Experts tips and betting analysis for The Valley and Randwick
TAB’s Nick Quinn and Herald Sun tipsters Gilbert Gardiner and Leo Schlink pick out the best bets on the card at The Valley, plus quaddie tips and analysis for Carlyon Stakes Day.
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Herald Sun racing guru’s Leo Schlink and Gilbert Gardiner have done the hard yards so you don’t have to.
Gil has studied the card at Moonee Valley inside out and has the inside line on every race. From best bets to the quaddies, Big 6 and much more, find out what Gil likes and get the latest market information from TAB.
Plus, check out Leo’s plays of the day and get the last word from trainer Danny O’Brien on his runners.
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LEO SCHLINK’S TOP PICKS
BEST BET
FLYING AWARD (Race 6, No.4, $4)
Talented colt resuming after 17-week spell. Sharpened by recent Flemington jumpout and could be a major spring player.
TAILLEUR (Race 2, No.4, $1.75)
Bolted in last start Rosehill over 1200m after controlling speed for third win from four starts. Hard to beat again.
KENTUCKY TORNADO (Race 4, No.8, $4.40)
Held up before surging home in race-best sectionals from the 400m at Flemington. Suited by step to 2500m.
THE TRAINER
Danny O’Brien
MIAMI BOUND (Race 1, No.2, $10)
“Very happy with her, she obviously had a great spring but didn’t fire in the autumn. She’ll appreciate the soft ground. The negative is the big weight.”
CHURNING (Race 2, No.7, $13)
“Nice filly who has trialled well. She has good fresh form and she has good form on soft tracks. Expecting her to run well.”
FLYING AWARD (Race 6, No.4, $4)
“Nice colt who ran well in the autumn. We’re hoping he can measure up to the better races in the spring.’’
GILBERT GARDINER’S TOP PICKS
BEST BET
WINDSTORM (Race 7, No.7)
VALUE BET
POLLY GREY (Race 9, No.6)
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 8/5, 11/1, 2, 3, 5/2
BIG6
1, 3, 5/2, 11/2, 4, 6/7/1, 2, 7, 10/1, 3, 4, 6
$100 flexi for 34.72 per cent
QUADZILLA WITH GILBERT GARDINER
LEG 1 — RACE 6
FLYING AWARD (4) must be doing enough at home for Danny O’Brien to even consider nominating the three year-old for a Cox Plate. Won a Listed race on Anzac Day and put away for the spring. HARD LANDING (1) and RATHLIN (2) next best.
1st leg: 1, 2, 4
LEG 2 — RACE 7
WINDSTORM (7) has serious black type quality but kicking off Melbourne spring campaign in a benchmark race. Track conditions the only thing that might stop him winning. LA TIGERESA (8) should be in the money and include COLUMBIA (10) as the knockout chance.
2nd leg: 7, 8, 10
LEG 3 — RACE 8
Nightmare quadrella leg. Decent rain brings JUNGLE EDGE (1) and GREAT AGAIN (2) right into the picture. Could DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (4) win?
3rd leg: 1, 2, 4
LEG 4 — RACE 9
YOUNG RASCAL (1) boasts a brilliant first-up record (6: 4-1-0) but has a big weight to contend with. POLLY GREY (6) is busting to win a race.
4th leg: 1, 6
SKINNY QUADDIE
Take two in the first leg, HARD LANDING (1) and FLYING AWARD (4). In the second leg take WINDSTORM (7) one out. Then in the third take JUNGLE EDGE (1). Come home with YOUNG RASCAL (1) and POLLY GREY (6).
1st leg: 1, 4
2nd leg: 7
3rd leg: 1
4th leg: 1, 6
GIL’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY
RACE 3 — THE VALLEY
$25 each-way MONTIA (5) at $7.50/$2.50
Vancouver filly won with a leg in the air on debut at the Valley and returned to run fourth behind Larimer Street. Ticks a few boxes. Favourite JENNI’S RAINBOW (11) might be special — as talk of the town suggests — but she still needs to prove it on grass after an emphatic synthetic debut.
RACE 5 — THE VALLEY
$25 each-way WINNING PARTNER (2) at $5.50/$2.10
Has raced in great heart this time in and due another win after three consecutive seconds. Chased hard behind the smart Tavidance last start. Drawn nicely and proven on rain-affected ground.
RACE 7 — RANDWICK
$25 each-way MASTER OF WINE (7) at $6.50/$2.50
Never missed a place first up (5: 2-2-1) and throttled the opposition resuming last preparation in heavy ground. High class animal with enough brilliance to win over the shorter trips despite being on a Cups path. Barrier 10 the only concern.
