Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

THE EARLY OIL: MOONEE VALLEY

SPRING CARNIVAL: THOSE DATES THAT MATTER

R1 (12.05pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Lifesaver. He was pretty impressive first-up when beating all bar Another Sin. They gapped the rest and he gets a bit of weight relief and should be fitter. Red Knot has trialled well for this and he will get back but should be hitting the line hard with Hugh Bowman on. The only concern is whether 1100m is too short. Mossman Gorge won well first-up over 1000m and had form around Gunnison last prep. Nic’s Vendetta should be competitive off a freshen, while Music Magic, Levee Bank and even Menneke Belle have multiple claims.

DID YOU KNOW: Red Knot cost $1 million as a yearling.

SPEED MAP: Good speed with Lifesaver and Undaoaf pushing forward and Mossman Gorge and potentially Nic’s Vendetta going on with it from out wide.

BETTING STRATEGY: LIFESAVER to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Lifesaver $2.50-$1.95 ($2,000 @ $2.50, $400 @ $2.50)

Lifesaver is back for another crack at a TAB Highway at Rosehill on Saturday.

R2 (12.45pm): PRO IT HCP (1500m)

OVERVIEW: Awoke has to lump the 61kg but she is down in grade and the race she comes through last start has produced three subsequent winners. She tuned up for this with a recent trial win which should negate the 28 days between runs. Chatuchak will get on-pace favours if they go forward and the win was better than it looked last start at the provincials, while Mariquita will run on late and the smaller field means she should only be four lengths off them on the turn. Elouera and Prada Miss also have claims.

DID YOU KNOW: Awoke actually meets Elouera 3kg better off at the weights for beating it home last start.

SPEED MAP: No speed on paper. Chatuchak, Cash Spinner, Eva Jean and Awoke might all press on but there is no leader unless Gretna backs up. Speed looks moderate at best.

BETTING STRATEGY: AWOKE to win.

R3 (1.20pm): CHARITY FOUNDATION HCP (1100m)

OVERVIEW: Looks a race in three between Marsupial, Tango Rain and Improvement. Tango Rain should lead from the inside and he was three-deep the trip first-up for a year when third at Randwick earlier this month. Marsupial has been trialling really well and he defeated subsequent Golden Slipper runner-up Frolic by 2¼ lengths first-up last preparation. He looks a horse on the rise. Improvement trialled well but will need to do a little bit of work to get across early and the last 100m is the concern for me. Pumpkin Pie and Skylight Glow will run on late.

DID YOU KNOW: Lady Jivago (689 days), Cosmopol (619) and Skylight Glow (455) all haven’t won for more than a year.

SPEED MAP: Tango Rain should lead from the inside with Marsupial and Improvement coming across. Speed looks genuine.

BETTING STRATEGY: MARSUPIAL to win. Boxed quinella 2,3,11.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Marsupial $5-$4 ($250 @ $5, $1,000 @ $4.60)

R4 (1.55pm): PACIFIC BOATING HCP (2000m)

OVERVIEW: Import Alward is a progressive stayer and he had no luck first-up, was OK second-up and then gave his rivals a belting at Flemington last start. I’m not sure what he beat but he only got out late and showed a good turn of foot. Vaucluse Bay had a genuine excuse last start and if you take out that run he would probably be favourite here. His form prior was outstanding and he has trialled well since last start. Chatelard is unbeaten in three runs but this is a new level, while Miss Dubois has rough claims.

DID YOU KNOW: Vaucluse Bay pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia last start.

SPEED MAP: Solid speed here with Nat King Cu, Hunter Jack and Eureka Street all pushing forward.

BETTING STRATEGY: ALWARD to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Alward $3.60-$2.60 ($350 @ $2.80, $260 @ $2.60)

Imported stayer Alward heads to Sydney after scoring an impressive win at Flemington last start.

R5 (2.30pm): PREMIER’S CUP (1900m)

OVERVIEW: Destiny’s Kiss is eight weeks between runs but he was flying before that little break. Yes, he prefers it wet but he gets a little bit of weight relief and he gets the services of Hugh Bowman here. Classic Uniform was no match for Arbeitsam the other day but he beat the rest easily enough. He gets a senior jockey back aboard. Broadside has been freshened after not running out two miles last start and he won a recent trial. He just looks a little short in the market for mine.

DID YOU KNOW: Loyalty Man gets the blinkers back on here.

SPEED MAP: Solid tempo here with Broadside and Classic Uniform both likely to roll along. All horses should get their chance.

BETTING STRATEGY: DESTINY’S KISS each-way.

R6 (3.05pm): MING DYNASTY QUALITY (1400m)

OVERVIEW: I’ve got to give Addictive Nature another chance and I just wonder if he didn’t really like the wet Randwick track last start. He maps well and should get every chance. Dracarys franked the form around Assimilate when winning last start and Assimilate will be hitting the line hard, while Runaway should push forward and lead and he will be hard to run down. I just wish it was a bit longer for him. Mahalangur was very impressive at Newcastle on debut and can go on with it.

DID YOU KNOW: Thy Kingdom Come has been $101-$51 with the TAB.

SPEED MAP: Expect Runaway to lead with Sambro, Hypnotist and Animalia handy. Addictive Nature might just park behind the leaders and they rode him with a sit in a recent trial.

