Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2016: Matt Stewart gives his take on The Championships’ premier race

POLL: HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart says the stars are aligning for Damien Oliver’s mount in the $4 million Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

Turnbull Stakes Day Races at Flemington, Turnbull Stakes 2000m, (L) Kerrin McEvoy on board Lucia Valentina makes a mover at the 100m mark on Lidari and Brambles. 4th October 2014. Picture : Colleen Petch.

HERALD Sun racing writer Matt Stewart says the stars are aligning for Damien Oliver’s mount in the $4 million Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

$4m QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES (2000m)

RANDWICK, RACE 9, SATURDAY 4.35pm

1 CRITERION 2 D Hayes & T Dabernig T Berry 59kg $6

2 PREFERMENT 5 C Waller H Bowman 59kg $5

3 MONGOLIAN KHAN 9 M Baker & A Forsman O Bosson 59kg $35

4 OUR IVANHOWE 4 L & A Freedman B Prebble 59kg SCRATCHED

5 THE UNITED STATES 8 R Hickmott K McEvoy 59kg $4.60

6 HAPPY TRAILS 3 P Beshara D Dunn 59kg $51

7 IT’S SOMEWHAT 11 J O’Shea S Clipperton 59kg $15

8 DIBAYANI (13 D Hayes & T Dabernig N Hall 59kg $35

9 HAPPY CLAPPER 1 P Webster B Avdulla 59kg $13

10 HAURAKI 14 J O’Shea J McDonald 59kg $8

11 LEEBAZ 10 Team Hawkes C Reith 59kg $71

12 LUCIA VALENTINA 12 K Lees D Oliver 57kg $7

13 RISING ROMANCE 7 D Hayes & T Dabernig D Lane 57kg $21

14 FENWAY 16 L & S Hope B Shinn 57kg $51

15e AWESOME ROCK 15 L & T Corstens S Baster 59kg $41

16e WEARY 6 C Waller C Williams 59kg $101

Odds: TAB

THE FACTORS

Track: Soft 7

Rail: 6m from 1600m-winning post, 3m remainder.

Weather: Partly cloudy, light wind. 25C.

THE SPEED

No mad leader but a big handful will push forward, including LEEBAZ, AWESOME ROCK, FENWAY, DIBAYANI and IT’S SOMEWHAT. Close up, MONGOLIAN KHAN, OUR IVANHOWE.

Criterion and Happy Trails fight out last year’s Caulfield Stakes. Picture: Colleen Petch

THE SKINNY

Matt Stewart analyses the field

CRITERION

Weather Gods have been kind, as they were last year when he scooted through the mud to win. He’s either going “just OK” or building to a peak run.

PREFERMENT

Australian Cup protest thief who ground home to beat two stablemates in BMW. Softish track OK. He’s no superstar but none of these are. Probably rightful favourite.

MONGOLIAN KHAN

Nearly died from colic after spring and may not have really recovered. Was OK two starts back then faded badly last start after over-racing a tad. Wasn’t he supposed to be retired?

OUR IVANHOE

Scratched

THE UNITED STATES

Has either improved lengths from spring or these WFA rivals are a pretty average lot. Beat subsequent Melbourne Cup winner last time he was in this distance range.

HAPPY TRAILS

Grand old horse but has become a bit of a tourist in these big Group 1s. Will float along with the pack and run midfield.

IT’S SOMEWHAT

Improving and untapped and taking on a good, but not great, field of WFA horses. Could he be Godolphin’s surprise packet big winner this season?

DIBAYANI

Really made Winx stretch (for three strides) two starts back then blew like a hurricane in the betting ring last time and ran accordingly. Strike rate poor but might rally fourth-up.

HAPPY CLAPPER

Ticks an important box — Winx form — but yet to win beyond a mile and at WFA. If he runs it out, some chance.

HAURAKI

Bit of a loom and fade horse. Classic example last start when had The United States covered, then faded. Might be about to peak and stop fading.

LEEBAZ

Would be the ultimate Championships insult if old Baz won the richest race.

LUCIA VALENTINA

Interesting wildcard. Delicate mare who races well fresh and ran a blinder in the Coolmore. This is her pet trip, likes soft. Hmmm.

RISING ROMANCE

Has become a bit of a big race socialiser, just like Happy Trails.

FENWAY

Bit plain at the Valley when faded late. Very good mare on her day and OK on softish ground. Place.

AWESOME ROCK

Australian Cup hero (for a few minutes). Rapidly improving X-factor horse. Be lovely if he got a run and brained Preferment.

WEARY

Lost all form. Weary.

Lucia Valentina races well fresh and ran a blinder in the Coolmore. Picture: Colleen Petch

MATT STEWART SELECTS

1st LUCIA VALENTINA

2nd Awesome Rock

3rd Hauraki

4th Preferment

HISTORY

First run in 1954 and won by Blue Ocean.

The legendary Tulloch won the race three times — in 1958, 1960 and 1961.

Other winners include: Gay Icarus (1971), Ming Dynasty (1978), Rough Habit (1992), Veandercross (1993), Jeune (1995), Doriemus (1996), Might And Power (1998), Lonhro (2003), Grand Armee (2004-05), It’s A Dundeel (2014) and Criterion (2015).

The Queen Elizabeth has become as famous for two defeats as for its winners. In 1997 Intergaze spoiled the farewell party of champion Octagonal and seven years later Grand Armee did the same to Octagonal’s most famous son, Lonhro.

Intergaze’s defeat of Octagonal was the last time a three-year-old won the race.

TALKING POINTS

The race has been thrown wide open after Winx’s defection, leaving Ranvet Stakes winner The United States shading Preferment for favouritism.

Criterion will bow out of racing after this year’s edition to stand at stud in the NSW Hunter Valley. The entire is one of three runners for David Hayes and Tom Dabernig with Rising Romance and Dibayani also representing Lindsay Park.

Godolphin will have It’s Somewhat and Hauraki in the race. Stable jockey James McDonald has gone with Hauraki as his ride.

Sydney’s leading trainer Chris Waller has won the race twice, both times with northern hemisphere-bred stayers in My Kingdom Of Fife (2011) and Reliable Man (2013). New Zealand-bred Preferment represents the stable

KEY COMMENTS

“Dibayani and Criterion both like the wet and Rising Romance had no luck last start. But last year’s winner (Criterion) is hard to go past” — David Hayes on his three runners

“His two runs at weight-for-age have been good and he could go to the Queen Elizabeth and not be out of place” — co-trainer Wayne Webster on Happy Clapper

“Everything he’s done since he ran at Rosehill (when second to The United States in the Ranvet) has been positive and were looking for him to run up to his best” — John O’Shea on Hauraki.

“He’s a horse who can make his own luck and he’s in the best form he’s been in since he came here” — O’Shea again, this time on import It’s Somewhat

Originally published as Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2016: Matt Stewart gives his take on The Championships’ premier race