Caulfield tips, odds, quaddie snapshot and betting strategy
Form analyst Brad Waters says Buffalo River will prove too tough to run down, while Russian Camelot is set to score his second Group 1 triumph. Plus, quaddie analysis and $50 betting strategy for Underwood Stakes Day.
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Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over a huge Underwood Stakes Day card at Caulfield, while TAB punting guru Nick Quinn casts his eyes over the feature races at Caulfield and Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. Plus, chief Herald Sun racing writer Leo Schlink weighs in with his best bets.
LEO’S LOCKS
BEST BET
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (Race 8, No.10 — $1.95)
Outstanding in defeat first-up at Flemington and certain to have improved off that run. The sole query revolves around tempo. Should win with ordinary luck.
NEXT BEST
HOW WOMANTIC (Race 1, No.2 — $2.90)
Unbeaten at the track, distance and second-up, makes strong appeal. Market support suggests she can win again.
WINDSTORM (Race 5, No.7 — $2.40)
Drawn to get the run of the race for William Pike from gate four. At peak fitness now. The one to beat.
FLYING AWARD (Race 6, No.4 —$5)
Desperately unlucky last start here over 1200m. This is a quality contest, but will be extremely hard to hold out.
WEEKEND BEST BETS: Don’t jump off Crusader
THE TRAINER
Trent Busuttin
RICH HIPS (Race 2, No.15 — $5.50)
“She has a bad barrier, but gets back anyway. We’d welcome any rain. She’s a genuine each-way chance.”
LETZBEGLAM (Race 7, No.1 — $12)
“Stepping up 1400m for the first time and there could be a query over that distance, If she can get the seven furlongs, she can be in the mix.”
INVERLOCH (Race 9, No.4 — $9)
“Very competitive field, very genuine horse. Bit of work from that wide gate (13) with 60 kilograms, but we expect him to run well.”
BRAD’S BEST
BEST BET
BUFFALO RIVER (Race 5, No. 5)
VALUE BET
CROSSHAVEN (Race 6, No. 3)
EARLY QUADDIE
4, 8, 10, 12, 15, 16/3, 14/1, 7/5, 7, 9
$100 flexi for 138 per cent
BIG6
1, 7/5, 7, 9/1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 11/9, 10/ 4, 7, 8, 13
$100 flexi for 5.8 per cent
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1 — RACE 6
Tough start to Saturday’s Caulfield quaddie with a very even edition of the Caulfield Guineas Prelude but I’m going with the form from the Flemington meeting on September 12 as the main guide. The Danehill Stakes and Exford Plate look decent form races so am largely going with those runners. CROSSHAVEN (3) and BARTLEY (6) are likely to roll forward again but the likes of PRAGUE (1), CHERRY TORTONI (2) and AMISH BOY (5) will be running on late. FLYING AWARD (4) comes out of the McNeil Stakes but must go in as well.
1st leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
LEG 2 — RACE 7
The Thousand Guineas Prelude is as difficult as the colts and geldings’ race but the formlines come from a number of different angles. Sticking with the Danehill Stakes as a guide and putting in PERSONAL (6) and ANNAVISTO (11) but also adding the unbeaten SA filly INSTANT CELEBRITY (4) and the talented LETZBEGLAM (1), NIGHT RAID (5) and MOZZIE MONSTER (8)
2nd leg: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 11
LEG 3 — RACE 8
With two wide legs to start the Caulfield quaddie, we’ll need to go a bit skinnier to retain some value if we’re lucky enough to get a dividend. RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) looks awfully hard to beat after his excellent first-up run in the Makybe Diva Stakes. ARCADIA QUEEN (9) is ready to fire after a terrific effort in the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington last time out.
3rd leg: 9, 10
LEG 4 — RACE 9
Tough race to finish the Caulfield quaddie with so many of these runners at different stages of their preparations and set to peel off in all sorts of directions through the spring. INVERLOCH (4) ran well first-up behind the impressive winner The Chosen One at Flemington last time and has a good Caulfield record. ODEON (7) is a 1700m specialist that has built fitness with two runs this time in. NONCONFORMIST (8) hit the line well first-up and is another with an impressive Caulfield record. JUNIPAL (9) scored easily at The Valley last time out and should continue to improve.
