Hawkesbury tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy is confident Brookspire can kick off her campaign with a win in the Hawkesbury Crown while Ray Thomas expects import Kalapour to make it two from two in Australia.

Brookspire can resume with a win in the Group 3 Hawkesbury Crown. Picture: Grant Guy

THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on an outstanding 10-race program at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 8, No.10: BROOKSPIRE

BEST VALUE

Race 1, No.4: OWEN COUNTY

Race 3, No.10: HARVEY’S WAY

RAY’S BEST

Race 4, No.1: KALAPOUR

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.2: MALKOVICH

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.17: DIVINE BREATH

RACE 1: CLARENDON STAKES (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: Owen County really caught the eye powering to the line winning at his debut at Kembla over this distance on a wet track. He represents value. Invasive is out of the same race and looks big odds for a horse that is very fit and rides the speed. Basquiat is well bred and Chris Waller always runs a nice horse in this race while Master Showman went out hard and did a good job winning here last start.

Ray Thomas: Basquiat, a $1.9 million yearling purchase, was solid on debut when second to North Star Lass on heavy track at Warwick Farm. Nice trial since and has drawn well. Green Shadows is unbeaten in two starts, attacking the line strongly both times. Political Debate ran on well when making his debut finishing second behind a very smart type in Resonator. Makalu is a well-bred colt by Redoute’s Choice who looked above average in a recent barrier trial win.

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)

Dufficy: Extravagent Lad won well on a heavy track first-up last preparation and although he hasn’t officially trialled off a 98-day break this stable has a great record when they bring one up for the Tab Highways. Hardware Lane ran a much better race second-up and back to 1100m should pose him no problems. Proverbial has trialled nicely since her good first-up win. I’m Not Slew is very sharp and was impressive winning a recent Scone trial.

Thomas: There’s a stack of speed in this race. I’m Not Slew is a very fast filly resuming. She was brilliant winning a Scone trial. Overextend ran his rivals ragged at Scone and although he is a bit wayward, he obviously has natural speed and ability. Driving Force charged home to win at Dubbo breaking 56s for 1000m. Tougher here and has to handle the wet track but he is fit and flying. Velorum, who is resuming off an impressive trial win, will get a long way back but the fast tempo suits and should be flying home.

Divine Breath looks a good chance in the Midway Handicap. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: Tough race with plenty of pressure up front. Harvey’s Way doesn’t want it too wet but this race sets up nicely for him as he is sure to be strong late at good odds. Short Shorts appeals back at home, down in grade and with a lightweight but needs plenty of luck from the draw. Highly Desired is very well weighted and should improve while Achira maps well and won’t be far away.

Thomas: Divine Breath ran on well at Randwick and meets French Bonnet better at the weights. She’s third-up and ready to win. Achira drops 6kg on her game fourth at Canterbury behind Smirk. Gets through soft-heavy conditions and will get the right run. She won a Midway three starts back. French Bonnet is a game mare in top form. She handles wet tracks but the wide draw the concern as she did get all the favours at Randwick. Short Shorts was outclassed in the South Pacific Classic but at her previous start she bolted in at Hawkesbury.

RACE 4: BLAKES MARINE HCP (1800m)

Dufficy: Irish import Kalapour could not have been more impressive winning over an unsuitable distance here when having his first run in Australia. He has plenty of weight but I can’t tip against him. Deepstrike and Global Ausbred have both really turned the corner winning their past two starts in great style. Mr Gee has been freshened with a trial and likes the track.

Thomas: Kalapour was very impressive at his Australian debut running down Marnix over 1500m at Hawkesbury. Lightly raced former Irish galloper who won at 2551m overseas. Up to 1800m which suits and Dylan Gibbons’ 3kg claim is a big plus. Global Ausbred is an improving colt and won with authority over 1550m at Canterbury. Races on speed and makes his own luck and should run a strong 1800m. Drops 4kg and handles wet tracks. Deepstrike has won successive starts at Sandown and Caulfield. He’s a determined type and in top form. Shibli was third in the Kalapour race last start and won third-up last preparation.

Authentic Jewel progressed through the grades quickly last campaign and has trialled well ahead of her return. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 5: LIVING TURF HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Plenty of chances here. Authentic Jewel did an amazing job last preparation going right through the grades to run well in the Gosford Guineas. She has won two trials leading in to her return. A Very Fine Red is talented and had excuses with a poor recovery last start. Billiondollarbaby is untapped and any confidence in the market should be respected. Salina Dreaming has a fitness edge and is threatening to win another race.

Thomas: Deep race with many chances. I’m with going A Very Fine Red. She ran a blinder first-up when third to Mazu in the Fireball then she raced without luck in the PJ Bell finishing eighth to Heresy. She was baulked and had to change course a couple of times in the straight. Drawn wide but I like her at each way odds. Authentic Jewel is a brilliant filly resuming. She has won two trials impressively and is drawn to get the right run. Fox Fighter is an underrated sprinter and comes off a super run when third to the promising Athelric at Warwick Farm. Gets back but will be charging home. Rainbow Connection hasn’t raced since running second in the Hawkesbury Guineas at this meeting last year. Looked the goods in a recent Warwick Farm trial win.

RACE 6: HAWKESBURY XXXX GOLD RUSH (1100m)

Dufficy: Malkovich is a very fast horse who should be hard to catch at this distance although he doesn’t want it too heavy. Tycoonist and Eleven Eleven are both good competitors but they just might find the 1100m too sharp while Fituese is a distance specialist who is sure to improve.

