Raceday focus: Best bets and race-by-race analysis for Caulfield, Randwick and Morphettville
Herald Sun form expert Michael Manley and his wingman, TAB’s tipping guru Nick Quinn, have pulled their resources to give you the most comprehensive punting guide going around this weekend. TIPS, BETTING STRATEGY
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Herald Sun tipster Michael Manley reckons he can pull the rabbit out of the hat when his best bet It’s Kind Of Magic resumes after a long break at Caulfield.
Manley says she is an above average filly who looks well placed in this grade and should return as a winner.
Check out what else Manley likes as he gives a detailed account of the tough nine-race program.
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BEST BET
ITS KIND OF MAGIC (R5 No 6, $3.30)
Talented filly resuming after failing in the Magic Millions Guineas in January. Impressed in a barrier trial at Bendigo and from barrier one should go close.
NEXT BEST
NATIONAL CHOICE (R1 No 1, $2.50)
An exciting prospect ran impressive fast late sectionals in first-up win at Geelong and should go as well again.
THE TRAINER
MICHAEL KENT JR (WITH MICK PRICE)
NATIONAL CHOICE (R1 No 1, $2.50)
“He won very well on debut and if he runs up to his bets he’s a good winning chance. Our best of the day.”
RIVER TWAIN (R1 No 1, $16)
“He’s a horse we’ve always liked. Should have won last start and we thought it worth having a go here. He’s a nice each-way hope.”
SANDSATION (R3 No 9, $11)
“She’s a consistent filly, was a little bit help up last start. This isn’t an overly strong race and a good barrier, a top jockey, she’s a nice each-way chance at odds.”
READY SET SAIL (R5 No 7, $12)
“At her second start she dead-heated with Flit in a Group 3. She never came on in the spring at all but we have ironed-out those issues. This is her test. We want to see her run well.”
TAVISAN (R8 No 7, $9)
“There’s been a few scratchings which helps. He was beaten in Adelaide last time by Bella Vella who won the Group 1 at Morphettville last week. He’s lovely and fresh, and if the rain comes, the wetter the better. He’ll bowl forward.”
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
BIG6
3,4,9/6/2,6,8/6,10,11/2,3,5/1,3,5,9,12
$100 flexi for 24.69%
FOUR-PLAY BETTING STRATEGY WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
RACE 1: NOEL RUNDLE HANDICAP (1200m)
$50 win NATIONAL CHOICE (1) at $2.50
Son of Redoute’s Choice who looked like a star at his debut where he swept home at Geelong from close to last running the fastest closing sectionals for the day. He could be a spring prospect.
RACE 4: JRA HANDICAP (1600m)
$25 each-way ARCTIC SHOCK(4) at $7/$2.50
Consistent mare whose two runs back from a spell have been excellent. She gets to her favourite trip third-up and will also have the benefit of a two kilogram claim for talented apprentice Jess Eaton.
RACE 5: DARREN GAUCI HANDICAP (1200m)
$50 win on ITS KIND OF MAGIC (7) at $3.40
Its Kind Of Magic has shown the potential to be a stakes horse and if that’s the case she should be able to win this. Barrier one and Damien Oliver should also be great assets.
RACE 6: OPEN HANDICAP (1600m)
$50 win on SO SI BON (2) at $3.30
Yes that’s $50 the win on So Si Bon to win a second consecutive race. The easy way out would be $50 the place on him at $1.50 but this looks his race. He loves Caulfield 1600m with his last two runs there producing a close-up sixth in the All-Star Mile and a last start win.
QUADZILLA WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
1ST LEG: RACE 6
On paper it looks SO SI BON’S (2) race but in case it’s not, you’ll need some back-up. HANG MAN (8) was beaten by a good horse in Rupture last start at Flemington. He has the talent to win this. If the track is rain-affected MASK OF TIME (6) will be hard to beat as he loves it wet and also Caulfied.
FIRST LEG: 2,6,8
SECOND LEG: RACE 7
Open race with several good chances. AUSSIE NUGGET (11) and GRINZINGER STAR (10) who both will be suited by the step up to 1800m. SHOT OF IRISH (6) loves to lead and also wet tracks.
MIRETTE (8) should be ready to improve. SENTIMENTALIST ( 5) made it two wins in a week when he held off Mr Quickie to win the VOBIS Gold Heath over 2000 last start at Caulfield.
