Nick Quinn: Expert tips, betting analysis for Pakenham and Ascot
A horse to make it two wins in seven days looms as TAB tipping guru Nick Quinn’s best bet on Pakenham Cup Day, but it’s on the other side of the country where he says the value lies.
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TAB form expert Nick Quinn picks out his best bets for Pakenham Cup Day and the Group 1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot on Saturday.
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QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS
BEST BET
ODEON
(Pakenham R5, No. 1)
VALUE BET
NEVER AGAIN
(Pakenham R6, No. 8)
LAY OF THE DAY
MANGIONE
(Rosehill R4, No. 3)
HANSON HANDICAP (1600m)
PAKENHAM R5 3.20PM
This race sets up perfectly for the ultra-consistent Odeon to win his first race since saluting on Melbourne Cup Day in 2017.
He caught the eye when resuming from a spell, he also has a good second-up record and his rating has now dropped to a level where he is ready to win again.
Odeon is also in well at the weights after the claim for Thomas Stockdale and punters are stepping in backing him from $4.40 into $3.10.
I anticipate the main danger to Odeon could be Brown Ben from the McEvoy stable who resumed with a nice fourth in the Kilmore Cup and should strip fitter.
THE BET: ODEON THE WIN
PAKENHAM CUP (2500m, Listed)
PAKENHAM R7, 4.40PM
Punters are latching onto Secret Blaze to make it two wins in the space of a week after a strong win at Moonee Valley last Saturday.
The McEvoy-trained galloper has been well backed already firming from $3.50 into $2.60 and will start around the $2.50 mark and does look one of the better bets on a strong Pakenham program.
Fresh off a marvellous Group 1 win last Saturday aboard Hey Doc, leading jockey Luke Currie will have to overcome the wide draw, but the horse has enough versatility for that not to be an issue.
Outside the favourite it does look an open race, I anticipate Chapada will be in the placings again.
Chapada was strong finishing third behind Southern France in the Sandown Classic and must again be respected.
THE BET: SECRET BLAZE THE WIN
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KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC (1800m, Group 1)
ASCOT R8, 7.50pm
The Group 1 Kingston Classic has a nice mix of local contenders and raiders from the Eastern States.
The Grant & Alana Williams team saddle up four runners including the rising star Tuscan Queen and last start Group 1 winner Regal Power.
Tuscan Queen was a $51 chance in early markets and now heads the market at $3.20.
Tuscan Queen has won three of her four career starts and is a progressive type who will be aided by the services of William Pike.
I am not opposing the favourite, and betting against Pike when he has had the choice of runners normally ends poorly, but the each-way play looks to be Regal Power.
Regal Power was impressive winning the Group 1 Railway Stakes. He has drifted in betting due to the wide barrier and the fact that William Pike has jumped off, the replacement jockey is superstar Damien Oliver so nothing is lost in that department.
Regal Power will be nearly the same price to run a place as Tuscan Queen is to win and worth sticking.
At longer odds Pacodali looks to be the blowout chance from the Lindsey Smith stable.
Pacodali was ultra impressive winning at Sandown last start winning the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes defeating the highly touted Setting Sail.
THE BET: REGAL POWER EACH-WAY