Mackinnon Stakes: The case for and against each runner

Colette is a definite danger to Zaaki in Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes as Gilbert Gardiner looks at why each runner can and can’t win.

Colette has won her past two starts including the Group 1 Empire Rose. Picture: Michael Klein

Herald Sun racing writer Gilbert Gardiner analyses the $2m Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on Saturday.

1. HOMESMAN (1) – $23

Trainers: Anthony and Sam Freedman. Jockey: Jye McNeil 59kg

HIT: Hard fit and proven Group 1 galloper at 2000m. Drawn to be prominent.

MISS: Zaaki had his measure in the winter.

2. CASCADIAN (2) – $11

Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: Brett Prebble 59kg

HIT: Doncaster winner rallied late to fight out the finish in the Group 1 Cantala Stakes last Saturday. Loses nothing with Prebble replacing James McDonald.

MISS: Doesn’t win out of turn, up 1.5kg on last start and first time at 2000m.

3. SUPERSTORM (10) – $13

Trainer: Danny O’Brien. Jockey: Luke Currie 59kg

HIT: Only time he led the Cantala was on the post. Winning form is good form.

MISS: Better in 1600m range and despite winning last start, the 2000m will be a handful.

4. ZAAKI (8) – $2.40

Trainer: Annabel Neasham. Jockey: James McDonald 59kg

HIT: Was Cox Plate favourite for a reason before race day temperature spike. Wins.

MISS: Not quite as convincing in Melbourne as he has been in Brisbane and Sydney.

5. KEIAI NAUTIQUE (6) – $34

Trainer: Matthew Smith. Jockey: Craig Newitt 59kg

HIT: Group 1 winner in Japan. Slashing fourth at Australian debut three starts back, 0.3 length behind Mo’unga, Verry Elleegant and She’s Ideel in Winx Stakes (1400m).

MISS: Untried on rain-affected ground and no placings in three starts over 2000m.

Superstorm won the Cantala Stakes last week. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

6. DALASAN (3) – $34

Trainers: Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas. Jockey: Craig Williams 59kg

HIT: Third in the Group 1 Epsom two back and then not disgraced in the Cox Plate. Will appreciate returning to Flemington (9: 2-1-0).

MISS: Last win was in a Group 3 in Adelaide in April last year.

7. MO’UNGA (5) – $8

Trainer: Annabel Neasham. Jockey: Hugh Bowman 58.5kg

HIT: Was fancied going into the Cox Plate and not disgraced subsequently. His best wins.

MISS: Four starts the Melbourne way for two minor placings.

8. PRIVATE EYE (9) – $10

Trainer: Joe Pride. Jockey: Nash Rawiller 58.5kg

HIT: Hit the line strongly to win the Epsom Handicap. Forgive last start when cluttered up in traffic. Handles all conditions.

MISS: First time racing south of the Murray River and strikes a hot field.

9. COLETTE (4) – $4.80

Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: Damian Lane 57kg

HIT: Super performance winning the Empire Rose. Drawn perfectly and wetter the better.

MISS: Should be a lot closer to Zaaki in the market.

10. HUNGRY HEART (7) – $10

Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 56.5kg

HIT: Dual Group 1 winner savaged the line to finish third in the Empire Rose. 2000m looks ideal.

MISS: Needs dry ground to show best.

Originally published as Mackinnon Stakes: The case for and against each runner