Raceday focus: Tips, latest betting, analysis for Caulfield and Rosehill
Mystery Shot faces his toughest challenge yet, but if form is any indication the unbeaten youngster should get the job done as Leo Schlink and Gilbert Gardiner preview the Caulfield card. BEST BETS, ODDS, ANALYSIS
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Herald Sun form analysts Leo Schlink and Gilbert Gardiner run the rule over the Caulfield program, highlighted the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes.
Check out what else they like with their best bets, quadrella snapshot and betting strategy for the nine-race card.
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LEO’S BEST
BEST BET
MYSTERY SHOT (Race 5, No 2, $3.70)
Unbeaten in three starts and downed subsequent Flemington winner Splendoronthegrass here over 1440m last time. Faces quality opposition but can go on with it.
NEXT BEST
GRAND DE FLORA (Race 6, No 3, $2.20)
Racing brilliantly and chases a hat-trick here at first attempt at 2000m. Gave away age and experience at Sandown but was still too good. Hard to beat.
ALL OVER BOSANOVA (Race 2, No 1, $7.50)
Racing consistently without much luck. Blinkers go on here and Teo Nugent’s claim brings her in well at the weights. Black type winner who is well placed.
HE EKSCELS (Race 9, No 8, $9.50)
Has been backed from $31 into his current quote on the back of a decent recent trial and form in higher class than this. Goes well fresh.
THE TRAINER
SIMON ZAHRA (FLEMINGTON)
FRISSON (Race 1, No 6, $12)
“Good run the other day, 1400m should suit. Shouldn’t be far away.”
LIMPET (Race 1, No 8, $10)
“Good run the other day, looking for 1400m and if he hasn’t had enough, should run well.”
PROPELLE (Race 2, No 6, $3.80)
“Always takes a run to come on and she goes well second-up. She should run really well.”
SWORD OF MERCY (Race 2, No 9, $6)
“Not well weighted in this race with her rating but she’s a horse with talent.”
QUEEN OF TARTS (Race 6, No 14, $41)
“Thrown in the deep end after her good maiden win the other day.”
LITTLE STEVIE (Race 8, No 15, $18)
“Should run well in what is probably the toughest race of the day.”
GILBO’S BEST
BEST BET
TRIPLE STRIP (Race 9, No. 14)
VALUE BET
ELDERFLOWER (Race 8, No. 7)
QUADZILLA WITH GILBERT GARDINER
LEG 1: RACE 6
GRAND DE FLORA (3) and TOORADIN (6) look to get dream runs.
1ST LEG 3, 6
LEG 2: RACE 7
VIRIDINE (2) won with authority at Randwick last start. This looks a nice progression for the Godolphin sprinter. Mudlark JUNGLE EDGE (1) must be included along with INTUITION (5) and TAVISAN (7).
2ND LEG 1, 2, 5, 7
LEG 3: RACE 8
Stablemates SIZZLEFLY (1) and THAT GIRL (3) should be fighting out the finish. On form, FLOSTAR (2) must be considered but has not appreciated Caulfield previously. BEATRIX (6) kicked strongly to win at Sandown last start and ELDERFLOWER (7) on the up.
3RD LEG 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
LEG 4: RACE 9
Ex-Tasmanian mare TRIPLE STRIP (14) was not far off Great Duchess and Kings Brook when held up at Flemington first up. That form is good enough to win today. BEDFORD (2) loves Caulfield (5:3-0-0) and has won second-up once in five attempts. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (6) has four wins over 1600m and the extra trip today should be no problem.
4TH LEG 2, 6, 14
EARLY QUADDIE
3, 6, 9/15, 18/4, 5, 6, 8/2, 6, 10
$100 flexi for 138.88 per cent
BIG6
4, 5/2, 6/1, 2, 3, 6/2, 5, 7/1, 3, 7/2, 3, 14
$100 flexi for 23.14 per cent
FOUR-PLAY GILBERT’S $50 BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 8
3YO FILLIES HANDICAP
$25 each-way ELDERFLOWER (7) at $13/$4
Untapped three year-old filly has not missed a place in five career starts including strong wins at Warrnambool and Ballarat (synthetic). One run at Caulfield for a third on debut in June.
RACE 5
SUPER VOBIS 3YO HANDICAP
$25 each-way SCORPIUS (6) at $7
Bursting to win a race and with apprentice claim should be right in the finish. Mystery Shot the obvious danger but a big pull in the weights works in our favour.
RACE 3
BM 78 HANDICAP
$50 the win on TAVIDANCE (18) at $4
Lightly-raced four year-old gelding has shown ability in the past and first up third at Sandown was full of merit after 10 months off the scene. Top stable and jockey combination and drawn perfect.
