Early Oil: Best bets, analysis for Flemington, race times, betting

Haunting’s third placing behind subsequent Goodwood winner last start in Adelaide reads well for his chances at Flemington, according to leading form analyst Michael Manley. BEST BET, INSIDE MAIL

Haunting’s third placing behind subsequent Goodwood winner last start in Adelaide reads well for his chances at Flemington, according to leading form analyst Michael Manley.

BEST BET

HAUNTED (R7, No. 5)

VALUE BET

MAIN STAGE (R6, No. 8)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,4,7,12/4,6,7,9,13,14/1,3,7,8/2,6,10,13,17

$100 flexi for 20.83%

BIG 6

1,3,8/2,10,13,17/5,6,8,9,10/5,6/2,12/1,17

$100 flexi for 20.83%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 5,6,8,9,10,18

Race 7: 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,11

Race 8: 2,12,16

Race 9: 1,3,4,17

$100 flexi for 17.36%

WEEKEND BEST BETS: WHO TO BACK AT THE TRACK

RACE 1: 11.35AM NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST TROPHY (1200M)

SEBRAKATE (1) can boast a close second to subsequent Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi last November at his second start. He looked strong winning a 800m jump-out easily recently. James Cummings’ first starter ARCHERY BUTTS (2) also showed speed in a recent Flemington jump-out. ST EDWARDS CROWN (7) finished on strongly running the fourth fastest last 200m for the day when second to High Excalabration at Seymour at his debut. Tony McEvoy’s first starter NIGHT PASSAGE (10) has shown ability in trials. MIAMI BOUND (9) is bred more on staying lines but she also looked good in a recent jump-out.

SUGGESTED BET: SEBRAKATE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

RACE 2: 12.10PM DONATE TO NJTAPPEAL.COM.AU TROPHY (1600M)

FIDELIA (1) takes on the boys after two impressive but contrasting wins against her own at this track. Two starts ago she had to swoop home to win over 1400m and then last week she came from off the speed but hit the front a long way out but kept going to the line strongly over 1600m. She carries the same weight of 58kg as she did last week. ORCEIN (7) dead-heated here two starts ago over 1720m and then ran well when fifth behind Tarwin. John Moloney’s ADVERSARY (4) has won his past two starts impressively and he should again get a good run on the speed. Best roughie couId be I’M DUN DREAMIN’ (12) who worked home well when first-up at Caulfield and blinkers go on first time. Numerous other chances headed by ASGARD MASSIF (5), TOWER ROAD (9), MUSWELLBROOK (2), and BLINDER (3).

SUGGESTED BET: FIDELIA THE WIN.

TAB MARKET MOVER: 1 — Fidelia $2.60-$2.20 ($1,326 @ $2.60, $1,500 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.50 MULTIPLE TIMES, $400 @ $2.50, $330 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.40, $350 @ $2.40, $2,600 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.20, $300 @ $2.20)

Fidelia charges to victory in the So You Think Hall of Fame Trophy.

RACE 3: 12.45PM LUCRF SUPER HANDICAP (1100M)

EURACK (9) won her first four starts in brilliant fashion but didn’t get going last preparation. She’s now back with her original trainer and she looks like she’s back to her best judging on her third in a strong Cranbourne barrier trial. Another emerging sprinter is CELTIC BLAST (6) whose only loss from his last five starts was when he dumped his rider two runs ago in Adelaide. He carried a big weight and took over with 500m to go when successful last start at Sandown Hillside holding off DEEP EUPHORIA (14). PARSIFAL (4) is another with winning form. He’s had three starts for Will Clarken in Adelaide and won them all impressively. SATORI (7) is fitter for good first-up third. CLEAR SIGNAL (13) won his last three starts last winter on the Geelong Synthetic and resumes for Danny O’Brien.

SUGGESTED BET: EURACK EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVER: 8 — Fill The Flute $10-$5.50 ($250 e/w @ $10/$3.50, $200 x $150 e/w @ $9/$3.30, $500 @ $8.50, $300 @ $8, $400 @ $6 TWICE)

16 — I’m Telling Ya $41-$23

RACE 4: 1.25PM TAB SUPPORT NATIONAL JOCKEYS TRUST TROPHY (1600M)

ODEON (1) hasn’t won for ages but he’s maintained his form and he tends to save his best for Flemington. In a race where there is a query on the speed Craig Williams is sure to have him in a forward position. Lightly raced mare ANOTHER DOLLAR (8) ran home strongly for close-up fourth over 1400m at Flemington behind the in-form Fastnet Tempest. She’s had two second-up runs for a first and a second. She’s a Queensland Oaks runner-up and the step up to 1600m will suit even better. STRATEGIC DEMAND (7) also rocketed home in that race at Flemington to finish third. Can’t fault GUIZOT’s (3) form with strong wins at Warrnambool and at Caulfield at his last two starts. LIAPARI (2) and SPUNLAGO (10) also chances.

SUGGESTED BET: ODEON EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVER: 1 — Odeon $5.50-$4.20; 8 — Another Dollar $4.80-$3.80 ($600 x $500 e/w @ $4.80/$1.95, $1,500 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.20, $333 @ $4)

Bandipur (blue silks) always races well down the straight.

