Melbourne Cup 2016: Peter ‘The Ghost’ Ellis adamant fortune favours the Brave in the big race

LESSONS learned by Irish trainer Willie Mullins from near misses in Melbourne Cups can be rewarded with a victory by Wicklow Brave, says leading form analyst Peter Ellis.

LESSONS learned by Irish trainer Willie Mullins from near misses in previous Melbourne Cups can be rewarded with a victory by Wicklow Brave.

In 2013 the stable’s Simenon finished a luckless fourth to Fiorente while many considered Max Dynamite a certainty beaten when a fast-closing second to Prince Of Penzance last year.

Mullins pinpointed Wicklow Brave as a prospective Melbourne Cup winner when he ran second in England’s richest staying handicap The Ebor at York, over 2800m, in August last year.

He followed up with thirds in the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2800m) at The Curragh and Group 2 Champions’ Cup (3200m) at Ascot and was put aside after having two starts over hurdles.

When he finished fourth behind Big Orange at his third outing this campaign in the Goodwood Cup over 3200m late in July, Mullins felt Wicklow Brave was on target. That view was further confirmed when the eight-year-old was a solid third over 3300m in the Lonsdale Cup at York three weeks later.

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A start in the Melbourne Cup was clinched when Wicklow Brave scored over Order of St George — the original topweight in the race that is now stopping the world — in the Irish St Leger on September 11.

Interestingly Wicklow Brave will be attempting to become the first winner of the Melbourne Cup since 1993 hero Vintage Crop, who was a dual Irish St Leger winner, to have not had a lead-up race in Australia.

Frankie Dettori, who was aboard Max Dynamite last year, joined forces with Wicklow Brave in the St Leger and will be aboard again.

Dettori has been riding in brilliant fashion and has a history of overcoming wide barriers. He should be able to place the gelding in a striking position around midfield despite drawing the extreme outside barrier.

With there being no doubt about Wicklow Brave staying the trip, Dettori should be able to bring his mount with a strong finishing burst over the last 300m.

THE CHALLENGERS

Heartbreak City, Hartnell and Jameka seem to be the runners standing between Mullins and a Melbourne Cup win.

Like Dettori, Heartbreak City’s jockey Joao Moreira will have to overcome an outsides barrier after drawing 23. However nine cup winners in the last 40 years have come from 20 or wider, so it may not be a major problem.

Heartbreak City can be expected to settle towards the rear and has improved since his training has been taken over by top Irish handler Tony Martin.

Over the past 15 months the seven-year-old has gone from winning a 100-rated handicap at York to taking the Ebor with what experts declared as one of the best displays in 20 years.

Another factor in his favour is that York is a very similar circuit to Flemington — flat and left-handed. Providing Moreira can settle Heartbreak City with cover in the early and middle stages he will unleash a powerful and sustained run over the last 600m.

Hartnell heads the list of Godolphin’s five runners. He was beaten six lengths in last year’s cup, but trainer John O’Shea has given him a more thorough preparation this spring.

After winning three races in succession, he has only had his colours lowered by Winx in the Cox Plate.

Note that in the past decade; Efficient, Green Moon and Fiorente have won the cup after being beaten in the Cox Plate.

A winner over 3200m in England, Hartnell has drawn barrier 12 and James McDonald should be able to place him to advantage.

Caulfield Cup winner Jameka has also drawn favourably and she is likely to again have the run of the race.

A winner of the Crown Oaks last spring and second in the Australian Derby in the autumn, Jameka has continued on in fine style this campaign. Against that now that Jameka has received a penalty to 54.5kg, she’ll have to join three-time winner Makybe Diva as the only mare to win carrying more than 53.5kg.

Macca is absolutely certain his Melbourne Cup tip has the measure of the others.

OTHER CHANCES

Oceanographer, Bondi Beach, Exospheric, Big Orange and Almandin are in the next category of possibilities.

Charlie Appleby’s Oceanographer finished nine lengths behind Heartbreak City in the Ebor, but had excuses and has a 7.5kg weight turnaround.

Added to that Oceanographer has thrived Down Under. After being desperately unlucky in the Geelong Cup he produced a whirlwind burst to win the Lexus on Saturday, which has brought him right into contention.

An immature type Bondi Beach went to pieces in the Cup last year, when he finished 16th. However the world’s No. 1 conditioner Aidan O’Brien has brought him along quietly in this preparation. In each of his four subsequent starts Bondi Beach has been ridden quietly which has resulted in two wins and two thirds.

He will be well suited by having the services of the world’s leading jockey Ryan Moore, who is renowned for his patience.

Moore rode another Melbourne Cup contender Exospheric when he thrashed Group 1 winner Simple Verse and Big Orange in the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket in April in the days when he was trained by Sir Michael Stoute.

Later transferred to the Freedmans, Exospheric worked home solidly when third in the Caulfield Cup. He will combine with leading jockey Damien Oliver, who won the 1996 Melbourne Cup for the stable on Doriemus.

A brave fifth last year after working hard in the early stages, Big Orange seems to be a better horse this year, as his all-the-way victories at his last two starts in the Prince Of Wales (2400m) at Newmarket and Goodwood Cup (3200m) would indicate. In his favour he should have a trouble-free run behind the front-running Japanese Curren Mirotic.

A two-year break has not seemed to have done any harm to Almandin judging on his two recent wins. The first of these was in a Listed event over 2400m at Caulfield which led to an authoritative victory in the Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington.

On each occasion he travelled smoothly and appears as a legitimate top 10 chance with Kerrin McEvoy, who won on Brew in 2000, in the saddle.

Genuine challenger: Heartbreak City takes out the Ebor at York in August. Picture: Getty Images

FRINGE DWELLERS

Oceanographer’s stable mate, Qewy, who like Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City has a jumping background, must have claims following his all-the-way win in the Geelong Cup.

On that basis Grey Lion who only failed by a head to overhaul Qewy at Geelong, is worth considering for exotics. It is a credit to his trainer Matt Cumani, whose father Luca has had a frustrating history with the Cup, that he is showing his skills by timing Grey Lion’s preparation perfectly.

Chris Waller cannot be discounted wherever his horses are racing and his representatives Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman have place claims after finishing top-two in the Moonee Valley Cup.

Multiple Group 1-winner Our Ivanhowe found the track against him when sixth in the Caulfield Cup and that may be his problem again.

The odds appear to be against the Japanese entry Curren Mirotic. He is a nine-year-old and no horse of that age has ever won the Melbourne Cup.

Worse still he hasn’t been victorious since November 2013. It is worth noting that he has performed well, even though beaten against some of Japan’s best stayers, with placings in the Tenno Sho Spring and Tenno Sho Autumn.

The Sydney Cup winner Gallante was beaten 13 lengths in the Moonee Valley Cup after being attacked in the lead and would need to lift his game quickly.

Last year’s Sandown Cup winner Almoonqith flashed home when fourth in the Caulfield Cup and he’ll have admirers while Saeed bin Suroor’s Beautiful Romance and Secret Number could take home some of the minor prizemoney.

Beautiful Romance has been competitive in Group One races over 2400m in Europe, while Secret Number who was second in the Queen’s Cup at Flemington last year, was successful over 2000m in Scotland at his only start since.

Peter Ellis is racing analyst for Victoria’s leading trainer, Darren Weir

HAVING A PUNT? CUP DAY BETTING MADE EASY

THE BET

Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City are well over the odds at $21 and $15 respectively and can be backed to win at a level stake.

$25 to win Wicklow Brave

$25 to win Heartbreak City

Box trifecta: 6, 8, 12, 13, 20

$30 = 50 per cent

Box First 4: 6, 8, 12, 13, 20

$20 = 16.66 per cent

SELECTIONS

1 Wicklow Brave (8)

2 Heartbreak City (13)

3 Hartnell (6)

4 Jameka (12)

Frankie Dettori and Wicklow Brave (left) outgun the hot favourite Order Of St George to win the Irish St Leger. Picture: Getty Images

THE QUADDIE

Race 7

While the quadrella may not pay the $496,291 of last year, it is going to be rewarding for those who can pick the four winners. With 24 runners in the cup, it is difficult to break down the number of chances. However the key hopes are Hartnell 6), Wicklow Brave (8), Jameka (12), Heartbreak City (13) and Oceanographer (20). For those wanting to go wider could include Big Orange (1), Bondi Beach (4) and Exospheric (5).

Pick a winner

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Race 8

A winner of six of his ten starts by High Chaparral, Fabrizio (14) looks a standout if there is one. He bolted to the lead in the Epsom two starts back and although he was tiring, he was only beaten three and a half lengths. At his only subsequent outing Fabrizio blitzed a field of handy handicappers over 1600m at Randwick.

The Sheikh Hamdan-owned Tashbeeh (10) shapes the major threat to Fabrizio. He produced three encouraging efforts at stakes level before coming from well back when ninth over 1400m at Flemington. He will obviously be suited by the extra distance.

Godolphin’s Tarquin (13) peaked on his run over 2040m last time out and over the shorter trip from barrier four will have every chance. Cranbourne-trained Plot The Course (17) is a progressive type while Stawell’s Magnapal (7) could be a knockout.

Race 9

The Freedmans won this race two years ago and they could have a double digit winner today in Ruettiger (9). The five-year-old is proven over the straight and when resuming was a luckless sixth behind the classy Our Boy Malachi in a Group 2 over 1000m at Caulfield. Sydneysider Ravi (13) was nailed on the line when resuming at Rosehill and from a wide barrier came from the back to be fourth to subsequent winner Sheidel. A winner at last year’s carnival Secret Agenda (6) won first up before getting too far back after a tardy beginning at Caulfield. Faatinah (1) will appreciate dropping back to listed grade after three runs this preparation at Group 2, including a victory in the Bobbie Lewis over this course and distance. Backmarker Sir Bacchus (11) has acquitted himself well in two starts in Victoria, but from his draw will have difficulties.

Race 10

The Kris Lees-trained Onemorezeta (4) was fourth in the Group 1 Tatt’s Tiara before going for a break and when returning caught the eye when closing against the trend over 1200m at Randwick. She will be better for that run and will get her chance from barrier three with Damien Oliver in the saddle. Another drawn well is the Snowden stable’s Denpurr (13) who has won in stylish fashion in her two runs this time in. Stable mate Artistry (6) has also come back in fine fettle as her second in the Group 3 Nivison at Randwick would testify. Silent Sedation (3) who was narrowly beaten in the Schweppes Oaks (2000m) last season resumed with a determined second to Sheidel over 1200m at Caulfield. Other chances in a hard race are Egyptian Symbol (2) and Rockolicious (7).

WIDE QUADDIE ($100 16.6%)

First Leg: 6,8,12,13,20

Second Leg: 10,13,14,17

Third Leg: 1,6,9,11,13

Fourth Leg: 2,3,4,6,7,13

SKINNY QUADDIE: ($40 50%)

First Leg: 6.8,12,13,20

Second Leg: 14

Third Leg: 1,6,9,13

Last Leg: 3,4,6,13

SELECTIONS

Race 1:

1. Madeenaty (1)

2. Lucky Louie (3)

3. Invincible Star (18)

4. Straviera (14)

Race 2:

1. Sort After (8)

2. Model Dragon (11)

3. Metaphorical (2)

4. Egypt (7)

Race 3:

1. Murphy’s Delight (3)

2. Morning Mix (11)

3. Kinema (1)

4. All I Survey (14)

Race 4:

1. Demonstrate (3)

2. Rageese (1)

3. Sebring Sun (2)

4. Sovereign Nation (4)

5. Magic Boy (7)

Race 5:

1. Biased Witness (3)

2. Speedor (10)

3. Amanaat (12)

4. Dream First (17)

Race 6:

1. Sylpheed (17)

2. My Country (6)

3. Quick Feet (10)

4. Sweet Sherry (3)

Race 7:

1. Wicklow Brave (8)

2. Heartbreak City (13)

3. Hartnell (6)

4. Jameka (12)

Race 8:

1. Fabrizio (14)

2. Tashbeeh (10)

3. Tarquin (13)

4. Plot the Course (17)

Race 9:

1. Ruettiger (9)

2. Ravi (13)

3. Secret Agenda (6)

4. Faatinah (1)

Race 10:

1. Onemorezeta (4)

2. Denpurr (13)

3. Artistry (6)

4. Silent Sedition (3)

BEST BET: Demonstrate

EACH WAY: Ruettiger

LONG SHOT: Tidy Prophet