PUNTERS’ GUIDE: Every Geelong Cup runner rated
This year’s Geelong Cup looms as one of the highest quality races in its long and proud history. Geelong Advertiser chief racing writer RYAN REYNOLDS assesses every runner and why they can and can’t win.
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This year’s Geelong Cup looms as one of the highest quality races in its long and proud history. Geelong Advertiser chief racing writer RYAN REYNOLDS has put the microscope over every horse.
1. MUNTAHAA ($81)
WHY IT CAN WIN: If there is a strong tempo in the race then hopefully Muntahaa can settle into his rhythm in the run, which is crucial for a horse like him. If he doesn’t pull early and finds his stride then he might finally show his class. His talent is good enough to win the Geelong Cup.
WHY IT CAN’T: Because he just does so much wrong in his races. He was ridden poorly last start, but we have seen in basically all of his Australian runs that he just doesn’t settle. If he does that again then he will tail off.
2. NEUFBOSC ($23)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Five goes at the 2400m for two wins, two seconds and a third That’s a pretty good record. The French horse will be fully fit for this and should get a good run from barrier six. Disregard his last start where he had no luck in the run. His performances before that at unsuitable distances have him in contention.
WHY IT CAN’T: This race wasn’t at the front of mind for connections, who had planned to run the horse in Sydney last Saturday. They then floated the horse back to Victoria when they became next in line for a Caulfield Cup run. Can he perform after so much uncertainty with his planning.
3. PRINCE OF ARRAN ($3.40)
WHY IT CAN WIN: The race favourite was huge in the Herbert Power last start, storming to the line to narrowly miss a win that would have got him into the Caulfield Cup. He will be better for that first-up run and should be peaking now. Victory could be enough to
get him into the Melbourne Cup.
WHY IT CAN’T: Barrier 11 is hardly ideal for a horse that doesn’t always start the fastest. Jockey Michael Walker will have some work to do from there. And then there’s the heat. How will a European handle running on a 27 degree day?
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4. RED CARDINAL ($17)
WHY IT CAN WIN: The form from the Newcastle Cup (2300m), where he ran fifth, has stacked up with the race’s winner Hush Writer winning again at Randwick on Saturday. He also gets Kerrin McEvoy on board, which will help offset a tricky barrier 10.
WHY IT CAN’T: The horse hasn’t really fired over a staying trip since arriving in Australia and you wouldn’t think a Newcastle Cup is the right form line for this. Better on wet tracks too.
5. DAL HARRAILD ($12)
WHY IT CAN WIN: You can forgive his run in the Bart Cummings last start where he got back further than he wanted after missing the kick. Before that he has performed well at Group 3 and Group 2 level and his run two starts back behind Mosh Music over 1700m was nice. Drawn nicely in barrier five and could be peaking for this.
WHY IT CAN’T: Even though he has no luck, he was still beaten by 4.25 lengths by Surprise Baby in the Bart Cummings. Is runner-up finishes in the Bendigo Cup and Sandown Classic good enough to win this? Doubtful.
6. GREY LION ($21)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Grey Lion absolutely loves the Geelong Cup, having run second and fourth in two other cracks in this race. The horse was also a total forgive run at his last start where he didn’t handle the soft at Group 1 level. Drops back in grade, should get a lovely run from barrier two and has Craig Williams on board. Williams is a jockey that knows how to win a Geelong Cup.
WHY IT CAN’T: The horse has had two cracks at the Geelong Cup and is yet to win the race. He now comes as an eight-year-old and you’d argue that he’s probably in the twilight of his career.
7. RED GALILEO ($7)
WHY IT CAN WIN: The Godolphin Blue Army must be respected in any staying race they pop up in with their European gallopers. They’ve finally nailed the right formula after years of trying. Pat Cosgrave should give the galloper a lovely ride from barrier four.
WHY IT CAN’T: The nine-year-old’s record says it all. He’s had 41 starts for three wins. He’s had 16 cracks at the 2400m and is yet to win. Hard to get excited by those numbers.
8. STEEL PRINCE ($4.80)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Because the horse is absolute quality. Has thrived since arriving in Australia and his two runs back have been superb since qualifying for the Melbourne Cup in May. Damien Oliver on board also helps.
WHY IT CAN’T: The horse played up in the barrier and was a late scratching at what should have been his last start. Because of that this race has always been a back up plan. Also, with the horse already qualified for the Melbourne Cup, connections wouldn’t really want to get a weight penalty for winning the Geelong Cup. So that has you wondering if he’s just here for a final tune-up before his grand final.
9. HAKY ($26)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Will be the natural speed in the race given he is a natural on-pacer and a genuine stayer. Forgive his last start where Linda Meech got the tempo all wrong. She will have learnt a lot from that, so expect her to bowl along in front from barrier three. Can they catch him if he leads by 10 lengths at the 600m?
WHY IT CAN’T: He was beaten by almost 12 lengths in the same race Prince of Arran finished second in. It would take quite a bit for him to be able to reverse that sort of result.
10. TRUE SELF ($5)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Comes to Australia on the back of some very nice staying performances in Europe. She also loves the 2400m trip, having not missed the top two in both attempts at the distance. Should get a lovely run from barrier one.
WHY IT CAN’T: Does she have the turn of foot brilliant enough to match it with Prince of Arran and Steel Prince? We haven’t seen her yet in Australia so there are a lot of unknowns, especially when taking the $5 quote.
11. SUPERNOVA ($7.50)
WHY IT CAN WIN: Second to Surprise Baby in the Bart Cummings is a good form reference for this considering that horse is well in Melbourne Cup contention. The second horse, in that race, Wolfe, then won its next start and followed that up with a decent performance in the Caulfield Cup. Beaten five lengths by finch the start before over 2000m isn’t bad either.
WHY IT CAN’T: Has clearly the worst rating of all the horses in the field, so might have to run to a career-best to win this race. He also drops back from 2520m to 2400m today, so that might also be a concern too.
RYAN REYNOLDS’ TIPS:
1. Prince Of Arran
2. Steel Prince
3. Supernova
1. Muntahaa
Originally published as PUNTERS’ GUIDE: Every Geelong Cup runner rated