Raceday focus: Flemington tips, odds and race-by-race analysis

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes a look at Saturday’s Flemington meeting, unleashing his ‘Quadzilla’ on the punters. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS

Straight track specialist Prezado. Picture: Michael Klein

Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner takes a look at Saturday’s Flemington meeting, while form analyst Brad Waters unleashes his Quadzilla.

FLEMINGTON

BEST BET

OVER EXPOSURE (R5, No. 3) $2.70

Desperately unlucky not to get a decent crack at them last start when third at Flemington. Up in trip, down in weight, third up, clear top pick.

NEXT BEST

TINY (R1, No. 7) $5

Meets a smart one in Parlophone but love the way this Godolphin filly attacks the line in races. Need only handle the straight to be right in the finish with Damien Oliver aboard.

HIGH ‘N’ DRY (R2, No. 5) $6

On the quick back-up and unlucky not to finish closer last Saturday at Flemington. Drops back in trip and gets some handy weight relief.

VALUE BET

LI’L KONTRA (R3, No. 1) $10

Adelaide visitor and stable only brings them over when they‘re a chance to win. Has been cluttered up on the rail the past two starts. With clear running, should be hitting the line like a train.

POLANCO (R6, No. 3) $13

Close up second to Vassilator in December and form has stacked up strongly since. Jockey Jye McNeil in form and from the paint could figure in the finish.

THE JOCKEY - JAMIE KAH

Feels a shade repetitive but Melbourne‘s premier jockey has another mighty book.

Kah‘s best chances includes: PARLOPHONE (R1 No. 2 $2.90), HASSELTOFF (R2 No. 4 $2.60), LIQUEURO (R4 No. 3 $5.50), HEAVENLY EMPEROR (R5 No. 7 $2.90), RULE THE WORLD (R6 No. 5 $4.40) and PREZADO (R7 No. 2 $5).

Jockey Jamie Kah. Picture: Pat Scala/Racing Photos via Getty

QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS

LEG 1: RACE 6

A challenging quaddie for punters but one that will provide a decent dividend for any punter lucky enough to get it. A Benchmark84 race starts this week’s Flemington quaddie and five picks should get us the first leg. KAZIO (7) is the top pick but MRMONEY BAGS (4) goes in with his good Flemington record. RULE THE WORLD (5) was strong on the line at Caulfield second-up while VIRAL (7) and SKYMAN (8) are also good winning chances in an interesting first leg.

1ST LEG – 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

LEG 2: RACE 7

The Kensington Stakes is the second leg but thinking we can snag this leg with four picks. Outstanding straight track performers FABERGINO (1) and PREZADO (2) are the two frontline picks but going with a couple as back-up selections in an attempt to coverall bases. PANDEMIC (6) is racing in top form with wins at his last couple of runs and must go into the quaddie along with the up-and-comer SWORD OF MERCY (8), who has impressed in her two wins this time in.

2ND LEG – 1, 2, 6, 8

LEG 3: RACE 8

The third leg shapes as the hardest leg this week with up to half of the 14 runners having some sort of winning chance. Going with the five picks here, headed by the impressive import LONG ARM (2), who will be much fitter for his Australian debut win over 1600m. TAKUMI (10) goes in after an impressive win in a good form race at Caulfield while RE EDIT (5) is racing well for Chris Waller and is a must. SIKORSKY (3) looks ready to improve and could add a bit of value to the quaddie while SAVVYOAK (6) went better than it looks on paper last time out.

3RD LEG: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10

LEG 4: RACE 9

Good straight race again to finish the quaddie this week. I might live to regret it but I’ve cut this leg back to three selections in a bid to fatten up the dividend a bit more. The unbeaten MYSTERY SHOT (3) resumes and if he’s improved in his break, it would be folly to leave him out despite stepping up in grade. TERBIUM (4) is likely to get firmer footing than the slippery surface he ended up on at Caulfield last time out. RUBAN BLEU (6) did his best work late at Caulfield last time out and races best over the 1200m.

4TH LEG: 3, 4, 6

FLEMINGTON

FIRST LEG 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

SECOND LEG 1, 2, 6, 8

THIRD LEG 2, 3, 5, 6, 10

FOURTH LEG 3, 4, 6

COST $100 FOR 33.33%

SKINNY QUADDIE

An aggressive approach to the first leg of the skinny quaddie didn’t pay off last week so we’ll see what a wider approach will achieve this week as I’m unable to get the first leg skinnier than five runners. MR MONEY BAGS (4), RULE THE WORLD (5), VIRAL (6), KAZIO (7) and SKYMAN (8) all go into the first leg. Sticking with the straight specialists FABERGINO (1) and PREZADO (2) in the second leg while cutting the third leg to LONG ARM (3) and TAKUMI (10). MYSTERY SHOT (3) and TERBIUM (4) can hopefully bring it home in the last leg.