RACE 9
BM 84 HANDICAP
$50 the win TRIPLE STRIP (14) at $5
Former Tasmanian galloper by the same sire (Needs Further) as Mystic Journey. Held up badly at Flemington last start behind Great Duchess. With luck in transit, just wins.
GILBO’S PREVIEW
RACE 1: 11.50AM SUPER VOBIS 2YO HANDICAP (1400M)
THE FELON (1) makes the step up to city grade after a comfortable debut win at Pakenham on the synthetic. The two year-old colt sat off the speed and three-wide but yet still found plenty in the locker to stride out to a comprehensive victory. Small field and gun jockey engaged. WUNAMBAL (2) is coming off a Moe maiden while EFFLORESCENCE (3) must be respected with Billy Egan riding for Anthony Freedman. NARVAEZ (4) could give some cheek down 200m in distance after finding the mile and Cherry Tortoni far too good last Saturday at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: THE FELON win
TAB MARKET MOVER: 6) Frisson $17-$11
8) Limpet $11-$9.50
RACE 2: 12.25PM MARES BM90 HANDICAP (1100M)
OUR CAMPANA (3) has only missed the placings twice in her past eight starts and won here at Caulfield over 1100m last preparation. Usually takes a run to hit top gear but has more upside than a lot of her opposition today. Should find a nice spot from barrier one and be in the finish. PROPELLE (6) is always dangerous against her own and with Craig Williams in the saddle must be considered after a solid fourth first up. Propelle has placed twice and won second up previously. Stablemate SWORD OF MERCY (9) will look to make it four wins in a row for the Ellerton-Zahra yard.
SUGGESTED BET: SWORD OF MERCY win
TAB MARKET MOVER: 5) She’s A Thief $10-$8.50
RACE 3: 1PM BM 78 HANDICAP (1400)
TAVIDANCE (18e) needs a couple of scratchings to get in the giant field but from a good draw and gun jockey Jamie Kah aboard should be fighting out the finish. Lightly-raced four year-old gelding was a close-up third first up at Sandown Lakeside from a long break. Won twice previously. SAKURA (15) must contend with a horror barrier but with one of the best in Damien Oliver aboard cannot be overlooked. FIVE KINGDOM (6) one of three for Lindsay Park in the race and returns after a long break. Showed ability previously but failed to come up last preparation.
SUGGESTED BET: SAKURA each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: 18) Tavidance (2E) $4.80-$4
BETS: $500 @ $4.60
RACE 4: 1.35PM HANDICAP (1400M)
MORISSY (5) has a devastating turn of hoof on his day but can be hard to catch. The son of Snitzel recorded his second win at Caulfield in four career starts at the Heath. Expect another forward showing today. SUPERHARD (4) one of two in the race for astute trainer Lindsey Smith including stable debutant, ex-Michelle Payne and one-time Cox Plate aspirant KASPERSKY (2). KINGS BROOK (6) can go one better after pushing Great Duchess to the brink last start, while BALLET MASTER (8) returns from a successful hit-and-run Randwick raid and not without a chance of making it three wins from his past four starts.
SUGGESTED BET: MORISSY win
TAB MARKET MOVER: 4) Superhard $7.50-$6
6) Kings Brook $8-$6
BETS: $300 @ $8
RACE 5: 2.15PM SUPER VOBIS 3YO HANDICAP (1400M)
SCORPIUS (6) has been bursting to win a race and gets his chance today after fighting hard to run third last start at Caulfield. Forgive start two back when no match for Front Page in the Listed A.R Creswick Stakes. Unbeaten MYSTERY SHOT (2) must carry 61.5kg — up five on last start at Caulfield — but remains the testing material. TERRACE HOUSE (7) and ALBURQ (1) worthy of consideration in any exotics along with WICKLOW TOWN (4) and INSPIRED SUN (9). Peter Moody-trained PARIS (10) has placed in her past two starts and must be respected with Luke Nolen in the saddle.
SUGGESTED BET: SCORPIUS each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: 7) Terrace House $8.50-$5.50
9) Inspired Sun $7.50-$6.50
RACE 6: 2.55PM SUPER VOBIS 3YO HANDICAP (2000M)
Danny O’Brien-trained ex-Kiwi filly GRAND DE FLORA (3) has won three of her four Australian starts, including the past two with Craig Williams on top. TOORADIN (6) should appreciate drier ground after struggling in the Heavy conditions recently. Drawn to get the favours and could be the knockout hope if the favourite gets into trouble.
