Race day focus: Expert tips, betting analysis for Flemington and Randwick
It could be a tough day for punters looking for value at Flemington. Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner has analysed the form to help you pick a winner.
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Herald Sun form analyst Gilbert Gardiner has had a look at the form for the Flemington races on Saturday and thinks punters could be in for a tough day when looking for some value.
See his analysis, form, tips and best bets below.
BEST BET
SOUTH PACIFIC (Race 5, No.5)
VALUE BET
FIGHT (Race 1, No.9)
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 4, 6/1/1, 4, 8, 9/3, 5
$100 flexi for 416.66 per cent
BIG6
1, 4, 8/3, 5/1, 2, 8/1, 3, 7/2, 8, 9/5, 8, 17
$100 flexi for 20.57 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 1, 2, 8
Race 7: 1, 3, 6, 7
Race 8: 2, 8, 9
Race 9: 5, 8, 12, 17
$100 flexi for 69.44 per cent
FLEMINGTON
Track: Soft 6. Rail: 4m out.
RACE 1: 11:55AM THE BELZONI (1000M)
IRISH MINT (5) is a distance specialist (29: 9-4-3) in Adelaide and comes to headquarters off back-to-back Morphettville wins. Will be strong at the finish and as long as he handles the straight should be right in the finish with Damien Oliver booked to ride. FIGHT (9) could be the knockout chance, gets another chance in the big smoke after a gutsy Cranbourne win. Likes to get out rolling and could give a lot of cheek. ASHLOR (1) the class sprinter in the field but has struggled at Flemington previously. Tasmanian sprinter GEE GEE SECONDOVER (3) unbeaten fresh (3: 3-0-0) and must be considered at his first go on the mainland.
SUGGESTED BET: IRISH MINT win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Snitzkraft $9-$6.50-$7 ($200 @ $8)
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RACE 2: 12.30PM MELBOURNE TOWN PLATE (1200M)
SANSOM (1) only knows how to run well, with six wins and three seconds to his name from 13 career starts. Outsprinted late over 1100m at Caulfield last start but chased hard and looks to be screaming out for the 1200m. PROPER ROGUE (4) won smartly here at Flemington in February and resumed with a good second at Caulfield last month behind LUCIFER’S REWARD (2) and Elderflower. WILMOT PASS (6) looked unlucky first-up fourth at Caulfield behind Lucifer’s Reward. Drawn nicely again and could be an improver on the bigger track. CALYPSO REIGN (7) and SEA DRAGON, who resumes as a gelding, should be thereabouts.
SUGGESTED BET: WILMOT PASS each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Proper Rogue $4.60-$3.50-$3-$3.10 ($1,500 @ $4.40, $1,500 @ $4, $500 @ $4, $400 @ $4, $800 @ $3.70, $200 @ $3.70, $2,000 @ $3.50, $500 @ $3)
RACE 3: 1.05PM BYERLEY HCP (1800M)
ALCYONE (1) will be joining the fancied Cherry Tortoni at the top of the TAB pre-nominations market for the Group 1 Victoria Derby with a win on Saturday. Was unlucky at Flemington two back when strung up in traffic but responded nicely last start to give Cherry Tortoni a fright. GALACTIC FURY (2) still a maiden after eight starts but has placed in three of his past four races. Another one who should benefit from the extra trip. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (3) ran a bold third last start as a $101-shot for hobby trainer Denis Pagan. MR WOLF (4) is the only horse in the field that has a win next to his name after success at Murray Bridge two starts back.
SUGGESTED BET: ALCYONE win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Alcyone $1.95-$1.85-$1.90 ($1,000 @ $1.95, $500 @ $1.90)
RACE 4: 1.40PM RISING STARS FINAL (1400M)
LABURNUM (1) has won and placed in both third-up runs previously and only beaten less than a length last start at Caulfield should be at the top of her game. Will appreciate apprentice Michael Poy’s 1.5kg claim after lumping 62kg last time. ZABELARINA (4) should be competitive down in the weights, along with SHE’S ON TIME (6) from a good draw. BEAUTY BOLT (8) lumped a big weight in the Rivette Series Final and had excuses. Should appreciate a 6.5kg swing with Campbell Rawiller claiming three kilograms. MAXIMAK (9) is deep in her preparation but has won two of her past seven races and placed on two other occasions.
