Oaks Day: Best bets, analysis, quadrella, betting strategy
Leading form analyst Michael Manley gives you four peach $50 betting strategies, a handful of best bets, throws in a quaddie and then runs the rule over the big Oaks players. What more do you need for Oaks Day?
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Flemington trainer Danny O’Brien can claim his second Group 1 win for the week in Thursday’s VRC Oaks with Miami Bound.
The three-year-old filly became favourite for the race after her win in the Wakeful Stakes firming in from $13 to $3.70 after the win.
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The Wakeful Stakes is a great form reference for this as in the past 30 years, 12 fillies have completed the double including Aristia last year.
Miami Bound has now firmed into a $3.60 favourite to win the VRC Oaks.
THE FACTORS
TRACK: Soft 5
RAIL: Out 6m (Out 3m on Tuesday)
WEATHER: 18C Showers
BEST BET
IMPI (R1, No. 8)
Suffered his first defeat at his fourth start last time at Geelong but lost no admirers when a close-up third behind Harbour Views and O’Tauto last start who are the favourites in the Country Final later in the day. Only run on a Soft track he won by six lengths.
NEXT BEST
HARBOUR VIEWS (R6, No. 1)
He’s an exciting prospect who is out to take his record to six wins from six starts. Sat wide and still proved too strong last start for O’TAUTO (4) at Geelong last start over 1500m.
CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (R9, No. 2)
There’s some exciting gallopers in action and she’s another one. At her last start she easily defeated subsequent Group 1 winner of the Manikato Stakes, Loving Gaby which reads well for this.
BEST EACH-WAY
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (R4, No. 16)
Promising filly who hasn’t started for six weeks since she ran into trouble when she finished seventh in the Jim Moloney Stakes. She was held up for a run but when she got clear galloping room she rocketed home in 11.51 seconds for the last 200m which was the third fastest for the meeting to finish seventh behind I Am Eloquent.
CRYSTAL DREAM (R5, No. 2)
Ruined his chances last start on jumping away at Caulfield last start at Group 2 level when he finished sixth beaten 3.3 lengths by Miss Leonidas. Likes the straight and he finished second in this race two years ago to BALL OF MUSCLE (R5, No. 1).
WORTH NOTING
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (R7, No. 10)
Last year Danny O’Brien produced Vow And Declare to win this race last year. Today O’Brien will be represented by another horse who judging by his debut win at Ballarat could also be a star. He came from well back and ran the fastest last 200m for the meeting without being pushed out.
THE TRAINER
TRENT BUSUTTIN
MAIN STAGE (R1, No. 6)
“He’s working well and he likes Flemington over 1800m. Blinkers go back on and he’s a nice chance.”
TAGALO (R2, No. 10)
“He’s a very nice young horse with plenty of untapped potential. He’s still a bit green in training so how he handles the straight is a question mark.”
MR TIPLA (R3, No. 2)
“Nice run first-up at Geelong with an apprentice rider on. A senior rider goes on with Tommy Bery and he needs a strong rider. He’s working well and we think he’ll run a big race.”
$50 FOUR PLAY
RACE 1
TWITTER TROPHY (1700M)
$50 WIN IMPI (No. 8) AT $1.60
No fancy odds but Impi should be able to get punters off to a great start. He’ll find this easier than his last start thirdbehind Harbour Views at Geelong last start.
RACE 6
MELBOURNE CUP CARNIVAL COUNTRY FINAL (1600M)
$50 WIN HARBOUR VIEWS (NO. 1) AT $2.30
He’s undefeated in five starts and a big race awaits him in the future. Despite his big weight he should be able to make itsix in a row.
RACE 8
KENNEDY OAKS (2500M)
$50 WIN MIAMI BOUND (NO. 1) AT $3.60
Wakeful Stakes winners have a great record in this race. Also she brings together the combination of Danny O’Brien and DamienOliver who have both had memorable weeks.
RACE 9
RED ROSES STAKES (1200M)
$50 WIN CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (NO. 2) AT $1.90
She’s going to start a short priced favourite and if other odds on shots have won she’ll be at very short odds. Looks thewinner though based on her last start defeat of subsequent Group 1 winner Loving Gaby at her last start.
THE QUADDIE
RACE 6: LEG 1
Not many chances. HARBOUR VIEWS (1) is undefeated and is destined for better races. STAR MISSILE (3) is also above average and he’s the main danger.
1,3
RACE 7: LEG 2: 1,2,3,4,7,8,10
This is the leg to go searching for value. RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) is the one to beat but this is the leg to go wide in.
RACE 8: LEG 3: 1,2,3,4
The winner should come from the top four fillies who are racing well.
RACE 9: LEG 4: 2,3,10,12
CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (2) one out is an option. Add TARAAYEF (3), NICCOVI (10) and SISSTAR (12).
LEG 1: 1,3
LEG 2: 1,2,3,4,7,8,10
LEG 3: 1,2,3,4
LEG 4: 2,3,10,12
$100 flexi for 52.08%
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KENNEDY OAKS
BEST CHANCES
MIAMI BOUND $3.60
Her dam Arapaho Miss won this race and she’s on track to emulate her and continue a magical week for Danny O’Brien and also her jockey Damien Oliver. She proved too strong in the Wakeful Stakes which is a great form reference for this.
MOONLIGHT MAID $4
Swooped home to win the Edward Manifold Stakes here two starts ago before finishing second to subsequent Victoria Derby placegetter Soul Patch at The Valley last start which looks a strong form reference.
VEGAS JEWEL $4
Lightly raced filly getting better with every start. She took ground off Miami Bound in the closing stages to finish second in the Wakeful Stakes. She’s also bred on a similar cross to Winx and is by Melbourne Cup winner Shocking.
GAMAY $6
Outstayed her rivals to win the Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield last start defeating Vegas Jewel after finishing second in the Oaks Trial over 1800m. two years ago Pinot by Pierro won both of those races before winning this race.
BEAUTY BOLT $14
It’s an unorthodox campaign with her last two starts over 1600m but she’s ran on well each time. Two starts ago she finished an unlucky fifth behind Moonlight Maid in the Edward Manifold Stakes and then last start she came from last to finish fifth at The Valley.
THE ROUGHIES
Sydney trainer John Sargent has a good record in this race winning in 2013 with Kirramosa and then second in 2014 with Thunder Lady. Sargent has two starters this which are FOXBOROUGH ($26) who worked home well to finish fifth although well beaten in the Wakeful Stakes. His other runner is last start Canberra 2000m winner STICK ‘EM UP ($34).
THE SPEED
APICIUS should lead from GAMAY and OCEAN MISS. AMAZING PEACE is also likely to go forward. Damien Oliver should take up a forward position with MIAMI BOUND.
MICHAEL MANLEY’S SELECTIONS
1. MIAMI BOUND
2. Moonlight Maid
3. Vegas Jewel
4. Gamay
THE STRATEGY
Back Miami Bound to win with a saver on Moonlight Maid.
HISTORY SAYS
Wakeful Stakes winners have a great record in this race. From the last 30 Oaks, 12 Wakeful winners completed the double, five finished second and three ran third.