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Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for feature races at The Valley, Caulfield and Rosehill

Punting guru Nick Quinn reckons surprise Makybe Diva Stakes winner Gatting can win again, while speed machine Nature Strip will be hard to beat under lights at The Valley.

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TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at The Valley, Caulfield and Rosehill this weekend.

QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS

BEST BET: Gem Song (Rosehill, Saturday R4, No.3)

VALUE BET: Gatting (Caulfield, Sunday, R7, No.7)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Zoustyle (Caulfield, Sunday, R8, No.9)

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Gatting caused a boilover in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start. Can he repeat the dose in the Underwood Stakes? Picture: AAP
Gatting caused a boilover in the Makybe Diva Stakes last start. Can he repeat the dose in the Underwood Stakes? Picture: AAP

THE VALLEY (Friday night)

RACE 7: MOIR STAKES (1000m)

Nature Strip was sent around a hot favourite in the Concorde Stakes when he resumed from a spell. The tactics on that occasion didn’t work as they attempted to take a sit to ensure that he was strong late, unfortunately for backers it had the opposite effect and instead of being able to use his blistering speed, he over-raced and faded to finish out of the placings. He returns to The Valley, where he has won twice, and looks the runner to beat.

Nature Strip had been all the rage for the Moir in the earlier part of the week, firming from $2.80 into $2.30 prior to the final field, including one pre-post bet of $6650 at $2.80. He reopened $2.50 after the barrier draw and has subsequently drifted to $2.75.

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

The fear is that he will be crossed early and therefore vulnerable, however, he has a strong record from the draw. Nature Strip has won the past two times he has jumped from barrier one. Those victories include the Group 2 McEwen Stakes at The Valley and the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield.

If Nature Strip can find the lead and settle in the first four, he’ll be hard to beat. The early firmers since the barrier draw have been Trekking, who opened $9, got out to $10 and has been backed into $7.50. At longer odds, Miss Leonidas has been $51 into $34.

SUGGESTED BET: NATURE STRIP the win.

Nature Strip has a good record at The Valley. Picture: AAP
Nature Strip has a good record at The Valley. Picture: AAP

ROSEHILL (Saturday)

GOLDEN ROSE STAKES (1400m)

This is a mouth-watering edition of the Group 1 Golden Rose. On Monday morning, the market had Bivouac and Exceedance equal favourites at $3.50. Since the barrier draw, the money has come for Bivouac, who is now $3.10 after getting into $3, while Exceedance is $4.60. Bivouac has enjoyed a tremendous campaign with a strong win at Caulfield in the Vain Stakes and he returned to prominence with a strong win in the Run To The Rose. I would be surprised if the winner came outside the top three in the market who ran the trifecta in the Run To The Rose, where Yes Yes Yes was runner-up with Exceedance third.

SUGGESTED BET: BIVOUAC the win.

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CAULFIELD (Sunday)

UNDERWOOD STAKES (2000m)

Punters are stepping into much-loved veteran Hartnell in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes. Hartnell opened $6 and has been backed into $4.80 after getting as low as $4.20. He is on the second line of betting behind Homesman, who has eased from $2.50 to $2.80. Hartnell is an absolute star, but he has won once from his past 15 starts and is now nine-years-old. I think it is worth looking around him. The runner who may be on speed and win again is Gatting. Gatting caused a monster boilover at Flemington last start when winning the Makybe Diva Stakes but again looks hard to toss.

SUGGESTED BET: GATTING each-way.

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Original URL: https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/nick-quinn-expert-tips-and-betting-analysis-for-feature-races-at-the-valley-caulfield-and-rosehill/news-story/167b93874d4c142cbc705b5826da6137