RACE 8 — THE VALLEY
$15/35 each-way DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (4) at $18/3.90
What a training performance it would be after 14 months off the scene. He flies fresh and travels for jockey Jamie Kah. Drawn to stalk the leaders and with luck could be right in the finish. Each-way special in what looks a very affair.
THE OIL — THE VALLEY
Gilbert Gardiner’s race-by-race analysis
RACE 1
HANDICAP (1523M)
COMING AROUND (4) was super impressive winning last start at Flemington as a well-supported favourite. No reason why the former West Australian galloper cannot go on with the job despite the odds-on quote. WIDGEE TURF (1) loves the track and trip but gone eight starts without troubling the winner’s stall. Second-up form is strong. MIAMI BOUND (2) has been nominated and scratched a couple times already. Is Saturday her day? Plenty of quality and upside about her. ODEON (3) always has admirers and jockey Jamie Kah going as well as anyone at the minute. Capable on rain-affected tracks but one third from three attempts at the Valley the query.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Widgee Turf $4.80-$4.60, Alsvin $14-$12
SUGGESTED BET: COMING AROUND win
RACE 2
MARES BENCHMARK 84 HCP (1200M)
TAILLEUR (4) has raced through her grades in Sydney in impressive fashion. Throttled a handy field last start on the Heavy 9 at Rosehill to make it three wins from four starts. The mare to beat for sure. SWORD OF MERCY (8) should appreciate the jump to 1200m after being outsprinted over 1000m at Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: TAILLEUR win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Tailleur $2.60-$1.90 BETS: $1,000 @ $2.50, $1,660 @ $2.52, $2,000 @ $2.25, $4,000 @ $2
RACE 3
THREE YEAR-OLD FILLIES PLATE (1200M)
JENNI’S RAINBOW (11) only won a Pakenham synthetic maiden but boy was it impressive. Oozes talent and from good draw should be able to make the necessary step up in grade. DIRTY THOUGHTS (3) has won her past two races and must be respected, while MONTIA (5) looks the pick of the Lindsay Park treble. Won on debut at the Valley in February and returned to the track to be only 1.6 lengths behind Larimer Street in Listed grade. CLEAN MACHINE (7) and YES BABY YES (9) both look to have good each-way chances for the Leon and Troy Corstens yard. Include JYOTI (1) in any exotics.
SUGGESTED BET: MONTIA each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Cloudbreaker $17-$13, Jenni’s Rainbow $3.20-$2.90 BETS: $500 @ $3.20, $2,000 @ $2.90, $600 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ $2.90, I’m Still Standing $201-$51
RACE 4
BENCHMARK 78 HCP (2500M)
TIGRE ROYALE (1) has a big weight to carry but four successive wins must be respected. Versatile galloper with a nice turn of foot. Meets a solid field here but capable of making it five in a row. MASTER SHUHOOD (2) won at the track three starts back and looks a genuine wet-tracker. If the heavens open get on. CONVERGING (3) should be thereabouts for the in-form Cumani-Kersley combination, while HIGH EMOCEAN (5) might be the best of the lot of them, having won her past three starts in dominant fashion. KENTUCKY TORNADO (8) should relish the 2500m trip third up.
SUGGESTED BET: TIGRE ROYALE each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: High Emocean $4.40-$3.30 BETS: $600 @ $4.20, $1,400 @ $3.70
RACE 5
BENCHMARK 78 (1600M)
WINNING PARTNER (2) is bursting to win after finding better at his past three starts. Touched off by Alsvin at the Valley two starts back. GLOBAL GIFT (3) relished the heavy going at Bendigo last start. Could JITTERY JACK (7) win again?
SUGGESTED BET: WINNING PARTNER each-way
RACE 6
LISTED McKENZIE STAKES (1200M)
FLYING AWARD (4) was put away after winning the Listed Anzac Day Stakes for a crack at the spring and with Damien Oliver in the saddle should be included in all bet types. Obvious ability and trainer Danny O’Brien thought enough of the colt to stump up a Cox Plate nomination. Big watch. RATHLIN (2) contested all the major two year-old races but found the grade to be a level above his ability. Finished last in a recent Sydney trial but was up against seasoned Group-calibre horses including last start winner Savatiano.