4th leg: 4, 7, 8, 9
$100 flexi for 34.7 per cent
SKINNY QUADDIE
Not easy to narrow down a skinny quaddie this week with the wide number of chances in the first two legs but we’ll bit the bullet and go with three picks in each of the first two legs. Going with PRAGUE (1), CROSSHAVEN (3) and FLYING AWARD (4) in the first leg. Hoping PERSONAL (6), NIGHT RAID (5) and INSTANT CELEBRITY (4) can do the job the Thousand Guineas Prelude. Taking RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) one-out in the Underwood Stakes and INVERLOCH (4), ODEON (7) and NONCONFORMIST (8) in the last leg.
1st leg: 1, 3, 4
2nd leg: 4, 5, 6
3rd leg: 10
4th leg: 4, 7, 8
$100 flexi for 370 per cent
BRAD’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY
CAULFIELD
RACE 4
$50 win ORDER OF COMMAND (1) at $6.50
With Alfa Oro and Brooklyn Hustle running at The Valley on Friday night, Order of Command shapes as a great chance in the Testa Rossa Stakes. He has 62kg but isn’t in too badly at the weights and has the services of Jamie Kah. The $6.50 won’t hold up with deductions but Order Of Command will be hard to beat.
RACE 5
$50 win BUFFALO RIVER (5) at $3.20
Buffalo River has been outstanding since arriving in Australia with his only defeat here being in the Silver Eagle at Randwick last year. He rolls forward and keeps running to leave his rivals out of their comfort zone. He’ll be awfully tough to run down at Caulfield.
RACE 6
$25 each-way CROSSHAVEN (3) at $8/$2.70
There was plenty to like about Crosshaven’s on-pace win in the Exford Plate at Flemington last time out. He went forward and toughed it out well and similar tactics will make him tough to beat around Caulfield. Happy to play him each-way at the price.
RACE 8
$50 win RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) at $1.95
Russian Camelot will start short but he’s the right way to finish Saturday’s strategy. Hopefully we’re playing with the TAB’s money by this point and get a free hit at boosting the bank for Turnbull Stakes day next week. He was terrific in the Makybe Diva Stakes and will only be better for that outing. Tough to beat.
BRAD’S RACE-BY-RACE PREVIEW
RACE 1: 12.45PM GLYNN BRAMICH HANDICAP (1100m)
With significant rain predicted on Friday, the exact track rating is unknown while the rail will be out six metres. Sticking with HOW WOMANTIC (2) in the first of the day after her narrow first-up win at The Valley. She’ll be fitter for that and the drop back to 1100m will be in her favour. KALKARNI ROYALE (9) showed talent last time in, including a win over last Saturday’s Group 3 winner Felicia during the winter. BE MY STAR (5) scored at The Valley last time in and her SA form is good enough to be competitive here.
SUGGESTED BET: HOW WOMANTIC to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: How Womantic $3.70-$3.80-$3.30 ($500 @ $3.80, $400 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.60 TWICE, $500 @ $3.30)
RACE 2: 1.20PM MRC RMHC PIN & WIN HANDICAP (1400m)
Big and even field to tackle the BM78 contest at Caulfield but POWER SCHEME (10) could be over the odds in this line-up. He’s a first-up winner that was competitive in much harder races during the autumn. He’s an each-way chance at odds. RICH HIPS (15) hit the line well when narrowly beaten at Sandown last time out. Expect her to run on well. EASY BEAST (4) pushed forward and battled on steadily first-up at Geelong and his second-up record entitles him to some thought here. GRAND DE FLORA (12) impressed in her maiden Australian preparation and commands respect first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: POWER SCHEME each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Grand De Flora $7 – $5
RACE 3: 1.55PM PETER COMLEY HANDICAP (2000m)
Former French galloper LE BAOL (3) was impressive when powering away to score at his Australian debut at Sandown on September 9. He should only prove tougher to beat at Caulfield with that run under his belt. IRISH FLAME (14) was solid racing on the pace and boxing on well behind the talented winner The Chosen One at Caulfield and should go well again. BARADE (9) did his best work late over 2200m at Bendigo and scored over 2000m two runs back. SKYMAN (7) was unsuited over 1600m around The Valley last time out but getting back up to 2000m gives him the chance to bounce back.
