Early Oil: Tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday
King Of Sparta can repeat his Bletchingly Stakes win in Saturday’s $200,000 Aurie’s Star Handicap at Flemington.
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Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Aurie’s Star Handicap meeting at Flemington.
BEST BET
KING OF SPARTA (Race 5, No. 3)
Fought on well to win the Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield. He’ll tackle the straight on Saturday but there’s no reason he can’t show his quality again.
VALUE BET
RIGEL STAR (Race 4, No. 7)
Better effort when not far away at Geelong second-up and will be fitter for this. He’s drawn to race down the outside rail, which could be the best place down the straight.
EARLY QUADDIE
2, 6, 8, 9/4, 7, 13, 18/2, 4, 8, 9, 15/2, 3, 5
$100 flexi for 41.66 per cent
BIG6
2, 4, 8, 9, 15/2, 3, 5/4, 5, 6/4, 5, 6, 7/1, 4, 6/7, 8, 10
$100 flexi for 6.17 per cent
QUADDIE
Race 6: 4, 5, 6
Race 7: 4, 5, 6, 7
Race 8: 1, 4, 6
Race 9: 7, 8, 10
$100 flexi for 92.59 per cent
RACE 1: 12:10PM VRC MEMBER DAMIAN CUBELA PLATE (1410m)
The three-year-old start what should be a great day’s racing at Flemington. Going with the Maher / Eustace-trained PALAGGIO (7) to begin the day with a win. He travelled well up front and won like a promising type on debut. He switches to turf for this but he looks a smart type. BERKERLEY SQUARE (4) was unlucky at Caulfield first-up and the senior jockey goes on. BLAKMAX (5) has started his career in consistent fashion and run well again. MICHELOTTI (1) has found winning form on wet tracks at his last two runs and is worth thought.
SUGGESTED BET: Palaggio to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Berkeley Square $2.80 – $2.50
RACE 2: 12:45PM VILLA PARADISO (1410m)
This is an interesting race for mares but giving NIGHT PASSAGE (2) a chance to post a first-up win. She usually runs well fresh and has a strong record over 1400m. She has won two jumpouts leading up to this and should get every chance. DEFIANT DIVA (6) ran on well to score second-up and could go on with it here. MRS SIPPY (9) was nabbed late at Caulfield last start and is racing consistently now. STARLIGHT SCOPE (8) will be fitter for three runs back from a spell and is worth thought.
SUGGESTED BET: Night Passage each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Mrs Sippy $11 – $8.
RACE 3: 1:20PM VRC SEASON PREMIERE SPRINT (1100m)
A big field will charge down the straight in this Benchmark 70 contest. Looking to back two horses here. RIGEL STAR (7) will be much fitter after two solid runs this time in and will be thereabouts if the outside section of the track is superior. If it’s the inside, VERANSKOVA (13) will be extremely hard to hold out after a narrow first-up defeat. CANTINA (18) ran on well to score at Cranbourne and will be improve. BIG APPLE (4) got the money at Caulfield last time out and will run well again.
SUGGESTED BET: Back both Rigel Star and Veranskova to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Veranskova $5 – $4.
RACE 4: 1:55PM THE RIVERSIDE (2000m)
Another big field engaged in this 2000m contest but MAXIMUS PRIME (3) should have every chance and will be better for his last-start second over 2000m at Caulfield. He’s ready to win. BLUE CUP (2) raced with over this course second-up and drops a couple of grades for this. PROTECTION MONEY (8) ran on well at his first run for more than a year last time and should be significantly improved with that run under his belt. THE AWESOME SON (15) is ready for this trip after a narrow second over 1800m at Sandown.
SUGGESTED BET: Maximus Prime to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Blue Cup $6 – $4.40.
RACE 5: 2:35PM GROUP 3 AURIE’S STAR HANDICAP (1200m)
A small field will contest this year’s Aurie’s Star Handicap. Going with KING OF SPARTA (3) to build on his fighting Bletchingly Stakes win at his first run down the straight. STAGEMAN (2) has a terrific record in Perth and will be one of the toughest to beat here first-up. SIRIUS SUSPECT (4) scored down the straight last start and is always competitive on this course. SHOOTING FOR GOLD (5) comes down from Queensland with good form so keep an eye on the betting for a lead.
SUGGESTED BET: King Of Sparta to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: King Of Sparta $2.90 – $2.70
RACE 6: 3:15PM THE PARADE LOUNGE (1620m)
HE’S OUR BONNEVAL (4) will enjoy the class drop from Benchmark 100 to Benchmark 84 level at Flemington. He’s ready for 1620m now after two good efforts over 1400m to start his campaign. HERE TO SHOCK (6) was well ridden to score at Caulfield last start and has drawn well here. CASHIN’ CHEX (8) is racing in great form in Adelaide and should measure up to this level. LYRICAL LAD (5) ran on well but just missed at Caulfield last time out and should run well despite the distance drop.
SUGGESTED BET: He’s Our Bonneval to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Here To Shock $4.40 – $3.50
RACE 7: 3:55PM THE ROSE ROOM (2530m)
A few chances in the day’s staying feature but TEEWATERS (4) appeals as the stayer on the rise after his easy win at Caulfield second-up. The form stood up when Ferago, the third horse in the Caulfield race, won at The Valley last Saturday. He ran third in the Victoria Derby over this course last spring and will continue to improve. HIGH EMOCEAN (7) caught the eye with her first-up third and will be fitter. HORRIFYING (5) will roll forward and could be hard to run down if he gets things his way. DAWN PATROL (1) will be fitter for his fair first-up run.
SUGGESTED BET: Teewaters to win
TAB MARKET MOVER: Teewaters $3.10 – $2.70
RACE 8: 4:30PM THE SKYLINE LOUNGE (1410m)
NICOLINI VITO (4) showed plenty of fight to get the money narrowly when resuming over 1200m last time out. He is a 1400m winner and will enjoy a 4kg weight drop for this. WILLIAM THOMAS (6) is ready for another crack at this distance after racing OK in shorter stakes races at his last two runs. MAKRAM (1) took a run to build fitness last time in but keep an eye on the betting on him. WINNING PARTNER (3) will be fitter for three runs back from a spell.
SUGGESTED BET: Nicolini Vito to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Nicolini Vito $2.70 – $2.30
RACE 9: 5:05PM JOCKEYS CELEBRATION DAY SPRINT (1100m)
Another straight race to finish the day at Flemington. Three smart types will go head-to-head in this race but SQUID GAME (7) has a slight edge with plenty of straight track experience under his belt. FIRE (10) won well first-up and will be fitter for that and drops to 54kg. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (9) impressed with her first-up win and should be fine down the straight. BALTIMORE BULLET (11) showed plenty of talent last time in and has had more time to develop.
SUGGESTED BET: Squid Game to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Fire $2.40 – $2.25.
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