Brad Waters and Gilbert Gardiner assess the chances of every runner for the Australian Guineas
The Group 1 Australian Guineas is an open affair so Herald Sun form analysts Brad Waters and Gilbert Gardiner assess the chances of every runner.
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Herald Sun racing writers Brad Waters and Gilbert Gardiner look at the chances of each runner in Saturday’s $1.5m Australian Guineas at Flemington.
RACE DETAILS
1600m, Flemington race 7
Saturday at 4:20pm
1. HITOTSU (2) – $4.80
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace. Jockey: John Allen 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Victoria Derby winner resuming over the shorter trip but he has the class to win this fresh, especially from the draw.
GILBERT SAYS: Faultless build-up to this but going to need luck from the sticky gate.
2. CAPTIVANT (10) – $7
Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden. Jockey: Jamie Kah 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Closed well in the CS Hayes Stakes. He’s a Group 1 winner so he’s good enough but the weather holds the key to his chances. He doesn’t want it too wet.
GILBERT SAYS: Caught the eye last start but best work on dry ground.
3. PROFONDO (15) – $4.20
Trainer: Richard Litt. Jockey: Robbie Dolan 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Quality Sydney three-year-old having his first start in Melbourne. Outstanding talent that should be thereabouts despite the draw.
GILBERT SAYS: Star on the rise but first-up in new surrounds a query.
4. FORGOT YOU (6) – $9.50
Trainers: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. Jockey: Mark Zahra 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Loved his run when he caught the eye in the CS Hayes Stakes. Wet ground won’t worry him and the 1600m will be perfect.
GILBERT SAYS: The name says it all. Forgotten colt looks a serious contender.
5. ALEGRON (3) – $61
Trainers: James Cummings. Jockey: D Oliver 57kg
BRAD SAYS: OK late in the CS Hayes Stakes and drawn to race closer in the Guineas. Could sneak a place at odds.
GILBERT SAYS: Will find a few of these too slick.
6. COASTWATCH – Scratched
7. LIGHTSABER (4) – $13
Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Luke Nolen 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Good first-up but has developed a few barrier problems. Prefer to watch his attitude at the start here.
GILBERT SAYS: Quality colt will be hard to run down – if he jumps. Take on trust.
8. RANCH HAND (9) – $17
Trainer: Chris Waller Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Won down the straight in the spring but first two runs this time in have been excellent. Up to 1600m but will be better again. Each-way chance.
GILBERT SAYS: Nothing wrong with Paulele and Anamoe form. Include in multiples.
9. PINSTRIPED (11) – $8
Trainer: Enver Jusufovic. Jockey: Michael Dee 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Unbeaten 3YO that has done nothing wrong. Rain wouldn’t worry him and he’s right in contention again.
GILBERT SAYS: Huge win last start and ready to peak third-up. Fitness edge on main rivals a big tick.
10. RHINOCEROS (5) – $81
Trainers: Emma-Lee and David Browne. Jockey: Jamie Mott 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Only fair in the CS Hayes Stakes and this is no easier. Might need further now.
GILBERT SAYS: Not up to these.
11. SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (8) – $41
TRAINERS: Mitchell Freedman. Jockey: Jordan Childs 55kg
Brad says: Sound effort first-up and the 1600m will suit but this looks too strong for him.
GILBERT SAYS: Rough place chance as rarely beaten far.
12. SHARP RESPONSE (12) – $41
Trainer: Julius Sandhu Jockey: Beau Mertens 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Consistent type that wasn’t far away first-up but place hopes look best in this.
GILBERT SAYS: Tough draw but nothing wrong with Coastwatch form.
13. PRIX DE TURN (16) – $41
Trainer: Matthew Brown. Jockey: Ben Allen 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Easy maiden winner when resuming at Sandown but this is much tougher. The draw is no help.
GILBERT SAYS: No thanks.
14. ZERELLE (17) – $61
Trainers: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. Jockey: Craig Newitt 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Won easier assignments at his last two runs but this is a step too far for him.
GILBERT SAYS: Touted as a Caulfield Guineas prospect but failed to put in as a colt. Unbeaten since ultimate gear change. Sneaky place chance.
15. PASCERO (7) – $17
Trainers: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Jockey: Damian Lane 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Gave a great sight in front in the CS Hayes Stakes and will be better for the experience. Untried at the mile but is worth thought.
GILBERT SAYS: Took a smart horse to beat him last start. Each-way chance if ridden with cover.
16. BON’S A PEARLA (13) – $51
Trainer: Kevin Corstens. Jockey: Brett Prebble 55kg
BRAD SAYS: The only filly in the race and wasn’t disgraced in a leader-dominated race last Saturday. Group 2 winner in the spring and she’ll be fitter.
GILBERT SAYS: Never got a crack at them last start. Can’t win but certainly a rough place chance.
17. MAURICE’S ME DAD (14) – $31
Trainer: Bjorn Baker Jockey: Josh Parr 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Been OK in the Sydney lead-up races but place hopes look best in this harder assignment, especially from the tricky gate.
GILBERT SAYS: Around the mark up north but top 10 chance at best.
16. CORONA LAD (1) – $81
Trainer: Nathan Dunn. Jockey: Thomas Stockdale 57kg
BRAD SAYS: Weakened in the last 100m of the CS Hayes Stakes. Harder here but keep an eye on him, he can win something easier in the coming weeks.
GILBERT SAYS: Not up to the big boys just yet.
BRAD WATERS TIPS
1. Forgot You
2. Hitotsu
3. Profondo
4. Pinstriped
GILBERT GARDINER TIPS
1. Pinstriped
2. Profondo
3. Forgot You
4. Hitotsu
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