RACE 5: 2.05PM PFD FOOD SERVICES HANDICAP (1400M)

Lightly raced SHAMAL LASS (17) looks a filly going places. She stretched a smart horse at her second start when she finished second behind the talented Harbour Views at Warrnambool. She then strolled in with her maiden by three and a half lengths at Donald when she toyed with her rivals. She’ll go back from her outside draw and look for her to swoop home. FABRIC (10) finished a slightly unlucky third behind Fidelia at Sandown Hillside and then had no luck behind that filly at Flemington last start. NEIGHBOURHOOD (13) is another lightly raced filly who followed her win at Cranbourne with a second at Flemington behind Fidelia. ARISTOCRATIC MISS (2) was well ridden to score at Sandown Hillside last start and she will again have the advantage of a three kilos claim by Chelsea MacFarlane. PERSUADER (3) put together back to back stakes wins this distance last spring at Flemington and then at Sandown. VANUATU (6) is a promising filly.

SUGGESTED BET: SHAMAL LASS EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

RACE 6: 2.45PM HERITAGE FINANCE HANDICAP (1800M)

MAIN STAGE (8) returned to form when he swept home to win over 1800m at Sandown Hillside last start. His jockey Michael Walker suggested that’s his distance and he remains at it. He’s also a winner this track over it. He ran his last 400m in 22.66 seconds which included a 200m split of 10.68 seconds behind the 400m and the 200m of 10.68 seconds which was the fastest for the meeting. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (18) tried hard when he finished second to the classy Mr Quickie at Caulfield last start and he drops five kilos on that run. Stablemates DR DRILL (9) and SIR PIPPIN (6) both finished on well off a slow tempo for close-up fourth behind Sunday Pray over 1600m here last start and will be better suited by 1800m. GOLD MAG (10) finished second in that race but has to contend with the outside barrier.

SUGGESTED BET: MAIN STAGE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVER: 8 — Main Stage $13-$14-$7.50 ($250 e/w @ $14/$4.80, $600 @ $13, $300 @ $13, $370 @ $8.50, $500 @ $7.50)

RACE 7: 3.25PM HILTON NICHOLAS STRAIGHT SIX (1200M)

The race should set up well for HAUNTED (5) who will also have the benefits of having Craig Williams on. He followed impressive Caulfield win over 1200m with an unlucky third behind subsequent Goodwood winner Despatch over 1100m at Morphetville last start. His stablemate BANDIPUR (1) always races well down the straight and he may now be looking for 1200m after his fourth last Saturday behind Moonlover. MILWAUKEE (6) made it three wins from starts this track and distance when narrow winner here last start in a Benchmark 84. BEL SONIC (11) was held up for a run in the closing stages in that race finishing an unlucky seventh. ORDER OF COMMAND (4) also races well here and he returned to form with his win at Caulfield last start. DIVINE QUALITY (3) loves the straight. MANOLO BLAHNIQ (2) should also finish powerfully.

SUGGESTED BET: HAUNTED THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

Steel Prince meets Surprise Baby 6kgs worse off but is a classy individual.

RACE 8: 4.05PM THE ANDREW RAMSDEN (2800M)

Two exciting stayers STEEL PRINCE (2) and SURPRISE BABY (12) appeal as the two main chances. Surprise Baby will meet Steel Prince six kilos better for their last clash when he finished third behind him but this race should set up differently. Steel Prince has won his last four starts and he had to fight hard to win last start as he sat outside the leader and then was left in front a long way out. He should get a great run from barrier 3 behind the Gai Waterhouse pair of RUNAWAY (11) and TRANSACT (18). Also Damien Oliver replaces apprentice Michael Poy. SHEEZDASHING (16) ran on strongly for second in the Warrnambool Cup behind Furrion and 2800m should suit. INSTIGATOR (10) also finished on for fourth in that race. ROCKARRAL (14) ran on for fourth behind Steel Prince.

SUGGESTED BET: STEEL PRINCE THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVER: 1 — Eastender $16-$13 ($400 x $100 e/w @ $16/$4.60, $500 @ $15, $200 e/w @ $15/$4.20, $250 e/w @ $13/$3.70)

12 — Surprise Baby $3.30-$2.50 ($500 @ $3.30, $300 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3, $1,000 x $500 e/w @ $2.90/$1.50, $750 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.50, $350 @ $2.50)

RACE 9: 4.40PM FURPHY ALE PLATE (1100M)

ANJANA (1) boasts strong form to win this. Last start she finished sixth in the Sangster Stakes behind Spright and produced the second fastest closing sectionals. She has had one start this track and distance for a win at Listed level four starts ago. RICH ITCH (17) was unlucky at his last start as he was held up for a run for most of the race when he finished fifth behind POISED TO STRIKE (3) and MUMBLES (9). JAY JAY D’AR (12) finished fourth in the race and also was held up for a run. NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (5) has been impressive winning his three starts. AKKADIAN (4) was beaten by a smart horse in William Thomas at Caulfield last start.

SUGGESTED BET: ANJANA THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note