FLEMINGTON

FIRST LEG: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

SECOND LEG: 1, 2

THIRD LEG: 3, 10

FOURTH LEG: 3, 4

COST $100 FOR 250%

FOUR-PLAY BRAD WATERS $50 BETTING STRATEGY

FLEMINGTON

RACE 1 FLEMINGTON

KENNEDY PLATE (1100M)

$25 EACH-WAY NANTUCKET (3) at $10/$2.60

Starting the day with an each-way place on Nantucket down the straight. He ran on well when narrowly beaten at Caulfield last time out and is hard fit for three runs this campaign. He was beaten in a photo at his only other run down the straight and should go close again.

RACE 2 FLEMINGTON

SUMMER TWILIGHT RACING TROPHY (1600M)

$25 EACH-WAY HIGH ‘N’ DRY (5) at $7 / $2.20

High ‘N’ Dry looked a chance but just failed to reel in the smart Tycoon Bec at Flemington last week but trainers Mathew Ellerton and Simon Zahra have dropped him back to 1600m this week. Both of his wins have been over that distance and he’ll be harder to hold out this time.

RACE 7 FLEMINGTON

KENSINGTON STAKES (1000M)

$50 WIN PREZADO at $5

Prezado has a lot in his favour when assessing the Kensington Stakes. He’s at his favourite Flemington 1000m course and there’s going to be more than enough early speed to allow him to charge home in the last 200m. He meets his last-start conqueror Fabergino better at the weights and can bounce back.

RACE 8 FLEMINGTON

SEPPELT DRUMBORG TROPHY (2000M)

$50 WIN LONG ARM (2) at $3.70

Long Arm made an impressive entry to Australian racing with his won over 1600m at Flemington on December 19 and he’ll be even harder to beat on Saturday. He’ll be fitter for that run, the step up in trip to 2000m will be perfect for him and he drops in class for this. He’s got plenty in his favour.

Flemington tips: Prezado to prevail in Kensington

- Brad Waters

BEST BET

PREZADO (Race 7, No. 2)

VALUE BET

NANTUCKET (Race 1, No. 3)

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 3, 4, 5, 8/2, 4, 8/1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9/1, 3, 7, 9

$100 flexi for 27.77 per cent

BIG6

4, 6, 9 /1, 3, 9/4, 5, 6, 7, 8/1, 2/2, 5, 10/3, 4, 6

$100 flexi for 12.34 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8

Race 7: 1, 2, 6, 8

Race 8: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10

Race 9: 3, 4, 6

$100 flexi for 33.3 per cent

RACE 1: 1:43PM KENNEDY PLATE (1100m)

Small field of eight runners down the straight course to start the Flemington meeting with tactics to make for an interesting affair. Going with NANTUCKET (3) on top after three excellent efforts this time in, the latest of which was a good second behind the promising Dickin Medal at Caulfield. PARLOPHONE (2) has plenty of ability and should be thereabouts first-up, providing she’s on her best behaviour. LARIAT (8) hit the line well at Caulfield on Boxing Day and is worth thought while TINY (7) comes down from Sydney with a solid record and should be respected.

SUGGESTED BET: Nantucket each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 2: 2:19PM SUMMER TWILIGHT RACING TROPHY (1600m)

HIGH ‘N’ DRY (5) is on the seven-day back-up after chasing the smart Tycoon Bec on this track last Saturday. He might have found the 1800m a bit too far and the drop back to 1600m should as he won over that trip two runs back. DONNDUBHAN (1) has gone well at his three runs back and could be ready to threaten now he’s at peak fitness. The Chris Waller-trained GREAT HOUSE (8) is the query runner at his Australian debut – keep a close eye on the betting. SACCHARO (3) won well on this track last Saturday and rates a winning chance again. HASSELTOFF (4) is another chance in an even race.

SUGGESTED BET: High ‘N’ Dry each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 3: 2:53PM POLYTRACK HANDICAP (1100m)

This Benchmark 84 contest is one of the tougher races on the card but going to have something on the Maher & Eustace-trained Delusions at her third run back from a spell. She made ground at Caulfield on Boxing Day and she’s a winner down the straight. CAUSEWAY GIRL (2) fought on well behind the handy Sword Of Mercy at Caulfield and drops in class for this. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (4) is always around the mark in this type of race and she’ll go well again first-up. MADAM SUPERIOR (11) hasn’t been far away at her last couple in town and could show up back to 1100m.

