Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury

Godolphin filly Troach can post her first career win when she steps out in the opener at Canterbury.

James Cummings can open the night at Canterbury on a winning note with Troach. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets for Canterbury, Taree and Scone and runs the rule over every race for Canterbury.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

CANTERBURY

BEST BET

Race 1, No.10: TROACH

Godolphin’s daughter of their former crack two-year-old Anise. Resuming off the back of two great trials.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.4: CALIFORNIA SURREAL

Has some deep form - she almost beat Kooled one day. Trial win 11-days ago points to a first career win.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.3: ISLAND BAY BOY

Won four from 10. Has a bit of an X-Factor about him. Suggest the venue suits him. Has the draw and has the talent.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,6,8

Race 6: 3,6

Race 7: 7

Race 8: 1,3,4,10

Jason Collett has a good book of rides at Canterbury. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Jason Collett has some nice rides; none better than the aptly-named Way To The Stars.

TAREE

BEST BET

Race 2, No.6: TALONS

Ran third to Humble Star and Kiss Sum in the Star Kingdom on debut. Ran well first-up. The one to beat this time.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.2: IMATRUESTAR

Has barely put a foot wrong in her seven starts. Only won once in that time but hasn’t he been in some deep races.

SCONE

BEST BET

Race 7, No.10: LOVERSFIELD

Three-year-old filly taking on all comers in a Bm66 but she looks to have what it takes to measure up favourably.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.2: SPEECH

Lonhro grandson of Forensics who is destined to be short odds but for obvious reasons.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR CANTERBURY

RACE 1

Troach is a daughter of former crack two-year-old Anise. This filly was $41 into $31 when she debuted in the Kirkham and while she was 10th of 13 over the line, she was ‘only’ five lengths off her stablemate, Ojai. Two trials since have been outstanding. James Cummings accepted for the Canonbury on Saturday with Rakomelo. That’s a good lead surely. Great Siege is a stunning type with a big finish and a big future. Street Smarts has run well in two stronger races.

Bet: Troach to win, Great Siege to place

RACE 2

California Surreal has some incredibly deep form for a maiden. The daughter of I Am Invincible was fourth on debut to De An Andretti, 6th to Chill then almost beat Kooled at Gosford prior to that last start 3rd to Akhtar and Dufresne. Trialled like a bomb the other day. Nickelback was $2.40 into $2 at his first start. Ran fourth but it was a Heavy 8 and certainly an above-average Gosford maiden. Super Vogue is a hundred times better than her debut which was affected to a large degree by where she drew.

Bet: California Surreal to win

Kerrin McEvoy rides California Surreal for Peter and Paul Snowden. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Inuwashi is an Irish-bred gelding who was ‘unusual’ on debut in that he went out at $61 despite being a Chris Waller-trained horse. The market got it all wrong that day; the placegetters were $41, $101 and $61. I doubt the runner-up that day, Crime Spree will ever be $101 again. He could deadset end up winning an Epsom or a Doncaster. But I digress, the point is - Inuwashi ran well in a strong maiden. Tailoring is back to 1550m from a 2000m race but that was on Boxing Day hence he is fresh up for this suitable mission. Spitfire is an on-pacer with handy form.

Bet: Inuwashi to win, quinella 1,4

RACE 4

Fiordland has accepted for a race at Rosehill on Saturday. Barrier 1 around Canterbury and James McDonald around anywhere are two pretty compelling factors weighing in Fiordland’s favour. Clear Blonde was rewarded for some terrible luck in her first two runs back this preparation with a gritty and determined win at Nowra on January 9. Maccomo was costly in defeat here last Friday night. Drew 3 then but has the outside gate this time. Metro Legend likewise emptied some wallets in the Midway but can atone - maybe.

Bet: Fiordland to win

RACE 5

Fortified has won from 1300m up to 2210m inside just 14 starts; he has won four and placed in four races so overall, that is quite a commendable record. The other pertinent points to make are that the son of Ocean Park has won second-up and the form has stood up from that Marnix race Fortified went around in on January 12. Just Business probably runs (and runs well) at Rosehill on Saturday. You can never rule out Rules Don’t Apply (no pun intended). That said, he is doing more looming than actually winning these days. Just A Jedi has a great draw.

Bet: Fortified to win

Fortified looks a good chance for Chris Waller and James McDonald in Race 5.

RACE 6

Island Bay Boy is an X-Factor horse A big, strong son of All Too Hard, he lined-up in the Kosciuszko. He was very unlucky in the big race; it was such a shame. Barrier 4, small field, right trip, suggesting the venue suits. Texcel hasn’t done much wrong in his time. Trials have been first-class, one of them was behind Darjaan which is bankable ‘form’ for this. The ‘best’ Black Duke would win most races, this included. Finally Realise is a major player.

Bet: Island Bay Boy to win

RACE 7

Who knows where Way To The Stars is at the end of the autumn, or the winter - he is one of Sydney’s genuinely untapped three-year-olds. Both wins were textbook ‘raw ability’ Clearly, he is not the finished article yet but he is such a good colt that you wouldn’t say ‘no’ to him in anything. That said, Riva Del Sol looks handy herself. She’s won 3 from 3 and seems to have a lot of ticker. She will need it from that draw in this line-up. Able Willie and Sky Command are the proven horses in better races.

Bet: Way To The Stars to win

RACE 8

Accelerato was unlucky first-up here on January 7 but didn’t appear to have any excuses for his seventh of eight here again 14-days later. His stats are still quite compelling. Consider this; the son of Fastnet Rock has raced at Canterbury nine times for five placings. He has run six times at the track/distance and placed at half of them. Secretively has drawn well and has the ‘Canterbury pattern’. Bergen has a troublesome draw but he sure did trial well the other morning. Ditto the ‘trial bit’ for Ashim but he himself has drawn well (if he comes).

Bet: Accelerato each-way

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury