Super Rugby R18 review: Waratahs secure top spot but other playoff positions still up for grabs

STRUGGLING to breakdown the final-round ramifications for the Super Rugby semis? Never fear, we’ve run the maths for you right here!

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JULY 06: Sekope Kepu of the Waratahs celebrates with team mates after scoring a try during the round 18 Super Rugby match between the Waratahs and the Highlanders at Allianz Stadium on July 6, 2014 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

NSW Waratahs are settled at the top of the Super Rugby standings but the make-up of the other five playoff spots will go down to the wire.

The Tahs cannot be shifted from first place this weekend after they routed the Highlanders 44-16 on Sunday to open up an unassailable seven-point lead at the top of the ladder.

They won’t want to lose any momentum in Brisbane ahead of a break in the first week of the finals, and shouldn’t have too much trouble disposing of the woeful Queensland Reds.

The final make-up of the other five playoff spots will be decided this weekend where four games will weed out the contenders from the pretenders.

Read on for a complete breakdown of the final-round ramifications, and then a wrap-up of the weekend’s action!

1. Waratahs - 53 points

v Reds (A)

THE EQUATION: The Tahs have wrapped up the minor premiership and will finish top regardless of how they fare against the Reds at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night.

Highest possible finish: First

Lowest possible finish: First

2. Crusaders - 46 points

v Highlanders (h)

THE EQUATION: The seven-time champions will claim the New Zealand conference and can also lock down second spot with a win at home to the Highlanders, although the second part of that scenario is not quite that simple. They are level on points with the Sharks and have a marginally better points differential (+97, compared to +89) so even a bonus point victory won’t guarantee them the much-coveted runners-up place which ensures a first-round bye followed by a home final. A loss would see them concede the Kiwi conference to the Highlanders, and drop them back to fourth on the ladder which brings with it a home qualifying final in week one of the playoffs.

Highest possible finish: Second

Lowest possible finish: Fourth

3. Sharks - 46 points

v Stormers (a)

THE EQUATION: The Sharks have the South African conference wrapped up and, despite a shock loss to the Cheetahs, are still in the race for second place. They’ll go into their match away to the Stormers knowing what margin they’ll have to win by as the Crusaders-Highlanders match is earlier on Saturday. If they don’t win or win by enough, they’ll finish third and host a home qualifying final in week one of the playoffs.

Highest possible finish: Second

Lowest possible finish: Third

4. Highlanders - 42 points

v Crusaders (a)

THE EQUATION: Remarkably the Highlanders could finish as high as second - and win the New Zealand conference - or miss out on the playoffs altogether. A bonus-point victory against the Crusaders in Christchurch, where they’ve won just once in their past 11 meetings, will lock up the Kiwi conference provided they also deny their opponents a bonus point. That would also put them second on the ladder ahead of the Sharks-Stormers match later in the day. But if they fall short the winner of the Brumbies-Force match will leapfrog them, as could the loser of that match if they pick up two bonus points. And if the Chiefs beat the Blues earlier on Friday, the Highlanders could fall back to seventh and out of the playoffs. Picking up a single bonus point should be enough, provided the Brumbies and Force don’t play out a draw and score four tries each.

Highest possible finish: Second

Lowest possible finish: Seventh

5. Hurricanes - 41 points

BYE

THE EQUATION: The Hurricanes have the bye and will earn no points, so are pinning all their hopes on the Blues. If the Blues beat the Chiefs without a bonus point, the Canes can hold on to sixth. But if the Chiefs win, the Canes are gone. Even if the Chiefs do lose, the Hurricanes can still drop out as winner of the Brumbies-Force match will definitely go past them, while the loser could do likewise if they pick up a bonus point.