Trainer Levi Kavanagh can start the day on a high with Nantucket in the opening race of Saturday’s Flemington meeting. Photo: AAP Image/Julian Smith.

SUGGESTED BET: Delusions each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 4: 3:28PM LEXUS SUMMER EVENT TROPHY (2000m)

The staying contest for three-year-olds could be a good pointer to feature races in Tassie in the next few weeks so it could pay to watch it closely. SWIFT SURE (4) has improved with every outing and was too strong over 1700m at Warrnambool last time. He’ll be fine with the jump to 2000m at Flemington. Swift Sure’s stablemate ALLOWAY (6) is showing promise and tried hard in the wet against older horses at Sale. He can improve. MYSTIQUE FALCON (9) tackles this race second-up after being outsprinted over 1400m. He’s a chance with blinkers first time. CHEQUERBOARD (2) is racing honestly and is also worth considering.

SUGGESTED BET: Swift Sure to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

RACE 5: 4:08PM FURPHY REFRESHING ALE TROPHY (1600m)

HEAVENLY EMPEROR (7) was well-backed and landed the money at Caulfield last time after a controversial run here two starts back. Jamie Kah sticks with him and he’ll be hard to beat with only 54kg. KENTUCKY BREEZE (1) closed well when resuming here last month and has won a couple second-up. FIVE KINGDOM (9) raced on the pace and tried hard behind Heavenly Emperor at Caulfield and should go well again. OVER EXPOSURE (3) improved second-up with his third behind Vassilator last time out and will be fitter again for this.

SUGGESTED BET: Heavenly Emperor to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

RACE 6: 4:50PM INCOGNITUS PLATE (1400m)

Probably five strong chances in the first leg of the Flemington quaddie but going with KAZIO (7) as the top pick in what should be a good betting race. He’s hard fit and just missed behind Never Again, who stepped up to win last Saturday’s Chester Manifold Stakes, and he races best at this trip. SKYMAN (8) tackles the shorter trip fresh but he was exciting in his first two runs last time in. MR MONEY BAGS (4) impressed winning on debut for the Lindsey Smith camp and could repeat that effort with even luck. RULE THE WORLD (5) finished well to score at Caulfield second-up and will be fitter. VIRAL (6) is also a chance.

SUGGESTED BET: Kazio each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil

Trainer Phillip Stokes will give the smart sprinter Terbium a chance to redeem himself for his last start disappointment at Flemington on Saturday. Photo: AAP Image/James Ross.

RACE 7: 5:35PM KENSINGTON STAKES (1000M)

The short-course specialists are set to fly down the straight in the Kensington Stakes. Going with PREZADO (2) to reverse the result of his previous meeting with FABERGINO (1) over the same course last month. Prezado meets Fabergino 1.5kg better for their last clash but there’s not much between them. PANDEMIC (6) was excellent in the Christmas Stakes and will run well at his first go down the Flemington straight. SWORD OF MERCY (8) impressed winning an easier race at Caulfield last time and could measure up to this.

SUGGESTED BET: Prezado to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

RACE 8: 6:05PM SEPPELT DRUMBORG TROPHY (2000m)

LONG ARM (2) is a talented import that showed he had settled in well to his Australian surrounds with his strong first-up win at Flemington last month. He’ll only be improved on that effort and looks well suited at the 2000m. TAKUMI (10) ran on well to score at Caulfield on Boxing Day and the form out of that race has stood up. RE EDIT (5) has thrived since moving to Melbourne and will be thereabouts again stepping up to the 2000m trip. SIKORSKY (3) is ready for this trip after a steady effort over 1600m at Caulfield last time out.

SUGGESTED BET: Long Arm to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Nil.

RACE 9: 6:35PM TAB VENUE MODE HANDICAP (1200m)

Competitive affair to finish the Flemington meeting with some handy sprinters set to clash. Giving TERBIUM (4) a chance to atone for his run at Caulfield where he slipped a touch on the home turn and found himself in an awkward spot in the straight. The straight track should suit him. MYSTERY SHOT (3) went through his last campaign unbeaten as a three-year-old and can make the step up to open-age racing this time in. RUBAN BLEU (6) got home hard at Caulfield and is drawn to produce a similar effort here. ALBURQ (10) is consistent and should be thereabouts again.

SUGGESTED BET: Terbium to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Mystery Shot $3.90 – $3.80

Quinny’s mailbag: Favourite booted in late Waller swing

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn looks for a winner on Queensland’s richest race day, the Magic Millions spectacular from the Gold Coast.

