Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for The Valley on Saturday

The Chris Waller-trained Thalassophile can post a second straight win while an import could spring a surprise at good odds at The Valley on Saturday.

The Chris Waller-trained Thalassophile is capable of posting a second straight win when the filly takes on older mares at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s nine-race card at The Valley.

BEST BET

THLASSOPHILE (Race 6, No.11)

Rewarded for consistency with a strong win at Flemington last time out. She’s up against older mares but could g on with it at The Valley.

VALUE BET

STARCASTER (Race 8, No.10)

Quirky galloper that has plenty of ability on his day. Ran a good third in this race last year and trialled well leading up to his return.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 3, 4, 5, 7/ 3, 4, 6, 8/1, 9, 11, 16/4, 6, 12, 14

$100 flexi for 31.25 per cent

BIG6

1, 9, 11, 16/4, 6, 12, 14/2, 11/3, 6, 9, 11/2, 10, 14/1, 11

$100 flexi for 13.02 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 6: 2, 9, 11, 13

Race 7: 3, 6, 9, 11

Race 8: 2, 10, 12, 14

Race 9: 1, 2, 11, 14

$100 flexi 185.18 per cent

Mornington trainer Clayton Douglas will reproduce Epic Centre as a gelding at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images

RACE 1: 12:45PM DOMINANT CLEANIING SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (2040m)

A small field to start what looks like a tough day for punters at The Valley. Giving D’AGUILAR (1) another chance after a solid effort pushing into the wind at Flemington last start. He’s a Valley winner and can bounce back. NOT USUAL GLORIOUS (2) led and fought on well to win at Caulfield and will lead for a long way here. MOHICAN HEIGHTS (3) will be fitter for two runs back and his last start at Flemington was promising. MR PICKWICK (6) is racing consistently and is a winner over this trip.

SUGGESTED BET: D’Aguilar to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Prince of Helena $10 – $5

RACE 2: 1:20PM LUNA HAND CARE HANDICAP (955m)

EPIC CENTRE (5) could be ready to improve sharply after being gelded during his time off. He was close-up in the Ballarat clockwise race before doing a lot wrong down the straight. His two jumpouts leading up to this have been excellent. SHALAMAN (4) was a strong first-up winner at Cranbourne and should get every chance. ALPHA ONE (1) has won both starts this time in and will be competitive again. THE GUAVA (2) was a fighting winner at Morphettville and races well on soft ground.

SUGGESTED BET: Epic Centre each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Keysborough $5.50 – $5.

RACE 3: 1:55PM LADBROKES MATES MODE HANDICAP (955m)

Tricky two-year-old fillies’ race but WRITTEN SWOOSH (4) was a touch unlucky not to score on debut in a Blue Diamond Preview in January and has had more time to develop. Expecting her to show up fresh. NIXIE (6) is big odds but was OK behind the smart Flemington winner Giga Kick last time and is hard-fit. BIE’RES (8) was another that wasn’t disgraced down the straight on debut and will be better for that experience. VA VIA (3) is consistent and can show up fresh.

SUGGESTED BET: Written Swoosh to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: She’s Amore $8 – $6.50.

The Problem With will have blinkers for the first time when he competes at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 2:30PM DOMINANT PLANT POWERED CLEANING HANDICAP (2040m)

Possibly the toughest race of the day with several exciting types engaged here. MATHEW (11) is one of those types after an easy maiden win in heavy ground at Ballarat. He’s up in trip for this and could go on with it despite rising in class. SHOCK ‘EM OVA (9) bolted in on debut at Cranbourne and looks capable of measuring up to this even contest. FREEDOM ESCAPE (1) ran on well but just missed when running on well at Flemington last time out and is ready for the step to 2040m. PERMUTATION (16) finished on Freedom Escape’s heels at Flemington and will run well again.

SUGGESTED BET: Mathew to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Mathew $6.50 – $4.80.

RACE 5: 3:10PM EASY FOAM HAND WASH HANDICAP (2500m)

Another staying race that has plenty of chances. Happy to play THEMOONLIGHTGAMBLER (14) each-way at his first crack at 2500m after solid efforts at his last two runs. He’ll be thereabouts with only 52.5kg on his back after Will Price’s claim. FERAGO (12) is racing consistently and ran well behind talented stayer Teewaters at Caulfield last Saturday. MIMI’S AWARD (6) is racing well and drops in class for this contest. RUDHYAR (4) scored comfortably at Sandown last time out and will step up in this.

SUGGESTED BET: Themoonlightgambler each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Rudhyar $5.50 – $4.20

RACE 6: 3:50PM MIA KLEER HAND SANITISER HANDICAP (1600m)

The first leg of the quaddie is a tricky fillies and mares’ contest but happy to have THLASSOPHILE (11) on top after her excellent effort at Flemington last time out. A wet track wouldn’t worry her and she’s hard-fit after competing through winter. KURABUI (9) improved at Sandown second-up and has blinkers on for this. RUSUTSU (13) ran on well when giving the winner 4kg at Flemington last start and Jamie Kah goes on for this. AMERICAIN ANGEL (2) is consistent and won’t be far away again.

SUGGESTED BET: Thlassophile to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Pitchanun $7.50 – $6

Starcaster can cause a minor upset when the Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained import resumes at The Valley on Saturday. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 7: 4:30PM LADBROKES HANDICAP (1600m)

Good three-year-old race with many chances. THE PROBLEM WITH (11) is worth a small each-way ticket after his two runs back from a spell, which produced a win at Donald and a fighting second at Cranbourne. Blinkers should help him improve. EL CORDOBES (6) has a tricky gate but is hard-fit and is coming off a solid Flemington effort. SACHEM (9) comes out of the same race as El Cordobes and should run well. JIMMY THE BEAR (3) tried hard over 1400m and should be suited at 1600m.

SUGGESTED BET: The Problem With each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: Jimmy The Bear $4.60 – $4.20.

RACE 8: 5:05PM RANVET TRAVIS HARRISON CUP (1600m)

STARCASTER (10) could produce a first-up surprise in this. He was close-up when third in this race last year before producing a consistent campaign. He trialled well enough to show he’s in for another good preparation. JUSTCANTA (2) got a long way back at Caulfield last start but has drawn a bit better for this. TAVIDANCE (12) hit the line well over 1400m second-up and is suited over this trip. CHIEF ALTONY (14) is consistent and will be prominent with only 51.5kg after the claim.

SUGGESTED BET: Starcaster each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Chief Altony $3.10 – $2.70

RACE 9: 5:40PM DOMINANT.COM.AU HANDICAP (1200m)

The sprinters finish off a big day at The Valley with HOME RULE (11) capable of ending the day on a high for the punters. He has drawn wide but will roll forward and should fight out the race well. DIAMONDS INTHE SKY (14) is another with a tricky gate but she ran well behind Squid Game last time out and drops in class. GOLD SPARK (1) wasn’t far away first-up and has an excellent second-up record. WHIPCRACKER WAY (2) is consistent and will enjoy the class drop.

SUGGESTED BET: Home Rule to win.

TAB MARKET MOVER: Condo’s Express $15 – $12.