SUGGESTED BET: BEAUTY BOLT each-way
RACE 5: 2.20PM FLEMINGTON CUP 1849 (2800M)
SWEET THOMAS (3) powered through the slop to win the Stayer’s Cup at Rosehill last start. Only wins have been on Good and Heavy tracks, with 20 starts on the Soft returning only eight placings. Under the odds? SOUTH PACIFIC (5) should go close to starting favourite after luckless Australian debut at Caulfield. Stable confidence high and Damien Oliver could not wait to jump aboard again. ALFARRIS (4) only just missed his last start at Flemington behind Lord Belvedere. CRIMSON ACE (9) has been going nicely in midweek grade and only missed by a pimple last start at Sandown Lakeside. Certainly one for the multiples.
SUGGESTED BET: SOUTH PACIFIC win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Alfarris $4.80-$4
RACE 6: 3PM TRAINERS’ TRUST HCP (1600M)
RIGHT YOU ARE (1) has runs on the board and drawn perfectly. Scratched from a similar race last week. Big weight to contend with but in good hands (Damien Oliver) and has the class edge. MR CANCUN (2) has three wins from seven starts and only missed a place once. Trainer Lindsey Smith is a master at picking the right time to bring a horse to town after strong provincial form. Respect. CHARLEISE (8) will appreciate the big track at Flemington and if able to find clear galloping room in the straight should be right in the finish. ARCTIC WOLF (11) pick of the roughies.
SUGGESTED BET: RIGHT YOU ARE win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Right You Are $3.40-$4-$3.90 ($1,000 @ $4, $500 @ $3.60), Mr Cancun $6.50-$4.80-$5.50 ($2,000 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $6, $500 @ $6), Over The Sky $5-$4.80
RACE 7: 3.40PM DUNBAR’S FLEMINGTON INN (1600M)
Bold frontrunner SIRCCONI (1) has wound back the clock past three starts including a win in the Winter Championship Final. Drawn out and jumps sharply in the weights – up six kilograms – but must be respected on past performances. ORDEROFTHEGARTER (3) good enough to be winning but has not been seen at the races since Australian debut second at Flemington in September 2018. Watch for any market moves. AL GALAYEL (6) gets the shades back on and open to improvement. DANON ROMAN (7) was super impressive running on to win his last start at Flemington. CHAPEL CITY (8) could be one for the multiples with a more economical run in transit.
SUGGESTED BET: AL GALAYEL each way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Danon Roman $4.80-$5-$4.20 ($200 @ $5)
RACE 8: 4.15PM HAPPY RETIREMENT PAT HYLAND (2000M)
BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (9) won with a leg in the air at Sandown Hillside last start over 1800m and the third horse home, Master Shuhood, franked the form winning comfortably at the Valley last Sunday. Former international who looks to appreciate the big tracks and has Craig Williams enlisted. PLEIN CIEL (2) was plain in the Winter Championship Final when outsprinted late and should appreciate the jump to 2000m. SALSAMOR (3) the pick of the Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young triumvirate, while ultra-consistent galloper DOUBLE YOU TEE (5) should be thereabouts again. CREEDENCE (10) has a habit of bobbing up at odds, while ex-Kiwi mare POLLY GREY (8) has her hoof on the till.
