Raceday focus: Tips, analysis and best bets for Ballarat Cup day on Saturday

Former US galloper Lighthouse made a statement in her local debut and is a horse to keep following at Ballarat.

Ex-American galloper Lighthouse won easily in her Australian debut. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner previews every race for Saturday’s Ballarat Cup meeting. Plus, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag.

BEST BET

LIGHTHOUSE (R1 No.4)

VALUE BET

SKYMAN (Race 8, No.15)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 4, 11/3, 6/4, 5/8

$100 flexi for 625 per cent

BIG6

4, 5/8/5, 12/6, 11, 13, 15/1, 6, 11/3, 5, 6, 7

$100 flexi for 52.08 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 5, 8, 12

Race 7: 6, 11, 13, 15

Race 8: 1, 6, 11

Race 9: 3, 5, 6, 7

$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent

RACE 1 (12:10PM): BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP (1400M)

Stakes-performed American mare LIGHTHOUSE (4) bolted in her Australian debut at Kyneton winning by four lengths under a hold in heavy conditions. Mare going places and worth following. KURABUI (6) will be up for the fight also, having won four of five career starts. Drawn perfectly and should be strong at the finish. Winner of a Benalla trial recently and form franked days later with runner-up Portland Jimmy clinching the Donald Cup. FRANKIE PINOT (1) has won (four) or placed in 12 of 14 career starts. Strikes a hot race here though.

SUGGESTED BET: LIGHTHOUSE (4) win.

Ex-American galloper Lighthouse won easily in her Australian debut. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 2 (12.40PM): VOBIS GOLD EUREKA STOCKADE (1400M)

SUNFALL (1) returns after a short break in what looks a winnable race. Craig Newitt has ridden the Zoustar gelding three times for a win and two third-placed finishes. The win was first-up in July when Sunfall surged from near last in soft conditions at Geelong. SWEAR BY HER (8) very impressive winning a Pakenham maiden and should be respected. DAILY BUGLE (2) has been up a while but clearly thrives on the work. Group 2 placed in the spring. DECENT RAINE (7) drops in grade and will appreciate getting toe in the ground.

SUGGESTED BET: SUNFALL (1) each-way.

RACE 3 (1.10PM): MAGIC MILLIONS BALLARAT 2YO CLASSIC (1000M)

A lottery race this. Respect the stable-jockey combination with FLY NICE (11) and market support suggests two-year-old daughter of Impending will be hard to toss. LE GAGNEUR (1) was best of the rest on debut at Flemington behind Brereton and Renosu. Definite danger. NEGATION (12) trialled nicely in Sydney so keep safe. NOTHING SILLY (2) was strong to the line in a Bendigo maiden victory. CUSAK (5) and EPIC CENTRE (6). Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained KINGS CONSORT (4) the best roughie.

SUGGESTED BET: FLY NICE (11) win.

RACE 4 (1.45PM): BENCHMARK 78 (1200M)

DUCHESS OF DORSET (6) was heavily backed in favourite at Flemington on Stakes Day but mowed down late in the race to finish third. Won three of five career starts and will appreciate racing on rain-affected ground. Adelaide trainer Ryan Balfour likes this meeting, having trained a winner and runner-up the past two years. So with that in mind, respect SO SAY ANGEL (9). LA BELLA COSTA (10) has two wins and a placing from six starts second-up previously. Rattled into fifth last start at Flemington, a length behind Duchess Of Dorset.

SUGGESTED BET: DUCHESS OF DORSET (6) win.

RACE 5 (2.20PM): OPEN HANDICAP (1200M)

SIRIUS SUSPECT (1) is the class sprinter in the field although he usually saves best for Flemington. Only battled early in preparation but last-start second in a Listed race puts him in the picture. IT’SOURTIME (4) resumed after a long break with a smart Flemington victory first-up. Sat midfield and soft on the line. Will take a power of beating. THE GAUCH (5) has been consistent in lower grades and gets a chance to step up here. Gets in light with only 52kg on his back. SAM’S IMAGE (7) disappointed first-up but form prior makes him competitive. Include in exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: SIRIUS SUSPECT (1) each-way.

Sirius Suspect found some form last start. Picture: AAP

RACE 6 (3PM): BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (1100M)

MARABI (8) unbeaten in three starts – all as favourite – with a combined winning margin of about 16 lengths. Speed to burn and from barrier one should set the pace again. First-up since February the only query and yet to be tested on a wet track under race conditions. MAGNAJET put up a great fight running second behind It’sourtime at Flemington. See how that form stacks up in Race 5. SAVANNAH CLOUD in astute hands. Just the one win from seven starts but five minor prizes has the Savabeel gelding in the mix.

SUGGESTED BET: MARABI win.

