Cox Plate 2020: Predicted finish for every runner
Form analyst Chris Vernuccio picked last week’s Caulfield Cup winner, and also the quinella. Can he do it again in the Cox Plate? Take a look at his predicted finishing order for every runner.
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After winning the Underwood Stakes, Russian Camelot appeared to have a firm grip on the Cox Plate until his defeat in the Caulfield Stakes by Arcadia Queen.
Russian Camelot also has to contend with the widest barrier at the tricky Valley circuit which has seen the favourite ease in the market.
Among the local contenders, Fierce Impact, Kolding and Probabeel join Arcadia Queen in bringing winning form into the Cox Plate.
And the internationals have some serious form.
Form analyst CHRIS VERNUCCIO predicts where every runner will finish from first to last.
NOTE: This assessment is based on a good track rating. There are showers and heavy rain predicted on Friday and Saturday.
1. ARCADIA QUEEN
The WA mare reversed the Underwood Stakes result on Russian Camelot in the Caulfield Stakes. Although the slow tempo was put forward to explain her beating the $1.50 favourite, she too looked uncomfortable in the run. The way she surged home indicates she may have Russian Camelot’s measure again regardless how the race is run.
2. ARMORY
The pick of the internationals. The Aidan O’Brien camp says Armory has superior form than their 2014 winner Adelaide. The northern hemisphere three-year-old’s best result was his last-start third in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes behind Magical. Before that he displayed a stunning burst of speed to win the Group 3 Royal Whip Stakes.
3. RUSSIAN CAMELOT
Won the Underwood Stakes over Humidor and Arcadia Queen but it’s going to be difficult for him to beat the mare again from barrier 14 and most likely chasing her in the run. However, he’ll appreciate a quicker tempo than what he had in the Caulfield Stakes.
4. ASPETAR
There are big wraps on the British raider. A Group 1 winner in Germany last year, he has a great record over this distance mark, which includes a dominant last-start victory in the Group 2 York Stakes on the back of a narrow second in the Coral Gala.
5. SIR DRAGONET
The Irish import joined the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable with the Cox Plate as the primary target. The five-year-old hasn’t won since his first two career runs but has been super consistent this year with four consecutive seconds. Two starts back he finished 1½-lengths behind Buckhurst (seventhth in last week’s Caulfield Cup), and followed up with another runner-up result in the Gold Cup behind Magical.
6. PROBABEEL
The Kiwi mare continued her outstanding form in Australia when she won the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. She now has to step up to weight-for-age and a solidly-run 2040m could also be a little query. However, the four-year-old is drawn to get a comfortable run and a soft track will boost her chances.
7. KOLDING
Returned to winning form in the Group 1 George Main Stakes and Group 2 Hill Stakes, the latter his first at 2000m. The higher pressure of a Cox Plate could test him. The five-year-old is seeking redemption in Melbourne after two unplaced results in the autumn.
8. MUGATOO
Defeated for the first time this prep in The Metropolitan when he was nabbed on the line by Mirage Dancer. There are reservations over that form after Mirage Dancer finished second-last in the Caulfield Cup, although Mugatoo is more likely better suited dropping back in distance.
9. HUMIDOR
Chris Waller has revitalised the veteran when retirement loomed after he failed to fire in Perth last summer. He gave Winx a huge fright in the 2017 Cox Plate and finished three behind the champion mare the following year. His love of the Valley track will help him give a respectable performance.
10. BUCKHURST
Gains a start after the scratching of Magic Wand. Boasts two wins over Sir Dragonet. The Lloyd Williams raider ran seventh in the Caulfield Cup last week and going from 2400m to 2000m doesn’t appeal.
11. MASTER OF WINE
He was a surprise leader in the Caulfield Cup but that was due to circumstances. His race will unfold differently from barrier one but, like Buckhurst, is dropping back 400m in distance.
12. FIERCE IMPACT
An outstanding miler with three Group 1s at the trip, including the Makybe Diva Stakes two starts ago where he beat Russian Camelot. He’s a risk at 2040m, particularly if the tempo is strong.
13. GRANDSLAM
A shock inclusion on the back of the colt’s third placing in the Caulfield Guineas. His only win came in a BM66 at Morphettville. There have been better three-year-olds to contest the Cox Plate.
14. NETTOYER
Although she won The Doncaster at $41 in the autumn, the pizza-loving mare has been outclassed this spring. Her last-start second in the Group 3 Craven Plate is nowhere near good enough for a race of this standard.
SCRATCHED:
MAGIC WAND
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