NUDGE BAR (9) likes it wet and is racing well.
2ND LEG: 5,6,8,9,10,11
THIRD LEG: RACE 8
Difficult race with lots of chances. TAVISAN (7) loves the wet and comes right into contention if predicted rain eventuates. Also the Caulfield specialists im WILLIAM THOMAS (3) and VAINSTREAM (5). Add stablemates the in-form CORUSCATE (8) and ESPERANCE (12).
3rd leg:3,5,7,8,12
FOURTH LEG: RACE 9
You could go as wide as you like as there’s a stack of chances. Come home with five runners which are new Freedman recruit STRASBOURG (1), ABSOLUTE FLIRT (3), THE ASTROLOGIST (5) and IDIDITFORLOVE (9). Blow out chance is SOWETO HAZE (12)
4TH LEG: 1,3,5,9,12
$100 flexi 22.22 %
SKINNY QUADDIE
Take SO SI BON one out in the first leg. Follow up with AUSSIE NUGGET also one out. Leave the same quintet for each of the last two legs.
1st Leg: 2
2nd Leg: 11
3rd Leg: 3,5,8,12
4th Leg: 1,3,5,9,12
$25 flexi for 100%
MORE RACING
WEEKEND BEST BETS: SING US A SONG THE PIANO MAN
MOODY COMEBACK: REKLINDING THE CAVIAR CONNECTION
RACE 1: 11.45AM NOEL RUNDLE HANDICAP (2YO, 1200M)
NATIONAL CHOICE (1) is an exciting prospect. The son of Redoute’s Choice ran the fastest last 400m and 200m for the day when he swooped home to win his debut at Geelong coming from close to last. He had a lot up his sleeve too as Damien Oliver didn’t push him out. OUT OF ISOLATION (6) has been well backed and he looked good winning recent Cranbourne jump-out. GALACTIC FURY (2) ran well when third in the strong The Showdown finishing alongside River Night. SHOW SOME DECORUM (3) is showing talent and from inside draw will be well positioned. Won his debut at Sale and the battled on well on heavy track for third at Sandown behind Our Playboy. HIGHLY DISCREET (9) was green but won her debut impressively at Sale. AIDENSFIELD (11) ran home well to win Flemington jump-out.
SUGGESTED BET: NATIONAL CHOICE THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3 – Show Some Decorum $9.50 ($350 x $300 e/w @ $7/$2.30)
9 – Highly Discreet $16-$11 ($200 e/w @ $16/$4.20)
RACE 2: 12.120PM BILL COLLINS HANDICAP (BM78, 1400M)
HEAVENLY EMPEROR (6) races well fresh and never runs a bad race. He has form around some smart horses including Buffalo River last winter. He won a Seymour jump-out during the week. From barrier five he’ll be well placed. Hde hasn’t raced since winning at Flemington on New Year’s Day. SIKORSKY (12) ran home strongly to finish second to Jumbo Ozaki over 1400m at Caulfield at his second run back from a year and a half off. As a three-year-old he was competitive in Group races and he looks well placed in Benchmark 78 company. He was unlucky first-up at Bendigo before that behind Beautiful Flyer. Ex Kiwi SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (9) ran in both of those races and also hasn’t had things go his way. Last start over-raced early and was also checked. He worked home nicely to finish seventh behind Jumbo Ozaki. WRITE YOUR NAME (10) finished fourth this track and distance behind Jumbo Ozaki last start. Blinkers go on again. VIRAL (7) is progressing well. He finished off nicely to win at Sandown Lakeside to win a Benchmark 70 last start over 1300m. CURRAGH (1) has won four of seven first-up. LEITER (13) steps up to 1400m which could suit.
SUGGESTED BET: HEAVENLY EMPEROR EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 16 – So You Swing $15-$11 ($600 @ $11, $500 @ $11, $1,200 @ $4 PLACE)
RACE 3: 12.55PM ROD FENWICK HANDICAP (1600M, 3YO)
EXCELMAN (6) is building to a win and blinkers also go on for the first time and there should be good speed in this which should suit him. At his last start he was slowly away at Flemington before running on well to finish third behind Betcha Flying and INDEPENDENT ROAD (4). Independent Road is fourth up from a spell and should be at his peak. He’s a consistent horse. Both THE LIFELINE (1) and OASIS GIRL (3) led throughout to win ona Heavy track at Caulfield on April 4. HEYINGTON STATION (7) has finished fourth at his last three starts and hasn’t had a lot of luck. This is his first attempt at 1600m.
