Melbourne Cup 2020 best bets, inside mail at Flemington
The Melbourne Cup is the biggest race of the year but there’s plenty of other races in which punters can make a buck or two on at Flemington. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
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The Melbourne Cup is the biggest race of the year but there’s plenty of other races in which punters can make a buck or two on at Flemington.
MELBOURNE CUP DAY
BEST BET
INGRATIATING (Race 1, No. 1 – $2.30)
The opening favourite of Melbourne Cup Day should be hard to beat. Will have come on from his impressive debut win a month ago. Stick with him.
NEXT BEST
AIN’TNODEELDUN (Race 5, No. 2 – $2)
Exciting three-year-old that was spared the tough test of the Derby for this assignment. He charged home to beat Victoria Quay last time out and that filly won the Wakeful Stakes on Saturday. The form is strong.
HOMESMAN (Race 8, No. 1 – $4.80)
Classy galloper that was too good for his rivals in the wet ground first-up at The Valley. He goes up 3kg to 62kg for that run but he’s a Group 1 winner over 1800m that should be hard to hold out again.
CORDILLA (Race 9, No. 15 – $4.40)
Talented mare that should measure up to stakes level after an impressive win at Cranbourne. Her best form is clearly over 1400m and she was an impressive Flemington winner during the winter.
BEST EACH-WAY
HARLEM BLUES (Race 3, No. 4 – $6.50)
This colt spent the winter learning his craft mainly on synthetic tracks but starts his campaign on the turf at Flemington. He improved with racing last time in and bit more maturity will be a plus for this three-year-old on Tuesday.
WILLIAM THOMAS (Race 10, No. 2 – $10)
Hit the line well at Caulfield and The Valley at his last couple of runs and his straight-track form is good. He’ll be able to get to the better ground on the outside in the straight so watch for him late with Damien Oliver aboard.
BEST ROUGHIE
STARCASTER (Race 6, No. 17 – $23)
Trainers Anthony and Sam Freedman might have changed this bloke’s training after he didn’t make the grade as a stayer in winter. He rocketed home late first-up at Geelong and has won a couple second-up. He could finish hard again here.
MELBOURNE CUP TRIFECTA
1ST: 1, 9, 12, 21
2ND: 1, 9, 12, 21
3RD: 1, 5, 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, 21
$10 flexi gives 13.88%
THE QUADDIE
LEG 1:
Tough start with the Melbourne Cup being the first leg. Go wide.
1ST LEG – 1, 9, 12, 13, 21
LEG 2:
Homesman is the top pick with three others for back-up
2ND LEG: 1, 3, 8, 13
LEG 3:
Cordilla tops the reckoning but going a little wider her for insurance.
3RD LEG: 2, 3, 5, 15
LEG 4:
Not an easy finish down the straight. William Thomas can lead the charge.
4TH LEG: 1, 2, 6, 15, 17
CUP OIL
RACE 1:
INGRATIATING (1) did everything right to score down the straight on debut and that experience will be invaluable. He’ll be hard to beat. MARINE ONE (7) is a $500,000 buy that has been well-backed with TAB to roll the favourite.
BET: INGRATIATING to win (Confidence 9/10).
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RACE 2:
JOVIALITY (2) has solid formlines for this. Wasn’t disgraced in the Flight Stakes then narrowly beaten by Forbidden Love, who ran third in the Empire Rose Stakes last Saturday. VANCITY GEM (9) is unbeaten and could measure up.
BET: JOVIALITY to win (Confidence 7/10).
RACE 3:
HARLEM BLUES (4) developed during his winter campaign and the firm track should suit him first-up here. Adelaide horses have been most competitive in the spring and ALLEBOOM (3) should be no exception.
BET: HARLEM BLUES each-way. (Confidence 7/10).
RACE 4:
Hardest race of the day but going with YULONG RISING (10) each-way after a better effort at Caulfield and the 2800m should suit him. YONKERS (8) was too good at Caulfield and will be fitter again for this outing.
BET: YULONG RISING each-way (Confidence 7/10).
RACE 5:
AIN’TNODEELDUN (2) will start short but he’s got that x-factor about him, which will take him a long way, and the form out of his last run stood up in the Wakeful Stakes. Forgive ULTIMATE EDITION (5) for his Geelong run. He went too fast in front and tired.
BET: AIN’TNODEELDUN to win (Confidence 9/10).
RACE 6:
STARCASTER (17) ran on well when resuming at Geelong last time and he’ll be charging again if the pace is on in this longer race. GROUNDSWELL (2) is racing well and will be hard to beat despite drawing wide.
BET: STARCASTER each-way (Confidence 7/10).
RACE 7:
PRINCE OF ARRAN (12) never runs badly in Australia and he’s a chance to finally win a Melbourne Cup. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (1) is world-class and will be hard to hold out.
BET: PRINCE OF ARRAN each-way (Confidence 8/10).
RACE 8:
HOMESMAN (1) was impressive winning first-up and he’s a Group 1 winner over 1800m so will be hard to run down. ODEON (13) won this race three years ago and is an each-way chance again.
BET: HOMESMAN to win (Confidence 8/10).
RACE 9:
CORDILLA (15) is a mare on the up and was a dominant winner at Cranbourne last time out. MUSIC BAY (5) hit the line well at Geelong first-up and is an each-way chance again.
BET: CORDILLA to win (Confidence 8/10).
RACE 10:
WILLIAM THOMAS (2) has done his best work late at each of his three runs this time in and should find the best part of the track late in the race. REDOUBLE (1) did well in the rich Kosciuszko in Sydney first-up and should run well again.
BET: WILLIAM THOMAS each-way (Confidence 8/10).