BETTING STRATEGY: ADDICTIVE NATURE to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Assimilate $7-$6 ($1,000 @ $6), Addictive Nature $3.50-$3.90, Animalia $5-$4.80, Runaway $9-$6

R7 (3.45pm): SAN DOMENICO STAKES (1100m)

OVERVIEW: I loved the way Pariah has been trialling and he always looked like he would be better next time in. He will sit back off a hot tempo and be hard to beat. Condor Heroes looks the danger and he ran into a head wind on debut. He came back and won a maiden and then missed the start in the Kindergarten Stakes before rattling home into second behind Property. I thought they were the only two real chances. Taking Aim will run on well and looks next best.

DID YOU KNOW: Three of the past five San Domenico winners have jumped from the outside gate (Pariah has drawn the outside).

SPEED MAP: Strong tempo with Speed Street and Condor Heroes wanting the front and Madeenaty and Another Sin kicking up. They should hike along.

BETTING STRATEGY: PARIAH to win. Quinella 1,5.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Pariah $2.80-$2.90-$2.80 ($200 @ $2.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $400 @ $2.90), Another Sin $51-$26, Madeenaty $11-$9.50, Jorda $8-$7.50

Pariah will be hard to beat when he resumes in the San Domenico Stakes.

R8 (4.25pm): LINDT HCP (1500m)

OVERVIEW: I’m happy to give Francesco one more chance. He just got dragged back through the field last start and had too much to do from the back on a day where it was hard to make ground. Special Missile is just a winner and I can’t knock him at all. He just has the apprentice on here and might not find the front. The Pharoah will be hard to run down but he just needs to run out 1500m now, and that’s the query. Dorf Star and Mapmaker will run on.

DID YOU KNOW: Hogmanay is part-owned by Aussie cricket captain Steve Smith.

SPEED MAP: The Pharoah, Virgilio and Special Missile look the three on-pace runners and the speed should be genuine.

BETTING STRATEGY: FRANCESCO to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Special Missile $4.60-$4, Mapmaker $15-$13

R9 (5.05pm): FIIG HCP (1200m)

OVERVIEW: Tough race to finish the day. No Doubt had improvement to come first-up and while he might need longer now, he seems over the odds. Selita should find the front and she could be hard to run down with no weight on her back. Bonny O’Reilly is a winner despite the big weight, while No Doubt and Denpurr went super first-up and both have each-way claims. Sir Bacchus has the blinkers on and he has had a little freshen up, while Supreme Effort isn’t hopeless first-up.

DID YOU KNOW: Selita meets Bonny O’Reilly 8kg better off at the weights for being beaten 1¼ lengths by that horse at Doomben on June 3.

SPEED MAP: Selita and Be Like Dad should take it up with Got Unders and Bonny O’Reilly behind them.

BETTING STRATEGY: NO DOUBT each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Denpurr $15-$11 ($300 @ $15, 300 @ $11, $200 @ $11 TWICE), Selita $11-$6.50 ($500 e/w @ $11/$3.10, $250 @ $9, $250 @ $8, $200 @ $6.50)

TURF TALK

Ray Thomas and Brad Davidson discuss their best bets for the weekend.

BD: It’s the last weekend of winter, Ray, but it sure feels like spring is here already. All eyes are on Pariah in the San Domenico Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday.

RT: Spring? My Sir Walter still has brown patches — but I’ve poured the fertiliser on this week. Sorry, back to the real turf action — I’m also keen on Pariah and I think he could be a genuine star this season.

BD: I thought Sir Walter, the retired racehorse, was making a comeback at Rosehill for a second! If you need some help with your lawn, why don’t you ask Lindsay Murphy. It does look Pariah’s race for the taking despite the wide draw and they should hike along and give him his chance late.

RT: I am wary of Condor Heroes and Chauffeur, I think they both trialled really well and I do know the Godolphin camp have always had a big opinion of Jorda.

BD: It will be interesting to see how she comes back after winning the Gimcrack last spring. The Ming Dynasty is a good race. I’m prepared to give Addictive Nature another chance and I’m just taking the punt that he didn’t handle the wet Randwick surface last start.

RT: I was taken by Mahalangur’s debut win at Newcastle, I loved the way he attacked the line. I know it’s a massive jump in class but he does look very promising. What do you make of Astoria?

BD: He did bump into a few heavy tracks last start but I just had a few ahead of him on Saturday. My best roughie comes up in the Premier’s Cup. I know Destiny’s Kiss prefers a wet track but he has a class edge on this lot and I think the $15 is definitely over the odds.

RT: Wouldn’t you love to own Destiny’s Kiss? He just comes up every preparation and runs good races and with 59kg he is well in on Saturday. I just had a slight leaning to King Viv with the weight pull.

BD: I struggled to decide between Lifesaver (Race 1) and Alward (Race 4) as my best bet at Rosehill. I went with Alward and he looks a promising stayer who could well end up in a Metropolitan if he continues to progress. Are you with me?

RT: Alward was very good at Flemington last start, he put a margin on them and ran good sectional times. He looks to be going places. You went Alward as your best, I’ll go Lifesaver. How does that sound?

BD: This racing caper sounds easy. We will find out on Saturday afternoon.

Originally published as Race watch: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and tips for Rosehill Gardens