SUGGESTED BET: EXCELMAN EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 7 – Heyington Station $8-$7 ($300 @ $8)
RACE 4: 1.35PM JRA HANDICAP (1600M, BM84, MARES)
ARCTIC SHOCK (4) is a consistent mare and her two runs this time in have been sound with a first-up second at Bendigo to Beautiful Flyer. She followed that with a third behind Jumbo Ozaki over 1400m at Caulfield. She steps out to 1600m, a distance she has won at and also finished third to Princess Jenni at Group 3 level. SOMETHING SILVER (3) ran on well for second to Clarice Cliffs over 1400m at Caulfield last start, a race in which PURE SCOT (2) finished second in. CRYPTIC JEWEL (9) looks well in on the weights in this race. She gave away a big start after being slowly away at Flemington last start when second to Navaisha at Flemington. There should be good speed in this. In the same race SECRET SHE HAS (7) was also unlucky as she was held up for a run and was also checked in the straight. KINGS BROOK (1) was also close-up in that race.
SUGGESTED BET: ARCTIC SHOCK EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 5: 2.15PM DARREN GAUCI HANDICAP (3YO, 1200M)
IT’S KIND OF MAGIC (6) is an above average filly resuming after failing in the Magic Millions Guineas. Before that run she sat wide and still won at The Valley over 1200m. She had a nice jump-out at Bendigo recently. From barrier one she’ll be in the right spot throughout. Tongue tie and winkers go on first time. FELICIA (9) didn’t jump well and sat wide when she fought on for third behind LANKAN STAR (1) and PAUL’S REGRET (10). Both the placegetters meet the winner 5.5kg better. TALENTED (11) ran on well for second behind Lunakorn at Bendigo over 1300m at her last start.
SUGGESTED BET: IT’S KIND OF MAGIC THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 6 – Its Kind Of Magic $4.60-$3.40 ($500 @ $4.60 TWICE, $400 @ $4.60, $500 e/w @ $4.20/$1.80, $400 @ $4)
9 – Felicia $6.50-$5
RACE 6: 2.55PM BERT BRYANT HANDICAP (1600M)
David Hayes has found SO SI BON’s (2) niche which is 1600m at Caulfield and even though it’s an exercise full of trepidation he’s got the form to win two races in a row as his recent form has been excellent. Four runs ago he finished a close-up sixth in the All-Star Mile. He’s then finished fourth in the Bendigo Golden Mile, fourth in the Easter Cup and then won the VOBIS Gold Mile last start also here. Tom Stockdale’s 3kg claim brings him in with 58.5kg. Stablemate SIKANDARABAD (3) was disappointing last start. Go on his second to Kentrucky Breeze two runs ago gthis track and distance. HANG MAN (8) ran on strongly for second behind the in-form Rupture over 1700m at Flemington on Anzac Day. SO YOU WIN (4) has won three from four second-up. A wet track will suit MASK OF TIME (6) who was just beaten at Group 3 level at Randwick two starts ago on a soft track. KIWIA (1) usually benefits from a first-up run but he won a Ballarat jump-out recently. Archie Alexander also has import SOUTHERN ROCK (10) making his Australian debut and he has won four of eight starts.
SUGGESTED BET: SO SI BON THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 7: 3.35PM BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP (1800M)
Should be a busy race up front which plays into the hands of the pair who ran the quinella at Bendigo last start in AUSSIE NUGGET and GRINZINGER STAR who both will be suited by the step up to 1800m. At Bendigo Aussie Nugget swept home down the outside to win and had something uo his sleeve. SHOT OF IRISH (2) led bthroughout to win at Sandown last Saturday over 1600m. He’s won four from six on soft tracks. Ghis is his first attempt at 1800m. MIRETTE (8) made up ground for sixth behind So Si Bon last start in an encouraging run. She’s now had three runs back in and should be ready to improve. She likes wet tracks. SENTIMENTALIST (5) made it two wins in a week when he held off Mr Quickie to win the VOBIS Gold Heatyh over 2000 last start. NUDGE BAR (9) is racing well and will push forward. DEFIBRILLATE (1) is an emerging stayer resuming from a spell.
