Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis for Warwick Farm

Racing editor Ray Thomas is sticking solid with a promising stayer who will be shooting for back-to-back wins with Rachel King aboard at Warwick Farm.

Hugh Bowman has a strong book of rides at Warwick Farm. Picture: Getty Images

Racing editor Ray Thomas runs the rule over the seven-race card at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

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BEST BET

Race 3, No.2: HARPO MARX

Showed staying potential with a dominant win at Wyong last start. He gets out to 2400m, which is no issue for him, and is set to exact revenge over Kutayha after a recent narrow loss.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.4: OVERLORD

Overlord is a stakes placegetter but remains a maiden after six starts. Talented but enigmatic three-year-old who has been gelded since he last raced and showed good application winning a barrier trial recently. Bred to enjoy wet tracks and set for a winning comeback.

VALUE

Race 6, No.7: INVINCIBLE LAD

Deserves a change of luck after a hat-trick of second placings, including his fast-finishing effort on the Kensington track behind Mossman last start. Handles rain-affected tracks and looks hard to beat.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1, 2, 4, 6

Race 5: 1, 2, 5, 7, 10

Race 6: 3, 7

Race 7: 1, 3, 6, 8

Hugh Bowman could start the day on a winning note with Mura Mura. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

HUGH BOWMAN has a strong book of six rides, including Mura Mura (race 1), Overlord (race 2) and Kawaikini (race 5).

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

CHRIS WALLER has good chances in all seven races, including Ranch Hand (race 1), Overlord (race 2) and Kutayha (race 3).

INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Mura Mura has raced well in her two starts, finishing third in the Kirkham Plate and Golden Gift, the latter a game effort after leading early. Significantly, she was ridden off speed in her recent Randwick trial and impressed when accelerating brilliantly to win the heat by a comfortable margin. Mura Mura is also entered for Saturday but, if the stable runs her at the midweeks, she is clearly the one to beat. Ranch Hand is a Fastnet Rock colt coming off a good trial when second at Rosehill last week. Drawn right alongside Mura Mura and will be eyeballing the filly all the way. Silver Thorn is a flashy grey by Capitalist who won a recent Kembla Grange trial with ease. Flying Tyrol trialled the same day as Silver Thorn and ran faster time winning his heat.

BET: MURA MURA to win, follow market moves for RANCH HAND.

RACE 2

Overlord has been gelded since he was last in work and showed in his recent Rosehill trial win that he might be ready to realise his potential. He’s been placed in four of his six starts and it’s worth noting his dam, Red Tracer, was an outstanding mudlark. Overlord is drawn to get the run of the race. Captivare has been runner-up in successive city midweeks and rates highly. Adelaide’s Light tried hard on debut at Newcastle and should take improvement from that run. Vanderland has shown promise in his three-start career and Team Hawkes is satisfied the gelding is ready for 1300m at his new stable debut.

BET: OVERLORD to win, box trifecta 1, 3, 4, 8.

RACE 3

Harpo Marx made a wide, sustained run from the 600m, sweeping around the field from near last and powering clear to win by more than three lengths at Wyong over 2100m. Emerging stayer, the 2400m will suit and although this is a stronger race, he looks hard to beat again. Kutayha defeated Harpo Marx at Canterbury recently but meets that horse 1.5kg worse at the weights this time. Kutayha is on trial at 2400m. Notabadidea ran well when beaten less than four lengths behind Edison at Randwick over 1400m last Saturday and on the quick back-up he gets back out to his right distance range. Notabadidea enjoys rain-affected conditions. Satin Rain is very fit but probably prefers firmer tracks.

BET: HARPO MARX to win, saver on NOTABADIDEA each way.

RACE 4

Foxborough hit the front on the turn but was run down late when a close third at Wyong over 1600m last start. She may have reached the lead too soon and was vulnerable late. Fitter for three runs from a spell, drawn to get the gun run, James McDonald has the ride and the rain-affected track won’t trouble her. Bergen finished strongly to score on the Kensington track when second-up, he should be at his peak now and races well on this track. Wairere Falls has been up a while but is holding his form and drops back to the midweeks. Atlantic King has been disappointing at his past two starts but on his best form he is right in this race.

BET: Box trifecta 1, 2, 4, 6.

Rachel King will be chasing back-to-back wins on Harpo Marx at Warwick Farm. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5

This is a deep race. I’m leaning to Shaik who had her chance to run down the race-fit Miss Dior but could not bridge the gap when they clashed at Kembla Grange. Shaik was first-up that day and might have needed the run. She meets Miss Dior 4kg better at the weights for their return clash. Miss Dior is very determined, has struck a rich vein of form and is chasing her fourth successive win. Hibiscus Lady is also racing very well and is proven on wet tracks. Front Money wasn’t beaten far when a first-up fourth (Hibiscus Lady was second) at the Kensington track and is an improver. Ready To Soar has also reeled off three wins in a row.

BET: SHAIK to win, box trifecta 1, 2, 5, 7, 10.

RACE 6

Invincible Lad gets his chance here. He’s had to settle for second placings in successive starts at Hawkesbury, Warwick Farm and Kensington. He’s very fit and handles rain-affected tracks. This could be a quinella for sire I Am Invincible and Team Snowden with Hurt Money set to make a race of it with stablemate Invincible Lad. Promising colt Hurt Money won his maiden at Hawkesbury when resuming, recording swift sectionals. Exceltic does race well fresh and he was unlucky not to have beaten Invincible Lad when resuming on a heavy track at Gosford last campaign. Blazing is resuming off a long spell and the first city runner for Sydney’s newest training partnership, the husband and wife team of Lee and Cherie Curtis. He does enjoy soft tracks and is a chance at big odds.

BET: INVINCIBLE LAD to win, quinella 7, 12.

RACE 7

Strawb has been costly in two runs this campaign but she is worth another chance. She made a wide run at Warwick Farm last start but Ulysses took the shorter route home to beat her. They meet again in the closer but Strawb might have the advantage this time given she can handle soft-heavy tracks. Ulysses is drawn to get the right run and will go close if he gets through the track conditions. Rammstein is racing in very good form and is well placed back at the midweeks. Kosciuszko races up on speed and can run a race at each way odds.

BET: STRAWB to win, box trifecta 1, 3, 6, 8.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis for Warwick Farm