David Payne isn’t foxing when he says his underrated gelding can win
Fox Fighter may not have the support of bookmakers but trainer David Payne warned punters not to let him under their guard.
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The maestro David Payne is bemused underrated Fox Fighter is again friendless in betting for the Living Turf Handicap (1100m) at Hawkesbury on Saturday.
Fox Fighter is at $17 in latest betting despite some strong form around boom young sprinters Mazu and Athelric this autumn.
“Fox Fighter is always over the odds, it’s unbelievable,” Payne said.
“His last start third to Athelric at Warwick Farm was very good, his sectionals would have been one of the fastest of the day.
“He goes on top of the ground and wet tracks, and he never runs a bad race. His only poor run was when he was hit on the knee by a ‘shoe’ two starts back.
“Fox Fighter is really well and he will be competitive, I’m confident he will run well.”
Payne is also saddling up Obvious Step in the Midway Handicap and Field Commander in the Clarendon Stakes (1400m) - and both are at generous odds.
“Obvious Step improves the deeper she goes into a campaign,” Payne said.
“Her run the other day was better than it looked because she had 61kg and was held up for a run. It’s hard to accelerate on these wet tracks when that happens.
“Field Commander is looking for further but I’ve put the blinkers on him and I’m hoping he can run an improved race.”
THE BEST BARRIERS
The best barriers at Hawkesbury for the last 3 years (in order of wins)
1100m: N/A
1300m: 4,1,2,5
1400m: 1,6,2,5
1500m: 1,4,3,5
1600m: 2,5,9,1
1800m: 3,6,2,7
THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS
Race 1: Basquiat $11-$7-$5 with bets of $1,000 e/w at $8/$2.70, $500 at $7 twice, Owen County $15-$10
Race 2, No big bets or market movements of note
Race 3, Highly Desired $12-$10
Race 4, Kalapour $6-$2.90-$2.50 after consistent support including bets of $900 e/w at $6/$2.30, $1,000 at $5, $1,400 at $4.20, $500 at $3.80, $1,000 e/w at $3.70/$1.70, $1,500 at $3.60, $500 at $3.20, $1,000 at $3, $1,000 at $2.80, Get The Idea $15-$12
Race 5, Authentic Jewel $10-$5.50-$4.80
Race 6, Malkovich $2.70-$2.80-$2.50-$2.25 with bets of $1,117 at $2.80, $2,120 at $2.50, $1,050 at $2.50, $900 at $2.50, $800 at $2.50, $500 at $2.50, Tycoonist $5.50-$4.80
Race 7, Mr Mozart $3.90-$3-$2.20 with bets of $500 at $3.90, $1,700 at $3.20, $650 at $3.10, $500 at $3.10, $1,000 at $2.90, $800 at $2.80, $2,170 at $2.70, $962 at $2.60
Race 8, Brookspire $4.20-$3.40 after bets of $666 at $4.20, $2,500 at $4, $500 at $3.90, $1,060 at $3.80, $1,500 at $3.70, Fashchanel $13-$7.50
Race 9, Archedemus $16-$11-$12, Kirwan’s Lane $8-$6, The Frontman $18-$14-$11
Race 10, Norwegian Bliss $2.90-$3.10-$2.60 with bets of $500 at $3.10, $500 at $3 twice, Samoot $9-$6.50, Grande Rumore $21-$13-$11
EARLY QUADDIE
Race 3: 1,14,16,17
Race 4: 1,11
Race 5: 2,6,8,11
Race 6: 1,2,5,6
QUADDIE
Race 7: 1,5,6
Race 8: 3,10,12,15
Race 9: 8,10,11,13
Race 10: 3,7,8,13
PRICE CHECK
Kalapour (race 4) is the best-backed runner at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting, firming from $6 to $2.50 after consistent support including bets of $900 each way at $6/$2.30, $1,000 at $5, $1,400 at $4.20, $1,000 each way at $3.70/$1.70, $1,500 at $3.60, $1,000 at $3 and $1,000 at $2.80.
TRIAL POINTERS
Eleven Eleven (race 6) has the dual honour of being both the highest rated horse racing at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting (108) and the highest prizemoney winner on the day as well, just over $2.8m thanks to his now seemingly annual success at the Magic Millions carnival. In fact, the Greg Hickman trained son of Fastnet Rock picked up another $572,000 at his most recent outing on the Gold Coast when winning the Magic Millions Cup on January 15. Eleven Eleven makes his Hawkesbury debut on Saturday in the aptly named Gold Rush off an eye-catching second in a 1200m heat at Randwick.
Fashchanel (race 8) is already a very valuable mare but will go to a whole new level should she be able to secure some well-earned black-type in Saturday’s Hawkesbury Crown. The John O’Shea trained five-year-old is a daughter of I Am Invincible out of Elegant Fashion who, as well as banking a whopping $6.3m in her career, is a rarity of sorts being a female winner of a Derby - in her case, in Hong Kong. As for O’Shea’s mare, she has been trialling up a storm at home at Randwick in recent weeks and has come up with the dream barrier (2).
SECTIONAL STARS
Owen County (race 1) has all the hallmarks of a future classic star for the renowned classic trainer, John Sargeant. The two-year-old is a son of Triple Crown winner Dundeel out of an Encounter mare, herself out of a mare by Alleged, and is from the same family as renowned stamina influence, Twig Moss. It was no wonder then that Owen Country was so strong at the end of his 1400m debut at Kembla when he stormed down the outside section of the track to win by a half-length but in reality, running away and powering through the line.
