Raceday focus: Gilbert Gardiner’s best bets for Geelong Cup Day
An Irish hurdler turned flat revelation will try to emulate Media Puzzle’s 2002 spring heroics in the Group 3 Geelong Cup. Plus, Gilbert Gardiner picks out the best bets on the card.
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An Irish hurdler turned flat revelation will try to emulate Media Puzzle’s 2002 spring heroics in the Group 3 Geelong Cup on Wednesday.
True Self sits at No.41 in the Melbourne Cup order of entry but would seriously advance claims to a start with victory at Geelong.
Media Puzzle was the second of master Irish trainer Dermot Weld’s Melbourne Cup winners. His first, Vintage Crop in 1993, was transformed from a hurdler to elite stayer.
Trainer Willie Mullins hopes to achieve the same with True Self, whose 18 starts have yielded eight wins, including black-type flat victories.
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Dave Casey, travelling foreman for Mullins, said True Self had had an uncomplicated preparation. Casey said it was unfortunate the seven-year-old mare did not make the field for the Caulfield Cup.
“We felt the horse was up to winning it and would get in it, but there were a few who had a last-minute change of mind,” Casey said. “I think she’s in good form.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
“She’s settled in to a nice rhythm. She’s taken it all in since she’s been here and done everything we’ve asked of her. I think it will be a tough race but she’s there to take part and hopefully she’ll be competitive.”
The Melbourne Cup (3200m) at Flemington on November 5 is the aim with the weight-for-age Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) on November 9 the back-up.
“Life throws up curve balls and different scenarios and she’s progressed a nice amount on the flat,” Casey said. “So we’ll see where we are at after Wednesday. If she doesn’t get in (Melbourne Cup) we may look at the option of the Mackinnon Stakes the following Saturday.”
Apart from True Self, there are three other internationals in the Geelong Cup — Prince Of Arran, Red Galileo and Haky. Six raiders have won the Cup — Media Puzzle, Bauer (2008), Americain (’10), Dunaden (’11), Gatewood (’12) and Qewy (’16).
Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden all went on to win the Melbourne Cup.
GILBERT GARDINER’S TOP PICKS
GEELONG
BEST BET
SUPERNOVA (R7, No.11 $7)
Just peaked on his run last start when second behind Surprise Baby in The Bart Cummings and the third horse that day, Wolfe, went on to maul rivals in the Coongy Cup at his next start to qualify for last Saturday's Caulfield Cup. Distance not a problem and drawn to be a winner.
NEXT BEST
SMART COUPE (R5, No.1 $4.40)
Lightly-raced five year-old mare returns after a three-month break and should be right in the finish with jockey Damien Lane booked to ride. Has not missed a place in five starts first-up, including one win.
OLYMPIC OATH (R1, No.4 $3.90)
Yard had high hopes of the three year-old colt contesting a Victoria Derby next month before three lacklustre performances in city grade. Gets up to the right distance finally and looks ready to win again.
VALUE BET
TROLLEYED (R8, No.5 $23)
Needs luck from barrier 12 but if jockey Brett Prebble is able to jump well and slot in just off the speed without using too much petrol could surprise a few. Superbly named gelding out of the Kiwi mare Legless.
THE JOCKEY
DAMIEN OLIVER
STEEL PRINCE (R7, No.8 $5)
“I think he'll go well ... obviously it's a bit difficult to line up, so many Europeans in the race but he's been on a pretty hot winning streak before the latest couple but he gets to his right distance and nice big track so should run well.”
O'TAUTO (R6, No.7 $11)
“A strong race with Harbour Views and Impi but he's a horse that can run well in a race like that, for sure.”
LOOKING AHEAD
BEST BET (The Valley, Saturday)
MYSTIC JOURNEY (R8, No.12 $6)
The forgotten horse in many respects and all of a sudden has got to a favourable quote for a throw at the stumps.
VALUE BET (The Valley, Saturday)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (R8, No.13 $17)
Might be a year too soon for the Group 1 winning mare but looks to be silly odds on potential. If they go hard up front watch for her to be winding up late.