Cox Plate 2018: Glenn McFarlane rates every runner

JAMES Cummings hopes Avilius can give Winx “a scare” while fellow Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor is plotting her undoing with Benbatl. GLENN McFARLANE RATES THE COX PLATE FIELD

JAMES Cummings has predicted the Cox Plate furnace will be stoked up a long way from home in Saturday’s $5 million race, saying he hopes his exciting import Avilius can give wonder mare Winx “a scare”.

While conceding there does not look a lot of pace in the race, Cummings noted the tempo in weight-for-age races this year has been going on earlier than usual.

ANALYSIS: DOES BARRIERS REALLY MATTER FOR WINX?

CHRIS WALLER: WHAT WINX HAS THE RIVALS LACK

“There doesn’t appear to be an amazing amount of early pressure amongst these horses and a small field, especially at weight-for-age, can often lead to a pretty sedate tempo for the first half of these events,” Cummings said.

“What we have been noticing in the Underwood and the Caulfield Stakes is that the pressure is going on a long way out.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar here.”

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THE SKINNY

Glenn McFarlane rates the Cox Plate field

1. BENBATL

Looms as the most likely party-pooper if an upset is to occur. The globetrotting Godolphin horse could hardly have been more impressive when saluting in his first Australian start in the Caulfield Stakes, out-slugging Blair House. Has won three Group 1s this year. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor expects further improvement.

Trainer and jockey: Saeed bin Suroor; Oisin Murphy

Barrier: 3

TAB odds: $8.50

The quote: “I have a lot of respect for (Winx), she is a superstar. But my horse is really good. He worked well (on Monday) and he is in good form.” — trainer Saeed bin Suroor

2. HUMIDOR

Almost pulled off a massive upset last year when running Winx to almost half a length. Was solid but no match for Benbatl and Blair House a fortnight ago. Darren Weir has conceded he can’t beat Winx, but hopes the addition of blinkers for the first time this campaign can prompt a similar response as on Cox Plate day 2017.

Trainer and jockey: Darren Weir; Damian Lane

Barrier: 7

TAB odds: $17

The quote: “I would have preferred one … he loves the rail. I drew the outside for Blake (Shinn) last year, but the way the race panned out, he got to the rail.” — part-owner Brae Sokolski

Humidor (left) pushes Winx in last year’s Cox Plate. Picture: Getty Images

3. KINGS WILL DREAM

Good run as Caulfield Cup favourite when sixth without luck, sustaining a minor leg laceration. Knuckled just after the start which cost him and was too far back to make a meaningful impression, though he finished well. Ran well against Winx in the Turnbull Stakes, but can’t see him troubling the champ here.

Trainer and jockey: Darren Weir; John Allen

Barrier: 4

Tab odds: $23

The quote: “He does have a little propensity to be a little tardy, so we didn’t want to go (barrier) one or two. Weiry’s instructions to me was to (choose barrier) five, but I have overruled him on instinct and have gone with four.” — part-owner Brae Sokolski

4. AVILIUS

Bypassed the Caulfield Cup last week, with trainer James Cummings opting for the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup pathway favoured by his late grandfather Bart with superstar Saintly 22 years ago. Hasn’t been beaten in four starts in Australia, including tough win over Jameeh in the Bart Cummings last start. Can run well but better suited back to Flemington.

Trainer and jockey: James Cummings; Glyn Schofield

Barrier: 1

TAB odds: $17

The quote: “He’s really well … we have noticed that he has done so well that he is really in need of a run before we go to the (Melbourne) Cup. For that reason, we think the sharpness of the Cox Plate at weight-for-age … is ideal. If Avilius is running on strongly, we would be delighted heading into the Cup.” — trainer James Cummings

Avilius is unbeaten in four Australian starts. Picture: Getty Images

5. D’ARGENTO

Another of Waller’s star-studded army who has been racing extra well without getting the bickies. Slugged it out but narrowly beaten by Hartnell in the Epsom, and we know what Winx has done to that old warrior in the past. Solid when coming from behind in the Caulfield Stakes. Can’t see the grey getting close to Winx.