SUGGESTED BET: FLYING AWARD win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Loca $31-$21, Zipping Boy $13-$11
RACE 7
BENCHMARK 90 (1200M)
WINDSTORM (7) should give them an absolutely donkey licking considering the leviathan Bob Peters operation harbours Everest-type ambitions for the explosive Redoute’s Choice gelding. Would be $1.50 had he not drawn the carpark. For second, throw in EPIC GREY (4) and LA TIGERESA (8). Keep a close eye on any market moves for COLUMBIA (10) as astute Adelaide trainer Will Clarken has a knack of picking the right horses to bring to Melbourne, especially when Jamie Kah is engaged to ride them. DEXELATION is a last-start at the Valley also over 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: WINDSTORM win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Windstorm $2.10-$2 BETS: $1,610 @ $2.20
RACE 8
LISTED CARLYON STAKES (1000M)
Terrific race but nightmare quadrella leg. Lucky number punters rejoice again because of the 10 runners you would be hard-pressed ruling any out. Even the two rank outsiders, albeit up in grade, are Valley specialists. JUNGLE EDGE (1) and GREAT AGAIN (2) will want a torrent of rain and forecasts suggest that could be the case. Comeback galloper DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (4) has the class to win but 14 months out the worry. Include WITHERSPOON (9) in first fours and what not.
SUGGESTED BET: DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR each way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Jungle Edge $6-$4.80 BETS: $500 win x $1,000 place @ $5.50/$1.95, $1,300 @ $5, $900 @ $5, Witherspoon $15-$13
RACE 9
HANDICAP (2040M)
YOUNG RASCAL (1) makes his debut for Ballarat trainer Archie Alexander and boasts a brilliant first-up record (6: 4-1-0). Big weight and might not want it too wet so see how the track is playing. POLLY GREY (6) has found one or few better since arriving from New Zealand. Include MIRIMAR (8) and SCHABAU (9).
SUGGESTED BET: POLLY GREY each-way
TAB MARKET MOVER: Young Rascal $8.50-$7.50-$8, Orderofthegarter $4.80-$4.40, Polly Grey $6.50-$7-$6 BETS: $3,000 @ $6, Dogmatic (1E) $21-$18
NICK QUINN’S BEST PLAYS
BEST BET
CHICO MILAGRO (Doomben, Race 3, No. 8)
VALUE BET
MASTER OF WINE (Randwick, Race 7, No. 7)
LAY OF THE WEEK
KINANE (Randwick, Race 8, No. 11)
QUINNY’S RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS
THE VALLEY
RACE 3: 3YO FILLIES PLATE (1200M)
Jenni’s Rainbow landed some good bets when bolting to victory at Pakenham on debut and she has been well supported to win again. The David Brideoake-trained filly has been backed from $3.20 into $2.90 and looks well placed to maintain her unbeaten record, despite rising in grade. Leon and Troy Corstens saddle-up two runners, Clean Machine and Yes Baby Yes. Of the duo, I rate Clean Machine the biggest danger to the favourite. She had no luck last start when well backed behind Miss Divine Em and should appreciate the step up to 1200m.
SUGGESTED BET: JENNI’S RAINBOW the win.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
RACE 8: CARLYON STAKES (LISTED, 1000M)
All eyes will be on much-loved mudlark Jungle Edge in the Listed Carlyon Stakes (1000m) as he continues to press his claims for a slot in the TAB Everest. He opened $6, eased to $7 and has subsequently been backed back into $6.50. As usual, the key with Jungle Edge is the weather conditions. If the rain comes, he is a massive winning chance. He has had 36 starts on soft ground for 11 wins and 11 placings and 19 starts on heavy tracks for eight wins and six placings.
SUGGESTED BET: JUNGLE EDGE, a little the win more the place.
ROYAL RANDWICK
RACE 8: WINX STAKES (GROUP 1, 1400M)
Master Of Wine has the race distance versatility that reminds jockey Tommy Berry of all-time great Winx. The Team Hawkes-trained six year-old finished his spring with two straight wins and resumed by winning two on the bounce in the autumn before running fourth in the Queen Elizabeth. There is uncertainty about which direction he will head this spring, but he is right in the market for the Caulfield Cup ($9 favourite), Cox Plate ($11 equal favourite), and Melbourne Cup ($15). Verry Elleegant hasn’t raced since finishing second in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in April and like most of the runners in this field, will be better for the run but does have the class to win first-up.
Star Kiwi mare Melody Belle was slightly underwhelming when finishing sixth first-up behind Eduardo in the Missile Stakes. I am happy to forgive her that run on a heavy track over 1200m, despite the fact, historically, she had ticked off all three boxes. She should improve second-up where she has won three times and her 1400m record is outstanding with five wins from seven attempts. She opened $11 and not long after one punter parted with $4000 on her at that quote. She is now a $12 chance. This race will provide many winners over the spring.
SUGGESTED BET: MASTER OF WINE.