Harvey’s Way (race 3) is a Newcastle housed three-year-old with a tidy, developing record. The son of Cox Plate winner Adelaide, has raced seven times so far for two wins and three placings. Everything about the gelding suggests that he will relish the long straight at Hawkesbury in Saturday’s Midway and while he is unplaced on both Heavy track starts, he has performed admirably on Soft going. Looks to peak now after a closing third at Newcastle nine days ago.
BEST BET
Kalapour (race 4) was very impressive at his Australian debut running down Marnix over 1500m at Hawkesbury. Lightly raced former Irish galloper who won at 2551m overseas. Kalapour goes out to 1800m which will suit and Dylan Gibbons’ 3kg claim is a big plus. Promising, lightly-raced five-year-old placed to advantage.
VALUE BET
A Very Fine Red (race 5) ran a blinder first-up when third to Mazu in the Listed Fireball then she raced without luck in the PJ Bell Stakes finishing eighth to Heresy. She was baulked, had to change course a couple of times in the straight and should have finished much closer. Drawn wide but she appeals at each way odds.
THE JUDGMENT
HAWKESBURY
R7: Hawkesbury Guineas (1400m)
Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “Vilana has always been held in high regard by James Cummings and he looked good winning over The Championships. I can see him cruising across from his wide barrier, settling near the speed, and once again being very strong at the finish. Mr Mozart hasn’t raced for four weeks but beat the older horses in the Doncaster Prelude the last time we saw him. He’s drawn perfectly and must be in the finish. If you like Vilana you have to like Loch Eagle as there wasn’t much between them last start. Party For One is an emerging filly having a terrific preparation.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Mr Mozart is flying at present and looks for a third consecutive win here since returning to NSW along with being ridden on speed. Very short at present $2.20 quote and to me is closer to a $2.70 chance. Must be respected as looks to control once again here. The value lies with Party For One with the blinkers being added and her recent efforts on very heavy tracks.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Vilana has gone through his grades very quickly which is a sign of a nice horse, tactically can roll forward sit on pace or run on plus handles the soft no problems.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Mr Mozart looks the clear top pick here coming off a couple of dominant wins. Gap between runs a slight query but comes back in distance and Pike has endless options from the draw. Does look hard to hold out.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Mr Mozart looks extremely hard to beat and the punters suggest they feel the same way. Over 70 per cent of the early money is in his corner.”
Verdict: Mr Mozart
R8: Hawkesbury Crown (1300m)
Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “This looks a target race for Fashchanel. A winner at her only run at the track, John O’Shea has given her three trials in preparation, and from a good barrier and her preferred soft track, I’m happy to be with her. Brookspire has developed into a quality mare, and while a Queensland campaign beckons, she’s awfully hard to beat here. Wandabaa is a ripper and must be a serious player, and while her recent trial wasn’t flash, Nudge is too classy to overlook.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “The 1300m looks an ideal starting point for Brookspire here in what doesn’t look an overly deep race. Solid record and fitted for this with a trial at Warwick Farm recently. Tested some smart ones last time in like Expat and Snapdancer at level weights so well suited here. Watch on Cliff’s Art who was sensational first up off an injury at Randwick.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “If you delete the last run for Mirra Vision and go on the second placing in the Group 1 Coolmore prior she would have to be half the price currently available. She has had some time since the last run at Newcastle and gets blinkers first time today so I expect her to be right in the finish.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Fashchanel went out in great style with back-to-back victories and looks to have come back just as well at the trials. Easy bet to have here with map advantage in a race that lacks speed.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “The push in the last 48 hours has been for Brookspire. Fashchanel was specked at the double figure opening price and is the best firmer.”
Verdict: Brookspire
R9: Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m)
Richard Haynes (Sky Sports Radio): “Kirwan’s Lane has always promised to measure to this level, and this could be just the race for that to happen. His first up run was excellent, he always improves second up, and he’ll be charging late. Smart mare Atishu shouldn’t be underestimated, if she turns up in her best form, she’s certainly a big hope. Art Cadeau appears to have made that leap to Group company and the south coast star looks to be going as well as ever. Olmedo might be ready now, he’s down in grade here.”
Glenn Munsie (Sky Racing): “Nearly half the field comes through the BM100 won by Our Playboy at Randwick so that is the formline to look at here. Expect a huge improvement here from The Frontman at his third Australian start. His two efforts here have been far better than what they appear on paper as he has done a stack of work in both of them and faded late. Banking on a much kinder run in transit here from inside draw without huge speed and that will suit him down to the ground. Wet poses no problems at all.”
Grant Palmer (bookie): “Not a lot of speed on paper which has me warming to one at big odds here Olmedo back from Group 1 level last time out. The rise to a mile is ideal and has a history of carrying big weights to win.”
Michael Sullivan (bookie): “Very even affair. Would love it a little drier for him but I thought Archedemus wasn’t hopeless. Won this race off a very similar set up last year carrying more weight and has a great record at the track. Away from him, Kirwans Lane and Art Cadeau do look well set-up and they account for over 75% of all money so far invested in the race.”
Andrew Georgiou (TAB): “Imaging, which opened at $16, has halved its quote and looks a genuine chance in this. I don’t mind Archedemus at the each-way odds.”
Verdict: Art Cadeau
Originally published as David Payne isn’t foxing when he says his underrated gelding can win
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