Trainer and jockey: Chris Waller; Kerrin McEvoy

Barrier: 2

TAB odds: $31

6. WINX

Saturday will mark 1295 days since the mighty mare lost her last race — the 2015 AJC Oaks. To put it into context, we’ve had three Prime Ministers in that time. Extraordinary horse who has made the Valley her own and stands on the cusp of a mind-boggling fourth successive Cox Plate.

Trainer and jockey: Chris Waller; Hugh Bowman

Barrier: 6

TAB odds: $1.25

The quote: “She looks perfect to my eyes, that’s the way the preparation has unfolded … I wouldn’t have changed anything, she is absolutely perfect.” — trainer Chris Waller

Winx gallops down The Valley straight with Hugh Bowman on board. Picture: Getty Images

7. ROSTROPOVICH

Lightly-raced, improving international who faces a huge task against the world’s greatest horse. Last start winner of the Group 3 Club Stakes at Leopardstown who was also Irish Derby runner-up, won by Latrobe. Plenty of ticks — a son of Frankel, trained by the great Aidan O’Brien and to be ridden by star hoop Ryan Moore, so he rates a place chance, but hard to see him winning.

Trainer and jockey: Aidan O’Brien; Ryan Moore

Barrier: 8

TAB odds: $34

8. SAVVY COUP

Dual Group 1-winning Kiwi mare who went well around Moonee Valley at Breakfast With The Best. Very consistent horse who won the Livamol Classic at Hastings earlier this month at the Cox Plate trip of 2040m. Her only race in Australia saw her finish fifth in the ATC Oaks, beaten 5.7 lengths behind Unforgiven. Her sire Savabeel won this race in 2004. The only other mare in the race should have her covered, though.

Trainers and jockey: Michael and Matthew Pittman; Chris Johnson

Barrier: 5

TAB odds: $31.

The quote: “She worked really nicely, she had a good look at the track but did everything right.” — track-rider Brittany Moore.

THE VERDICT

1st. WINX

2nd. BENBATL

3rd. HUMIDOR

4th. AVILIUS

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Cummings conceded Winx was unquestionably the horse to beat as she chases a record fourth win in the Cox Plate.

“To my eye, she looked fantastic,” he said after Winx had worked at Breakfast With The Best. “I saw her (on Monday) walking in the sun.

“I don’t think I have ever seen her better.”

A last start winner of the Bart Cummings, Avilius bypassed the Caulfield Cup, but Cummings is content a run in Saturday’s Cox Plate will top the five-year-old Godolphin runner perfectly ahead of the Melbourne Cup.

The horse hasn’t been beaten in four starts in Australia for Cummings.

“He is not yet proven to have that weight-for-age turn of foot to be competitive here, but the way he is going, he is capable of giving them a scare,” he said.

WE’RE OUT TO BEAT WINX: BIN SUROOR

GODOLPHIN trainer Saeed bin Suroor hasn’t given a second’s thought about the sort of reception he and his horse Benbatl would receive if they can pull off racing’s version of Killing Bambi — beating Winx in Saturday’s Cox Plate.

But while he stressed his admiration for the wonder mare, and her trainer Chris Waller, continues to swell, it won’t stop him from trying to plot her undoing.

When asked if he feared the crowd mood at The Valley would turn against him, bin Suroor smiled and said: “We’ll see what happens.”

“I have a lot of respect for (Winx) and I have a lot of respect for the trainer and the owners. I wish them good luck too.

“Winx is a superstar ... I always watch (her). She is the best of the best. All the world will be watching on Saturday.

“My horse (Benbatl), if it won, that would be great. If she wins, she would be the best in Australian history.”

Benbatl after a workout at Werribee. Picture: AAP

Fresh from winning the first leg of the big three Melbourne races this spring — last Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with Best Solution — bin Suroor is hopeful Benbatl can add the second part on Saturday.

And if there is any rain, that would only increase the horse’s chances.

“He is a proven horse and if there is any rain, it would be good for him,” bin Suroor said.

“Barrier 3 (means) he is going to take a nice position early, to be somewhere close in the race. If my horse was second orthird (in the running), I’d be happy.”