SUGGESTED BET: LE BAOL to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Le Baol $2.70-$2.25 ($500 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.50, $300 @ $2.50)
RACE 4: 2.30PM LISTED TESTA ROSSA STAKES (1200m)
Good little sprint race here. Thinking BROOKLYN HUSTLE (6) will run in the Moir Stakes on Friday night so going with the ever-reliable ORDER OF COMMAND (1) to score again first-up, even with the 62kg. He won well at Caulfield first-up and actually isn’t in badly at the weights. He’d be giving some of these 11kg in a true handicap. ALFA ORO (7) is a talented sprinter and will be the testing material for the top pick. BRAVO TANGO (5) races well first-up and will be running home late, especially on wet ground. CORUSCATE (4) is usually around the mark and goes well first-up.
SUGGESTED BET: ORDER OF COMMAND to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: ORDER OF COMMAND $9.50 – $6.50
RACE 5: 3.10PM HERE FOR THE HORSES HANDICAP (1400m)
Strong field for an open handicap with some handy performers clashing but going with BUFFALO RIVER (5) on top first-up with Damien Oliver aboard. He’ll go forward as usual and will be tough to run down, especially in wet conditions. WINDSTORM (7) was far from disgraced in stakes class last time out and will be one of the hardest to beat. ADELAIDE ACE (9) did his best work late at Flemington and races well on this track. TRAVIMYFRIEND (4) ran on from last to score at Flemington and is racing in great heart.
SUGGESTED BET: BUFFALO RIVER to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Buffalo River $4.80-$5-$4-$3.20 ($500 e/w @ $5/$1.75, $250 e/w @ $4.80/$1.70, $500 @ $4, $1,000 @ $3.70, $800 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.50, $1,200 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.20), Adelaide Ace $12-$10
RACE 6: 3.50PM GROUP 3 CAULFIELD GUINEAS PRELUDE (1400m)
Tricky race to start the quaddie with a few formlines merging in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. CROSSHAVEN (2) is the top pick after his fighting on-pace win at Flemington second-up. He’ll go forward again and is unbeaten on soft ground. PRAGUE (1) has a tricky gate but he fought on well to be beaten a length in the Danehill Stakes first-up and will be fitter. FLYING AWARD (4) was terrific when running on for a close second in the McNeil Stakes first-up and looks suited here. AMISH BOY (5) hit the line well for second to the smart Doubtland in the Danehill Stakes and is worth including in a difficult race.
SUGGESTED BET: CROSSHAVEN each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Prague $7.50-$6.50, Flying Award $7-$5 ($300 @ $7, $500 e/w @ $5.50/$2.20, $250 e/w @ $5/$2.10)
RACE 7: 4.30PM GROUP 2 THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE (1400m)
PERSONAL (6) raced as though the 1400m would be perfect for her when making ground in the Danehill Stakes. Drawing barrier one will enable Damien Oliver to give her the perfect run. NIGHT RAID (5) impressed with her fighting win in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes and should be hard to beat again. ANNAVISTO went OK in the Danehill Stakes but getting up to 1400m around a bend will be a big help to her. INSTANT CELEBRITY (4) has impressed in her three Adelaide wins and must be considered a winning chance.
SUGGESTED BET: PERSONAL each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Instant Celebrity $3.40-$3.20 ($400 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.30, $500 @ $3.10 TWICE), Night Raid $4-$4.20-$4 ($1,200 @ $4.20, $2,000 @ $4)
RACE 8: 5.50PM GROUP 1 UNDERWOOD STAKES (1800m)
Hard to go past RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) after his outstanding effort in the Makybe Diva Stakes when nothing went right for him. The run will have brought him on nicely and the 1800m will only make him harder to beat in the Underwood Stakes. ARCADIA QUEEN (9) showed the benefit of her first-up run when narrowly beaten in the Let’s Elope Stakes and she’ll be fitter again. THE CHOSEN ONE (7) showed an impressive turn of foot to score in an easier race at Flemington but he’s obviously come back well and can show up again. HUMIDOR (2) wound back the clock with a terrific win in the Feehan Stakes and has an impressive second-up record.