Thomas: Malkovich flew in his latest trial at Randwick winning by eight lengths. He can do that but this race sets up nicely for him. He will control the race from the front and will take running down around Hawkesbury. Tycoonist is resuming but has ability and had a very good summer preparation. His recent trial was eye-catching, sprints well fresh and handles wet tracks. Eleven Eleven is a top-class sprinter and trialled very well at Randwick. It’s worth remembering, he ran down Malkovich to win The Warra at Kembla over 1000m back in the spring. Marboosha had to work hard from a wide barrier last start. Drawn awkwardly again but she is a good mare.

Talented gelding Loch Eagle can bounce back from his last start defeat. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 7: HAWKESBURY GUINEAS (1400m)

Dufficy: Loch Eagle is a talented type who wasn’t suited the way the race was run last start. I’m happy to give him another chance with a better tempo here. Mr Mozart has been freshened since putting 2 good wins together and is flying although he’s up 6kg from his last win. Vilana has done nothing wrong and has excelled on the wet tracks. He could well be a horse on the rise. Party For One is going well and the blinkers may help.

Thomas: Loch Eagle tried hard but couldn’t pick up Vilana on a very heavy track in the South Pacific Classic. The race developed into a sprint home at Randwick which didn’t suit Loch Eagle but there is but more pressure in the Guineas. He gets his chance to exact revenge. Vilana is promising, good tactical speed and makes his own luck in races. Mr Mozart is flying this autumn. He loves rain-affected conditions and although coming back slightly in trip he has had a month between runs. Drawn to get his chance. Party For One ran very well behind boom filly Espiona in the Carr Stakes and she should be competitive again.

RACE 8: HAWKESBURY CROWN (1300m)

Dufficy: Brookspire is a nice mare who usually sprints well fresh. She coasted in a recent trial and should be in the finish. Fashchanel resumes off two good wins and won her only start at this track and distance. Mirra Vision finds a good spot from barrier one and had legitimate excuses on the worst part of the track at Newcastle. Wandabaa sets up well in a winnable race for her.

Thomas: Brookspire is a classy mare resuming but she goes well fresh and trialled impressively at Warwick Farm when a close third. She ran second when resuming on a wet track behind Expat at Rosehill last campaign. Wandabaa has had plenty of racing but she is a genuine mare who is very effective on wet tracks. Jump The Broom went back to 1100m at Caulfield last start and they were a bit too sharp for her. That was her first loss in five starts and is better suited at 1300m for the Crown. She is not out of this race. Never Talk is another who has had a good autumn campaign and is very good on wet tracks.

Kosciuszko winner Art Cadeau can add the Hawkesbury Gold Cup to his resume. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1400m)

Dufficy: Impossible race to assess with so many horses failing at their last start here that could easily bounce back so I have to go with the consistency of Art Cadeau who usually puts his best foot forward. Archedemus loves this track and is a big improver going forward here while I’m very wary of horses like Olmedo and Imaging turning their form around.

Thomas: Art Cadeau has put in two blinders this campaign. At his most recent run, he was held up at the top of the straight then charged home when clear for second to Our Playboy at Randwick. Drawn wide and will get back early but with even luck he’s going to be in the finish. Atishu has issues at the barriers but she has been back to the trials since refusing to leave the gates in the Coolmore. She jumped very well in her recent trial and worked to the line nicely late. She is good enough to win this if she breaks cleanly. Kirwan’s Lane has a good second-up record and he’s a very good miler. The Frontman had to work very hard from a wide barrier, making a mid-race move and was trapped three-wide without cover at Randwick in the Our Playboy race. Perfectly drawn here and is the big improver

RACE 10: VOIR GRAND CLASSIC HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: Samoot wasn’t suited up in class and back a little in distance last time. She can lift up to 1300m and has the benefit of the claim for a promising apprentice here. Hard to knock the unbeaten Norwegian Bliss who hasn’t made a mistake in five starts. Suave has had plenty to offer being hard held in two trials while the import Sibaaq should be respected if there is any confidence in the market.

Thomas: Norwegian Bliss is unbeaten in five starts and showed her class winning first-up at Hawkesbury over 1100m. Better suited at 1300m and is the one to beat. Big watch on Sibaaq who makes his Australian debut. Former English miler with a good race record and looked sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial win. Samoot has been scratched a couple of times since running seventh to Emanate at Rosehill. Her win at Canterbury at her previous start when making her Australian debut was very impressive. Latino Blend got a long way back and had to make her run wide out where it was difficult to make ground finishing fifth to Much Much Better. She is over the odds.

SUGGESTED BETS

Shayne O’Cass’ top picks

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 2, No.3: LAOS FORTUNE

Tipped out after finishing down the order on debut behind Clemenceau. Trials this time in suggest a much better outcome for the Snowden Racing gelding.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.2: SHOWTIME LADY

Been ready and raring to go for a little while but has just been waiting for a decent barrier and not bottomless track.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.4: YOUR TEMPTATION

Ran a big race here first-up in a decent quality maiden. Drawn wide but does possess a big finish.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 5,7

Race 6: 1,4,5,8

Race 7: 2

Race 8: 1,4,10

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Blake Spriggs has a great book of rides to add his tally of 72 wins at Newcastle and is our TAB Jockeys Challenge ‘bet’.

CASINO

BEST BET

Race 1, No.2: HYPERTENSION

Only won once in 23 starts (that was on a heavy) but placed seven times, five of them seconds. Finds a winnable race.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.1: INTOREMY

Has probably done enough in her two starts to beat her rivals.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.2: FLYING EUROS

Has won 1 out of 33 but placed 11 times and mostly in better company than what he lines up against here.

Originally published as Hawkesbury tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy best bets and analysis