Quinny also has a sneak peep at Flemington.

Check out what he likes on one of racing’s great days.

BEST BET

Remarque (Rosehill Saturday, Race 1, No. 7)

VALUE BET

Shaquero (Gold Coast Saturday, Race 6, No. 4

LAY OF THE WEEK

Viral (Flemington Saturday, Race 6, No. 6)

Nick Quinn believes punters will see the best of Shaquero on Saturday.

GOLD COAST SATURDAY

RACE 6

An extremely challenging Magic Millions Classic to assess with the long-time favourite She’s All Class easing slightly after drawing a wide gate.

The Chris Waller-trained filly shot to the top of markets after a stunning win in the Wyong Magic Millions Classic on December 16 when resuming from a spell.

She has drawn barrier 18 and will jump from gate 15 if the emergencies all come out.

She’s All Class is a leading chance but $4.20 appears a rock bottom price from a wide gate and in such a competitive race.

The runner I am tipping is the stablemate to the favourite, Shaquero.

Shaquero burst on to the scene winning the Breeder’s Plate in October and subsequently became a highly fancied Magic Millions runner getting into as short as $4.50 before his first up run.

Shaquero resumed from a spell with an unplaced performance as a $2.25 favourite in the B.J McLaughlin won by the Toby and Trent Edmonds-trained Alpine Edge, who also shapes as a leading contender.

On that occasion Shaquero had no luck in running and was entitled to tire late and returned to form last Saturday finishing second to Finance Tycoon.

The market mover is Swift Witness, who was $26 before saluting in last Saturday’s Gold Pearl and firmed from $4.60 to $4 after gate 11 was selected by connections.

The best backed longshot in pre-post betting is the Darryl Hansen-trained You’ll Be Mist, who comes into the race on the back of a last start win.

Early bets placed at odds on You’ll Be Mist at odds of $101 the win and $26 the place include a $400 each-way and two bets of $150 each-way as well as a $250 each-way at $51.

One punter jumped on Mishani Scandal at $201 with a bet of $100 the win and $200 the place.

SUGGESTED BET: SHAQUERO EACH-WAY

GOLD COAST SATURDAY

RACE 7

A tremendous edition of the Magic Millions Guineas with the money coming for Isotope, who has been backed from $3 into $2.50

Her main rival Away Game is on the second line of betting as a $3.80 second elect.

The pair ran the quinella in the Gold Edition Stakes at Doomben over 1200 metres on December 19 and expect to see the same result here.

On that day Away Game skipped away to what appeared to be a race winning lead before being mowed down by Isotope, who sprouted wings over the concluding stages to salute in a photo finish.

Away Game was only first-up on that occasion and won second-up when successful in the Listed Calaway Gal.

Away Game won the two year-old Magic Millions Classic as a $41 chance on this day last year and steps to 1400m for the first time.

Isotope has resumed with two strong wins and there is no reason why she won’t carry on her winning ways.

She has always had a big boom on her and ever since landing a betting plunge with a 10-length victory on debut and has lived up to the hype.

Isotope opened $11 in pre-post markets and was popular at that quote.

Forbidden Love is a half-sister to gutsy mare Kuramae and comes into the race on the back of a strong win in the Gosford Guineas.

She has been a model of consistency with four wins and four placings from nine career starts.

The longshot who I anticipate will run well is the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace trained Amish Boy.

He has won just one of his nine career starts but has strong form in tougher grade including running sixth in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas won by Ole Kirk and placing in races won by classy gallopers Glenfiddich, Doubtland and Crosshaven.

He is over the odds at $41 the win and $9 the place.

I suggest backing both Isotope and Away Game to lock in equal profit and something tiny each-way on Amish Boy.

TIP: ISOTOPE THE WIN

Mystery Shot is chasing a sixth consecutive win to continue his unbeaten run.

FLEMINGTON SATURDAY

RACE 9

A strong race to end the day with the money coming for the undefeated Mystery Shot to make it a perfect six from six.

He continues to answer every question last campaign including three Caulfield victories and will be worth sticking with as he races through the grades.

He has firmed from $5 into $4.20 and I anticipate the money will continue.

Terbium was beaten by the barrier last start but should enjoy conditions more here from gate seven and is in well at the weights after the three kilo claim for boom apprentice Campbell Rawiller.

Poor Alburq looked to have secured his second career victory at Flemington on New Year’s Day when beaten in a photo finish, he is a model of consistency and is again worth including in the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: MYSTERY SHOT WIN