SUGGESTED BET: RUSSIAN CAMELOT to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Arcadia Queen $4.40-$5-$4.60, Russian Camelot $2.10-$1.95 ($5,000 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2.10 MULTIPLE TIMES, $3,000 @ $2, $500 @ $2 MULTIPLE TIMES, $400 @ $2)
RACE 9: 5.45PM EVERGREEN TURF HANDICAP (1700m)
Perhaps the toughest race of the day to finish on what could be a pretty wet surface at Caulfield. INVERLOCH (4) could be over the odds in the last after his solid first-up run to finish fourth at huge odds at Flemington. He looks to have come back well and likes the Caulfield circuit. Going forward might also be a plus in the last. NONCONFORMIST (8) hit the line well for third when resuming and he’s another that races well at Caulfield. ODEON (7) pushed forward and tried hard behind Junipal at The Valley. He has a great record of three wins from four 1700m runs and has drawn an inside gate. REALM OF FLOWERS (13) should have finished closer at Cranbourne first-up and is worth thought in a tricky finale to Underwood Stakes day at Caulfield.
SUGGESTED BET: INVERLOCH each-way.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Inverloch $13-$9.50 ($300 x $100 e/w @ $10/$3.10), Nonconformist $4.80-$3.70-$3.50 ($500 @ $4.80, $400 @ $4.80), Junipal $3.80-$4-$3.80 ($1,500 @ $4, $500 @ $4, $1,400 @ $3.90, $500 @ $3.90, $400 @ $3.90)
QUINNY’S WEEKEND SNAPSHOT
BEST BET
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (Caulfield Saturday, Race 8, No. 10)
VALUE BET
DIAMOND EFFORT (The Valley Friday, Race 7, No. 8)
LAY OF THE WEEK
FORBIDDEN LOVE (Rosehill Saturday, Race 5, No. 10)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
THE VALLEY (FRIDAY NIGHT)
RACE 7
A tremendous edition of the Moir Stakes with a host of winning chances. There are seven runners first-up from a spell in the scamper and freshness has been the recipe for success in recent years. Five of the past six winners have come into the race first-up, while last year’s winner Nature Strip was second-up. The first-up form from these seven first-up runners combined is 36 attempts for 19 wins and six placings.
They include Fabergino, who is a perfect seven from seven first-up, and Pippie, who is three from three. Fabergino opened $4.20 favourite and has eased slightly to $4.40. The star mare from Western Australia has won nine of her 12 career starts, including her past four. She looks a leading chance to win at her first Victorian start.
There has been money for the speedy Pippie since the barrier draw firming from $10 into $8. She sizzled around the Caulfield track earlier in the year to win the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and there is a case to be made for her doing the same here. Pippie shapes as a major player.
Diamond Effort has attracted support at longer odds, including one bet of $1000 at $10. The Clinton McDonald-trained mare has won her past five starts including a strong win when resuming in the Group 3 The Heath. She continues to race through the grades and must be respected. This is one race though where there is a genuine case for just about any runner, so if you have a fancy don’t doubt yourself.
SUGGESTED BET: FABERGINO the win and save on DIAMOND EFFORT.
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ROSEHILL (SATURDAY)
RACE 7
Rothfire is the only last-start winner in this year’s Golden Rose and he heads the market at $1.95. He resumed from a spell with a dominant win in the Run To The Rose and has won seven of his eight career starts, and could easily be undefeated.
Last year we saw an epic edition of the race — Bivouac defeating subsequent Everest winner Yes Yes Yes and subsequent Group 1 winner Exosphere in third. Rothfire looks to have the class of those three runners.
Rothfire should win again at the short odds and land some nice pre-post bets after opening $8 and touching $9. Bets since final field on Rothfire include $5000 at $2 and $2000 at $1.95.
North Pacific is on the second line of betting at $5.50, the Team Hawkes-trained colt opened $51 and got into as short as $3.50 but has eased slightly. If there is to be an upset, it could come from the Chris Waller-trained colt Global Quest, who is a $26 chance.
Global Quest resumed from a spell by running second to rising star Mo‘unga in the Dulcify and his only other start at Rosehill saw him finish runners-up to star two year-old Farnan in the Silver Slipper.
SUGGESTED BET: ROTHFIRE the win.
CAULFIELD (SATURDAY)
RACE 8
Russian Camelot has been widely described as the most exciting horse on the planet and looks the one to beat in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday. The South Australian Derby winner resumed with an enormous first-up run in the Makybe Diva Stakes and he has already been backed from $2.10 into $2. He looks set for a big spring which could see him claim the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup and expect the money for him to continue for him here.
Arcadia Queen flashed home to run an eye catching second to Pretty Brazen last start at Flemington and should again run into the money and while there are plenty of quality runners in the field, it is hard to see them beating Russian Camelot.
SUGGESTED BET: RUSSIAN CAMELOT the win.
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