SUGGESTED BET: BARTHOLOMEU DIAS win
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Polly Grey $21-$15, Tavirun $31-$26
RACE 9: 4.48PM TRAINERS & STABLE STAFF HCP (1200M)
PINYIN (17) gets back to her preferred 1200m distance range after s strange run at Sandown Hillside last start when tailed off before the bend only to savage the line and run fourth. Was good at Flemington two back when third in a bunched finish. Throw a blanket over the rest of the field. SAKURA (12) was scratched from a similar assignment last week and looks capable. I’M TELLING YA (5) has won and placed four times at Flemington previously. OUR WIND SPIRIT (8) has drawn inside and remains undefeated in Australia after one run in New Zealand. Big step in grade from Ballarat synthetic wins and a benchmark 70 at Geelong.
SUGGESTED BET: PINYIN win
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Our Wind Spirit $4.60-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $4.60, $2,000 @ $4.40, $2,000 @ $4, $500 @ $3.80, $500 x $700 e/w @ $3.80/$1.70)
QUINNY’S MAILBAG
TIPS FOR FLEMINGTON AND RANDWICK
TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn goes in search of early value for the weekend races — and also to a spring feature.
BEST BET
TAILLEUR (Randwick, Race 3, No.3)
VALUE BET
MR CANCUN (Flemington, Race 6, No.2)
LAY OF THE WEEK
MATOWI (Randwick, Race 5, No.5)
FLEMINGTON
RACE 6: TRAINERS TRUST HCP (1600m)
After being scratched from a winnable race at Caulfield last Saturday when dominating the market, Right You Are is a drifting favourite at Flemington on Saturday. The Price-Kent trained galloper opened $3.40 and has eased to $4. He won three straight races before running second to the classy Persan. While he is still learning, he has untapped potential and a lovely turn of foot and again deserves to head the market.
The early money has come for Over The Sky, who is a stablemate to Right You Are. The colt has been backed from $5 into $4.40. Over The Sky broke his maiden at Pakenham two starts ago before just finishing out of the money at Flemington last start.
The runner who I feel holds each-way appeal is the Lindsay Smith-trained Mr Cancun. He opened $6.50 and has been backed into $5.50 including one bet of $1000 at $6. Mr Cancun won well at Geelong last start and despite the rise in grade looks progressive and worth sticking with.
SUGGESTED BET: MR CANCUN each-way.
RANDWICK
RACE 3: BYERLEY HCP (1800m)
A fortnight ago the James Cummings-trained filly Tailleur was heavily backed when resuming from a spell and needed every centimetre for the 1100m distance to run down the leader, Switched, and win in a photo finish. Despite the narrow margin, there was lots to like about that victory and she has been well backed to maintain her unbeaten record. She opened $2.40 and within minutes the money started to arrive, including $4000 at $2.50 and $2000 at $2.25. She has been backed into $1.95 and I anticipate she will jump $1.70, and win again.
Emeralds is on the second line of betting at $7 after getting out to $7.50 and shapes as the main danger and is worth including in the multiples.
SUGGESTED BET: TAILLEUR the win.
2020 MEMSIE STAKES — CAULFIELD
The Memsie Stakes might not be run and won until August 29, but plenty of bets have already come in on race since TAB opened its all-in market on Tuesday.
The early money has come for Tasmanian mare Mystic Journey, who has been backed from an $8 equal favourite into an outright market leader at $5 after three separate $500 bets at prices ranging from $8 to $5. Mystic Journey hasn’t raced since a gallant fifth in last year’s Cox Plate behind Lys Gracieux. She rose to prominence with a seven-race winning streak, including the Group 1 Australian Guineas and the inaugural running of the All-Star Mile.
Trainer Adam Trinder confirmed Mystic Journey will commence her campaign in the P.B Lawrence Stakes and then head to the G1 Memsie Stakes
Trinder said he can’t wait to get her back to Caulfield where she is a two-time winner.
Arcadia Queen is now an $8 second elect with a host of quality runners lurking on the third line of betting at $11 including Melody Belle, Rubisaki and Superstorm.
Scales Of Justice won the Memsie Stakes last year and is a $15 chance.
It is worth noting that with some uncertainty surrounding the spring, if a race is postponed to a date later than seven days later than scheduled then all bets will be refunded.