SUGGESTED BET: AUSSIE NUGGET THE WIN
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 14 – New Arrangement $11-$9
RACE 8: 4.15PM HANDICAP (1100M)
EDUARDO (2) tired after showing his usual speed this track and distance first-up from a spell when 13th behind WILLIAM THOMAS (3) who swept home to win. He’ll be fitter and he’s drops inw eight after three kilos claim for Harry Grace. Prospect of a wet track will also help. William Thomas will again enjoy the fast speed and he;s wion three from four at this track and distance. Proved too good for similar field last start coming from last. VAINSTREAM (5) is racing in great fashion and likes Caulfield. He will get a good run on the speed. Query if it’s wet though. CORUSCATE (8) followed first-up win at Bendigo with a third in that race last start. Stablemate ESPERANCE (12) ran home nicely for fifth over 1000m behind Prezado at Flemington first-up. CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) likes this track and distance – he finished third in the Oakleigh Plate two starts ago. He has a three kilos claim from Thomas Stockdale. NEWS GIRL (9) wasn’t far away and likes Caulfield and will only carry 53 kilos.
SUGGESTED BET: EDUARDO EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
RACE 9: 4.45PM HANDICAP (1000M)
IDIDIDITFORLOVE (9) won his first two starts at Terang and Sale and only went down to a potential top-liner in Masked Crusader at Bendigo last start. With 54kgs he’s got a great light-weight chance. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (3) didn’t handle the heavy track at Caulfield last start and she was also slow to begin on a day which played to on-pacers. She handles wet tracks and was narrowly beaten by Sangria at stakes level at her previous start at Flemington. She has a second to Exhilarates over 1100m here. She’s had four starts over 1000m for two wins and a third. THE ASTROLOGIST (5) is a winner at Caulfield last winter and has been trialling well. He’s first-up for 46 weeks. SOWETO HAZE (12) could be the blow out. Only beaten 1.25 lengths behind Lankan Star at Caulfield at his last start. Callow stays with him. STRASBOURG (1) is a Group 2 winner resuming from a spell for a new stable in Anthony Freedman.
SUGGESTED BET: IDIDITFORLOVE EACH-WAY
TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3 – Absolute Flirt $4-$3.60 ($246 @ $3.80)
NICK QUINN’S WEEKEND SNAPSHOT
Classy colt Dalasan has kept improving this campaign and is ready to peak in the Group 1 South Australian Derby, but he faces strong line-up in the feature are at Morphettville on Saturday.
TAB’s Nick Quinn runs the rule over the big races across the country this weekend and pinpoints the early market movers.
BEST BET
MASKED CRUSADER (Randwick, R5, No. 14)
VALUE BET
HI STRANGER (Caulfield, R9, No. 4)
LAY OF THE WEEK
KEMENTARI (Doomben, R8, No. 1)
MORPHETTVILLE
RACE 8: SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2500m)
This is a terrific edition of the South Australian Derby, with three clear fancies.
Dalasan is the $3.20 favourite. He is attempting to make it three wins in a row since he returned from a strong Melbourne campaign, and the longer the preparation has gone on, the better he has got. Dalasan finished fifth in the All-Star Mile, just 1.5 lengths from the winner Regal Power before going back home. He has since won the Port Adelaide Guineas easily as an odds-on favourite, then last-start he held off a gallant Themoonlitegambler in the Chairman’s Stakes, where Warning was a fast-finishing third.
Warning is on the third line of betting at $4.20, while Themoonlitegambler is a $21 chance.
Warning should appreciate the step up to 2500m, a distance where he won the Group 1 VRC Derby at Flemington in the spring.
Damien Thornton takes the ride aboard Warning. The underrated jockey is shooting for his second Group 1 victory in the space of a week after claiming the Group 1 Australasian Oaks on Toffee Tongue. Warning will be strong late and must be respected. One punter has had $6000 on him at $4.40.
The most intriguing galloper is Russian Camelot. He has had an action-packed campaign and it is hard to believe that he has had just two runs this preparation. He resumed from a spell with a fast-finishing fourth at Flemignton after bombing the start.
