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Buffalo River $4.20 – $3.30
RACE 7 (3:45PM): GROUP 2 TRISTARC STAKES (1400m)
COLETTE (2) has had a foot abscess since her run in the Makybe Diva Stakes but if she’s right, she should win, especially if the track comes up soft or heavy. PRIDE OF JENNI (8) ran a great race when narrowly beaten at big odds at Group 2 level at Flemington last time out. STEINEM (10) will improve sharply on her first-up run and could surprise at odds. CHAILLOT (4) charged home to win at Sandown first-up and is worth thought again here.
SUGGESTED BET: Colette to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Colette $4 – $3.20.
RACE 8 (4:30PM): LISTED ALINGHI STAKES (1100m)
This is clearly the hardest race of the day for punters and the key race to Saturday’s Caulfield quaddie. BLESS HER (6) wasn’t far away when resuming at Sandown last time out and she is a better mare on soft or heavy ground. She also has blinkers on for the first time on Saturday. RAINBIEL (13) ran on OK behind the impressive Lombardo at The Valley and wasn’t disgraced at Group 2 level last time in. VARDA (2) was narrowly beaten second-up and was a Listed winner in Brisbane during the winter. RUBISAKI (10) went winless last time in but she’ll go close if she’s anywhere near her best.
SUGGESTED BET: Bless Her each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Emanate $7.50 – $6.
RACE 9 (5:15PM): GROUP 1 CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
Wednesday’s barrier draw complicated matters while the uncertain weather forecast hasn’t made finding the Caulfield Cup winner any easier either. MASTER OF WINE (11) was unlucky not to have gone close to winning the Bat Cummings at Flemington in a much improved run last time out and he wasn’t disgraced after leading in last year’s Caulfield Cup. Drawing the outside gate makes it tougher but INCENTIVISE (2) will still be extremely hard to beat and it’s worth noting he’s unbeaten on soft ground. YOUNG WERTHER (15) fought on well behind INCENTIVISE (15) in the Turnbull Stakes and should be around the mark. NONCONFORMIST (16) impressed with his Might And Power second last Saturday and races best at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: Back both Master Of Wine each-way and Incentivise to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: The Chosen One $15 – $12.
RACE 10 (5:50PM): GROUP 2 CAULFIELD SPRINT (1000m)
Tough finish to a big day’s racing but speedy filly ENTHAAR (11) can end the day on a high for punters. She hasn’t raced since the Blue Diamond but is classy and will go well fresh. SWATS THAT (1) did it tough in the Moir Stakes but will improve sharply with a softer run. MALKOVICH (3) went down narrowly in the Monash Stakes at Caulfield at his last run and has won two trials since. GENERAL BEAU (8) is honest and can be relied on to perform well again in this.
SUGGESTED BET: Enthaar to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Enthaar $8 – $4.20.
NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Caulfield and Randwick.
BEST BET: Delphi each-way (Caulfield, R9 No.10
VALUE BET: Rainbiel (Caulfield, R8 No.13)
LAY OF THE WEEK: Sandy Prince (Caulfield, R3 No.4)
TRISTARC STAKES (GROUP 2, 1400m)
Caulfield, R7, 3.45pm
If the rain comes then the James Cummings-trained mare Colette looks an excellent prospect at about the $4 mark.
She is three from three on heavy ground and a two-time winner on soft.
She drops in grade after chasing home Incentivise last start in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes.
With Damian Lane in the saddle and from a nice draw, she looks the winner.
If there is a danger to Colette, it looks to be the classy Chaillot, who resumed from a spell with a win.
THE TIP: COLETTE
CAULFIELD CUP (GROUP 1, 2400m)
Caulfield, R9, 5.15pm
Incentivise is a dominant favourite, having won eight in a row, including two Group 1s, since breaking his maiden.
But it is hard taking odds-on in a Caulfield Cup. At a better price, I am happy to back Delphi with one unit the win by four the place.
Delphi was an emphatic winner of last Saturday’s Herbert Power. With a light weight and Damien Oliver on board, he looks a tremendous chance.
Queensland Oaks winner Duais tuned up for the Caulfield Cup with a strong win on Wednesday in the Coongy Cup.
TAB slashed her odds from $34 to $13 and she is worth including in the multiples.
THE TIP: DELPHI each-way
CAULFIELD SPRINT (GROUP 2, 1000m)
Caulfield, R10, 5.50pm
Malkovich has been well backed throughout the week and is now $4. He had a terrific winter, winning at Randwick and Caulfield before being nabbed on the post by Red Can Man in the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes.
But I am leaning towards Oxley Road. He won his first two starts, and his two runs this campaign have been full of merit, including placing behind Miss Albania at Flemington when on the wrong side of the track.
THE TIP: OXLEY ROAD each-way
THE EVEREST (1200m)
Randwick, R7, 4.15pm
Kerrin McEvoy has won the Everest three times from its four editions and will ride last year’s winner, Classique Legend.
The speedy grey had a failed stint in Hong Kong but a recent barrier trial showed he was back on track.
Nature Strip must be respected, but his kryptonite, Eduardo, is also in the race.
I suspect the winner will come off the speed and I expect that horse will be Masked Crusader.
He looked like Chautauqua last start, weaving a passage to victory in the Premiere Stakes against many Everest rivals.
THE TIP: MASKED CRUSADER each-way
Ray and Duff’s Randwick tips, analysis for Saturday: $6 best bet
Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy has been taken with the trials of a proven Group 1 performer who goes around at juicy odds on Saturday. Get Duff and Ray’s tips for Randwick.
Minister makes call on Greyhound Racing NSW board
Following months of turmoil, Minister for Racing David Harris has decided on the immediate future of the board of Greyhound Racing NSW.