SUGGESTED BET: GRAND DE FLORA win
TAB MARKET MOVER: 2) Right You Are $2.80-$2.70
BETS: $500 x (2) @ $2.80/$2.70
3) Grand De Flora $3.60-$3.30
12) Rebel Racer $26-$19
RACE 7: 3.35PM GROUP 3 SIR JOHN MONASH STAKES (1100M)
VIRIDINE (2) won with some authority at Randwick last start and this looks like a nice progression for the consistent Godolphin sprinter on the cusp of pocketing $1m in prizemoney for the Blue Army. Mudlark JUNGLE EDGE (1) only knows how to run bold races but might not get conditions to suit. ASHLOR is the only other last-start winner in the field and should be thereabouts at the finish. Goulburn trainer Kurt Goldman’s willingness to get ex-Godolphin sprinter INTUITION (5) to Melbourne despite the NSW-Victoria border closure suggests another forward showing. TAVISAN (7) has won and placed at Caulfield previously.
SUGGESTED BET: INTUITION each way
TAB MARKET MOVER: 2) Viridine $2.90-$2.70
5) Intuition $15-$12
6) I Am Someone $7-$7.50-$6.50
BETS: $800 @ $7
RACE 8: 4.10PM 3YO FILLIES HANDICAP (1100M)
SIZZLEFLY (1) and THAT GIRL (3) could easily be fighting out the finish for trainer Philip Stokes. Stakes-placed SIZZLEFLY has not raced since running 3.5-length seventh behind Xilong in the Group 2 TAB Euclase Stakes. Form superior to rivals today and should be winning despite the big weight. On recent form, FLOSTAR (2) must be considered but the three year-old filly tends to save her best for the bigger tracks. BEATRIX (6) kicked strongly to win at Sandown Lakeside last start. ELDERFLOWER (7) has won twice and placed on three other occasions in five career starts. Knockout chance well down in the weights.
SUGGESTED BET: ELDERFLOWER each way
TAB MARKET MOVER: 2) Flostar $9.50-$7
6) Beatrix $15-$11
BETS: $1,500 win x $500 place @ $13/$3.90, $500 @ $11
11) Finesse Tess $13-$11
13) No Fontiers $19-$13
RACE 9: 4.43PM BENCHMARK 84 (1700M)
Ex-Tasmanian mare TRIPLE STRIP (14) was not far off Great Duchess and Kings Brook when held up at Flemington first up. That form is good enough to win. BEDFORD (2) loves Caulfield (5:3-0-0) and has won second-up once in five attempts. CURRAGH (3) made up a heap of ground last start and could be one for the multiples. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (6) has four wins over 1600m and the extra trip today should be no problem after knuckling down last at Caulfield to edge out Thought Of That. FRANCE’S BOY (5) and DOGMATIC (11) among the lesser chances.
SUGGESTED BET: TRIPLE STRIP win
TAB MARKET MOVER: 11) Dogmatic $11-$9.50
BETS: $500ew @ $10/$3.40
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QUINNY’S MAIL BAG: CAULFIELD AND ROSEHILL
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn looks for the best plays for Caulfield and Rosehill Gardens.
BEST BET
RIGHT YOU ARE (Caulfield, Race 6, No. 2)
VALUE BET
NOBLE BOY (Rosehill, Race 7, No. 8)
LAY OF THE DAY
BANDERSNATCH (Rosehill, Race 6, No. 1)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
CAULFIELD
RACE 7: SIR JOHN MONASH STAKES (1100m)
Viridine has attracted early support, backed from $2.90 into $2.70 on the strength of a powerful win last-start in the Winter Dash at Randwick. The much-travelled James Cummings-trained galloper races in Melbourne for the first time since winning the Doveton Stakes at Sandown last November. He has a touch of class and should settle midfield and shapes as a leading chance.
Much-loved sprinter Jungle Edge is on the second line of betting at $4.40. Jungle Edge would be the one to beat if the track stays in the soft range, he has won 11 times on that surface and, if leaders are doing well, he will take a power of beating.
At longer odds there has been a move for Intuition who has been $15 into $12.
SUGGESTED BET: JUNGLE EDGE each-way.
ROSEHILL
RACE 1: DARLEY 2YO HCP (1100m)
The best-backed runner at this early stage across the country for Saturday is North Pacific. The Team Hawkes-trained colt placed behind subsequent Golden Slipper winner Farnan on debut in February and has trialled impressively. He opened $3.50 and has firmed into $2.80, including bets of $1500 at $3.50 and $1000 at $3. He was well back in the run on debut before hitting the line strongly and expect them to be more positive from gate one.
Lady Banff opened a $3.50 equal favourite and has been pushed out to $3.80. She is building a nice race resume, having won three of her first five starts and won a trial recently.
At longer odds, there has been a move for the Brad Widdup-trained Shaik, who won well on debut at Newcastle. She has been backed from $15 into $11.
SUGGESTED BET: NORTH PACIFIC the win.