RACE 7 (3.40PM): BENCHMARK 84 (2000M)

KISSINGER (12) chased hard to finish second at Geelong last start. Boasts a perfect record (2-2) third-up and likes the sting out of the ground. Drawn nicely and gets in light. Definite each-way chance. ALCYONE (5) has built a nice record, winning three of 11 starts and placing on four other occasions. Too strong last start at Flemington holding out Lunatic Fringe. Finished second and third respectively two starts prior behind Mr Brightside and Durston. FIFTH POSITION (8) narrowly missed at Flemington last start. Will be having last crack at them.

SUGGESTED BET: KISSINGER each-way.

RACE 8 (4.20PM): LISTED BALLARAT CUP (2000M)

THOUGHT OF THAT (11) has rediscovered his zest for racing and relishes being ridden on speed. Won comfortably at The Valley last start with Linda Meech in the saddle and primed to repeat the dose. SKYMAN (15) looms as the biggest threat, having placed in four of the past six starts. Runner-up behind Thought Of That two starts back but meets the favourite slightly better at the weights. ZAYYDANI (6) was an impressive winner at Flemington and been racing consistently for some time. QUANTUM MECHANIC (5) would be half the price with a better draw. Place chance.

SUGGESTED BET: THOUGHT OF THAT win

RACE 9 (5PM): BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP (1600M)

BERMADEZ (1) shooting for a hat-trick. Shocking draw makes it hard but the versatile galloper loves soft conditions. Damien Oliver pulled off a brilliant ride to win on Oaks Day, coming from near last on Bermadez to nail Typhoon Harmony. History can repeat. TYPHOON HARMONY (11) racing consistently and unlucky not to be a last-start winner. ORLEANS ROCK (6), SACCHARO (7) and SEINERS EXPRESS (8) next best in a wide open race.

SUGGESTED BET: BERMADEZ each-way.

RACE 10 (5.40PM): MAGIC MILLIONS BALLARAT CLASSIC (1100M)

OUTLAWS REVENGE (2) only been on soft ground once – Gawler maiden last year – and won by 3.3 lengths. Harder here but could get a nice two into the race with FAKE LOVE (11) and STARRY LEGEND (6) hammering on speed. MARINE ONE (7) wins at Swan Hill and The Valley were full of merit. The Capitalist colt then matched motors with the best three-year-old sprinters in the land in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. EASY SINGLE (3) best of the rest.

SUGGESTED BET: OUTLAWS REVENGE (2) each-way.

NICK QUINN’S MAILBAG

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Ballarat, Kembla Grange and Ascot.

BEST BET: Malkovich (Kembla Grange, R7 No.3)

VALUE BET: Zayydani (Ballarat, R8 No.6)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Tommy Shelby (Sandown Park greyhounds, Friday, R6 No.8)

BALLARAT CUP (2000M)

Ballarat, R8, 4.20pm

This race has been a challenge for punters; since 2012 the average winning starting price is $16. This year there is a commanding favourite in THOUGHT OF THAT. He was backed from $11 into $9 in pre-post betting and now heads the market at $3.60.

He comes into this having won three in a row including a dominant last-start Moonee Valley victory.

The runner I am leaning to, especially staking more the place than the win, is ZAYYDANI at $8 and $2.70. She comes into the race having won the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes at Flemington last start over this 2000m trip. ONLY WORDS from the Chris Waller stable has been backed from $13 into $8. She returned to winning ways at The Valley last start.

THE TIP:  ZAYYDANI each-way

Zayydani winning the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes at Flemington. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

THE WARRA (1000M)

Kembla Grange, R7, 4pm

MALKOVICH has been runner-up in both runs this campaign, causing frustration for backers.

First-up the jockey dropped the whip over the concluding stages, and he went down narrowly to Oxley Road, before being heavily backed at Flemington last start only to be run down by bolter Halvorsen. Hopefully it is third time lucky this preparation, and he firmed early in the week from $3.50 into $2.80, and subsequently into $2.50 since the draw.

ELEVEN ELEVEN is the only other firmer since the draw, backed from $9 into $8, and drops back to 1000m where he has three wins and a placing from four attempts.

THE TIP: MALKOVICH

THE TAB GONG (1600M)

Kembla Grange, R8, 4.40pm

COUNT DE RUPEE was being hailed the winner last start in the Golden Eagle before being nabbed in the shadows by the brilliant I’m Thunderstruck, and should he reproduce that form he’ll be mighty hard to beat in Saturday’s $1m race. The Robert and Luke Price-trained four-year-old was beaten at Kembla Grange on debut but has won all three subsequent starts on the track. He was backed from $3.20 into $2.80 in the all-in market but is now $3.40 after coming up with a wide draw

The market mover is ATISHU who has been backed from $12 into $7. There was also early support for BRUTALITY, from $101 into $26, but he is the fourth emergency.

THE TIP: COUNT DE RUPEE 

RAILWAY STAKES (1600M)

Ascot, R8, 7.45pm

Punters will be turning to darling jockey William Pike to help them end the day with a winner as he rides the heavily backed WESTERN EMPIRE. The Grant and Alana Williams-trained runner has won five in a row and looks the winner.

THE TIP: WESTERN EMPIRE