He was then a drifting favourite at Caulfield and subsequently scratched at the barriers, before dropping back to a Pakenham race and bolting in by seven lengths before missing a 1700m race at Flemington last Saturday week because of an inflamed throat.
I have no doubt Russian Camelot is the best horse in this field, but will he be the best horse on Saturday on the back of an interrupted campaign?
THE TIP: BOX QUINELLA — DALASAN (1), WARNING (2) and RUSSIAN CAMELOT (4).
CAULFIELD
RACE 6: BERT BRYANT HCP (1600m)
After registering his fourth career victory at Cauflield last start, So Si Bon has been posted a $3.50 favourite to register back-to-back victories for the first time in his career.
He is a model of consistency and has finished in the money seven times from 19 attempts at the track. He is again worth including in the multiples.
The runner that I am tipping is the second favourite, Hang Man, who has opened at $3.70. Hang Man worked home strongly at Flemington last start and should get a nice run in transit from barrier four.
The interesting runner is import Southern Rock, who is having his first Australian start. He won a 1650m race at Hamilton Park and, while he will be better over more ground, he is worth including in the multiples.
THE TIP: HANG MAN.
RANDWICK
RACE 2: CENTRAL COAST MARINERS HCP (1200m)
Punters are backing the Chris Waller-trained colt Kukeracha for this race, and also in the Group 1 J.J Atkins next month in Brisbane. Kukeracha has firmed from $51 to $15 for the J.J Atkins, including bets of $1000 each-way at $51 and $13.50 the place. The colt produced a brilliant debut victory at Geelong after he missed the start. If he is to go on to Group 1 glory next month then he simply must be winning this Randwick event.
THE TIP: KUKERACHA.
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY WITH MICHAEL MANLEY
THE BEST CHANCES
DALASAN ($3.10)
He’s making his move to being the top three-year-old in the land. He ran a superb race in the All_Star Mile when fourth and has since won his past two starts easily in Adelaide. He’s an unknown over 2500m but he’s bred to do it.
WARNING ($4)
He didn’t fire in his Sydney campaign but he looked back to his best when he charged home to finish third behind Dalasan in the Chairman’s Stakes. He easily won the Victoria Derby last campaign and he looks in similar form.
RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($3.90)
He’s the query but Danny O’Brien is prepared to back his judgment and take this race on with him at only his fifth start but who is going to question his training strategies. He’s also a Northern Hemisphere bred colt so he’s six months younger than his rivals. Against that he’s got outstanding potential and some good judges suggest he could be anything.
MIYAKE ($17)
Son of Japanese superstar Deep Impact and he’s got staying potential. He took a split in the straight and sprinted home quickly to win at Canterbury last start. He’s in the Waller stable and he’s an unknown factor.
MOONLIGHT MAID ($14)
Big effort to hold on and finish third behind Toffee Tongue in last week’s Australasian Oaks as she charged around the field from last with 1200m to go to take the lead. If she can settle in the run her staying capacity will take her along way.
BEST ROUGHIE
ZAYYDANI ($19)
Last year David Hayes produced the winner of this race with Qafila after she finished fourth in the Australasian Oaks. This filly was last and was blocked for a run in the straight but ran home strongly to finish seventh beaten only 2.4 lengths. Extra distance ideal.
THE SPEED
Slight query on the speed. RISING ARCHIE, THEMOONLITEGAMBLER and DALASAN will all push forward. MIYAKE and RUSSIAN CAMELOT shouldn’t be too far away.
HISTORY SAYS
Last year filly Qafila backed up a week after running fourth in the Australasian Oaks to win. The winner of the Chairman’s Stakes won two of the three previous editions.
THE STRATEGY
Put 40% of the bank on Warning and Russian Camelot to win. Then put the rest each-way on Zayydani.
THE FACTORS
Track: Good 4
Rail: Out 3 metres from the 1800m to the winning post. True for the remainder.
Forecast: 16C. Showers.
THE TIPS
- WARNING
- Russian Camelot
- Dalasan
- Zayydani
THE TRAINER
DAVID HAYES
ZAYYDANI
“I have a really big opinion of her as a stayer and next spring she’ll be one of the better middle distance horses in the land. She produced a similar run to last year’s winner Qafila in the Oaks but she’s a better stayer than her. She’ll run a big race.”