Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis for Warrnambool races

National racing editor Stephen Brassel hopes to end the year on a winning note with a Matt Williams-trained runner in the last at Warrnambool. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS

Respected form analyst Stephen Brassel looks at the eight-race card at Warrnambool on Thursday.

BEST BET

ST JOEYS (Race 8, No.6 — $5.50)

Back to the scene where he broke his maiden at Warrnambool with an emphatic win when resuming two preparations back. Placed at Flemington and Caulfield after that then lost his way but suited here to return a winner.

NEXT BEST

BLACK SAIL (Race 7, No.1 — $3.80)

Drawn wide but top trainer/jockey combination and clearly the class horse of the race as an 84-rater. Won at Geelong three runs back then close third in Kilmore Cup and run was good enough at Flemington last time.

SETANTA (Race 3, No.8 — $4.80)

Again getting on the John Allen/Ciaron Maher and David Eustace combination and with that plenty of respect. Placed at Canterbury on debut and two runs since, while moderate, would still be good enough for this.

SWIFT SURE (Race 1, No.6 — $4.40)

Looks a two-horse race and happy to play the longer priced of the two. Swift Sure has finished second at his only two starts, both at Warrnambool. Step up to 1700m suits.

BEST VALUE

HUMZZ (Race 5, No.1 — $6.50)

Won three of previous six and three placings before spelling and resumed in tougher race at Flemington when midfield last time out. Won second-up previous preparation and capable of repeating.

Trainer Matthew Williams will saddle-up St Joeys in the last at Warrnambool. Picture: AAP

THE JOCKEY

JOHN ALLEN

Was the jockey to follow at Werribee on Wednesday and backing up again at The ‘Bool. Kicks off with odds-on favourite and strong chances throughout especially for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. RED SANTA (Race 1, No.5 — $1.65), BREAKING LOOSE (Race 2, No.2 — $7), SETANTA (Race 3, No.8 — $4.80), COURT DEEP (doubtful) (Race 6, No.2 — $3.70), BLACK SAIL (Race 7, No.1 — $4), AEECEE DIAMOND (Race 8, No.10 — $12).

THE WEEK AHEAD

Friday – Flemington, Kyneton (Non TAB), Burrumbeet, Mornington, Merton (Picnic), Saturday – Caulfield, Terang, Woolamai (Picnic), Sunday – Benalla, Sale, Tuesday – Stony Creek , Wednesday - Sandown Lakeside, Seymour.