Melbourne Cup 2018: Michael Manley and Nick Quinn try to pick the trifecta

IT’S one of punting’s great challenges — picking the Melbourne Cuptrifecta — and Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley and the TAB’s Nick Quinn are adamant they’re up for the challenge.

IT’S one of punting’s great challenges — picking the Melbourne Cup trifecta — and Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley and the TAB’s Nick Quinn are adamant they’re up for the challenge.

The two avid punters have joined forces to break down the Melbourne Cup field in their quest to find the winner and the trifecta for racing’s holy grail.

TOP PICKS: WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE TIPPING

MELBOURNE CUP FORM GUIDE: FIND A WINNER

MICHAEL

We’re back again for our popular and critically acclaimed annual Melbourne Cup preview. In all seriousness though, we’ve had success before on this page. Last year we were around the mark but didn’t nail it. Hopefully we can bounce back this year. What are your thoughts, Nick?

NICK

You’ve got to say the barrier draw has spiced the race up. No horse has started under $5 since 2010 when So You Think was all the rage and he ran a brave third to Americain. I anticipate Yucatan will continue to drift as there hasn’t been a lot of success from barrier 23.

MICHAEL

What could he get out to?

NICK

Yucatan has been $4.20 out to $5 since the barrier draw already. Fiorente started a $7 favourite when he won in 2013 and we could see him get out to those odds.

MICHAEL

That’s going to be interesting. Lloyd (Williams) says he doesn’t worry too much about punting these days, and why would he? I’m guessing his son Nick and the other wealthy cohorts in the race though might have a different approach, so I can’t see him getting out to those odds. If he gets to $6 or more he’s starting to represent value at those odds. Saying that out loud sounds silly but that win in the Herbet Power was extraordinary. You don’t see horses eased down over the last 100m in any race, let alone a Group 2 race fill of talented stayers. He would have won by 10 lengths and then what odds would he be?

NICK

That does sound silly, Michael. That’s the silliest thing you’ve said since you said Richmond would win the 2017 premiership before the season. I see your point and agree. It was one of the most extraordinary wins I’ve ever seen. I really like that form reference going back to Protectionist’s win in 2014. Having said that, I think the Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution is the major danger.

MICK

He could be the horse whose being underestimated. Maybe come 3.05pm on Tuesday we’ve finally realised he’s the best stayer in the world. He’s now won four major staying races in a row including three Group 1 races. I’m again thinking it’s going to be a Lloyd quinella as I think The Cliffsofmoher is the danger.

NICK

I thought he had the Caulfield Cup shot to pieces on the turn and then he only battled falling into third. I cannot see him running the 3200m and I’ll be taking him on.

Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution at a Werribee trackwork session.

MICK

I come from a different perspective, as does Nick Williams who was quite bullish about the prospects of The Cliffsofmoher. He said he’s thriving and he’s a class animal and he was at pains to suggest there’s not much between the pair. So I’m with a Lloyd quinella again. Do you see any of the locals being a factor?

NICK

I don’t, but I hope I’ve proven wrong. I think in a year’s time we’ll be cheering a local horse who is running this time, although he’s an international, but now with Waller — Finche.

MICK

It would be good to see the Anthony Mithen’s Rosemont crew win it. That would be some party. By the way, like you he’s another who I worked with when he was a young journalist and has also moved on to bigger and better things in the racing industry. He’s also a Tigers supporter.

NICK

That’s also like Adam Hamilton, who also moved on to bigger and better things and is a Tiger supporter.

MICK

He was a Tiger for a brief rebellious period, according to him, but he seems to be gravitating back as the Cats slide down the ladder. Do you have a bolter who you like?

NICK

I think the best bolter is a Chestnut Coat. A Japanese runner who simply can’t go a yard if you spit on the track so forget his Caulfield Cup run. He ran well in the Tenno Sho three starts ago. You?

MICK

Scottish galloper Nakeeta ran on strongly for fifth in last year’s Cup which I suggest might be a stronger race. The Moonee Valley Cup was a non-event as he settled a long way back and the track was too firm.

MICK’S TIPS

1.YUCATAN

Next four: The Cliffsofmoher, Avilius, Rostropovich, Best Solution.

Next five: Best Solution, Magic Circle, Muntahaa, Finche, Cross Counter.

TRIFECTA
Flexi Trifecta for $10 – 18.51 per cent

1st: 2,11

2nd: 2,10,11,24

3rd: 1,2,3,5,9,10,11,13,15,23,24

NICK’S TIPS

1.YUCATAN

Next four: Best Solution, Magic Circle, Avilius, Finche

Next five: Cross Counter, Muntahaa, Chestnut Coat, A Prince Of Arran,

Auvray.

TRIFECTA

$10 Flexi trifecta for 2.97 per cent

Box trifecta

1,3,4,5,10,11,13,23