Highest possible finish: Sixth

Lowest possible finish: Eighth

6. Brumbies - 40 points

v Force (h)

THE EQUATION: Win and they’re in, it’s as simple as that for the men from Canberra who host the Force on Friday night after the earlier Blues-Chiefs match. Given the timing of their match, the Brumbies and Force will know if they’re behind the Chiefs or Blues on the ladder when they take the field at GIO Stadium on Friday night. As mentioned above, a losing bonus point (or two) could be enough for the loser of this match to sneak in at the expense of the Hurricanes and possibly Highlanders. But a loss and a bonus point won’t be enough if the Chiefs beat the Blues. There is also the possibility – albeit highly unlikely – that the Brumbies and Force could finish on 43 points, by playing out a draw and both sides grabbing a four-try bonus point, which would be enough to jump past the Highlanders if they lose to the Crusaders.

Highest possible finish: Fourth

Lowest possible finish: Ninth

7. Western Force - 40 points

v Brumbies (a)

THE EQUATION: Same as the Brumbies.

8. Chiefs - 40 points

v Blues (a)

Highest possible finish: Fourth

Lowest possible finish: Ninth

THE EQUATION: The back-to-back champs will keep their title defence alive with a win away to the Blues, which will guarantee a spot in the top six as they’ll overtake the Hurricanes and the loser of the Brumbies-Force clash, and would also leapfrog the Highlanders if they fall to the Crusaders. A bonus point win for the Chiefs would also push them past the winner of Brumbies v Force if that side doesn’t pick up a bonus point. A loss and it’s just about curtains, although they could possibly sneak in with two losing bonus points - provided the loser of the Brumbies-Force clash also doesn’t pick up two bonus points.

Highest possible finish: Fourth

Lowest possible finish: Ninth

9. Blues - 36 points

v Chiefs (h)

THE EQUATION: The ninth-ranked Blues are, unsurprisingly, the longest shots at making the top six. They need to hammer the Chiefs by more than 38 points due to an inferior points differential to the Hurricanes (Blues are +27, Hurricanes are +65) and for either the Brumbies or Force not to pick up a bonus point when they clash.

Highest possible finish: Sixth

Lowest possible finish: 11th

ROUND 18 REVIEW

SECOND-HALF BLITZ SEES TAHS SET UP SYDNEY FINALS RUN

NSW Waratahs secured a maiden Super Rugby minor premiership on Sunday afternoon after a brilliant second-half display saw them smash the Highlanders 44-16.

The 28-point win ensured the Waratahs will finish the regular season in first place regardless of what happens in this weekend’s final round, and gives them the crucial home-ground advantage for the playoffs.

That position was far from assured at half-time on Sunday however as the Waratahs failed to make the most of their early dominance, and squandered several try-scoring opportunities after Rob Horne’s five-pointer.

But the hosts came out firing upon the resumption and when a poor Lima Sopoaga pass gifted the Waratahs an attacking scrum there was only ever going to be one result.

Israel Folau ran off a nice inside ball from Kurtley Beale to score from the scrum before Sekope Kepu (53rd minute) and then Nick Phipps (61st) both added five-pointers to relieve the tension among the 24,500 fans on hand.

The Highlanders had a chance to get themselves back into the contest in the 57th minute when All Blacks winger Ben Smith made a linebreak but he was denied in the corner by a fine covering tackle from Beale.

Jacques Potgieter and Taqele Naiyaravaro completed the try-scoring for the Tahs while replacement centre Phil Burleigh grabbed a late five-pointer for the Highlanders, who now head to Christchurch for a final-round clash with the Crusaders.

The Dunedin side sit in fourth place and may only need a losing bonus-point to secure a place in the semi-finals. They will know exactly what they need to do before they run out on Saturday as the Chiefs-Blues and Brumbies-Force clashes – the fixtures that have a bearing on the make-up of final top six – are both played on Friday.

The Waratahs can rest easy knowing their first season goal – a top-two finish – is assured but they won’t want to lose any momentum in a fierce showdown with local rivals, the injury-riddled and under-performing Queensland Reds.

FORCE ADD TO REDS’ WOES AND KEEP PLAYOFFS DREAM ALIVE

The Super Rugby semi-finals remain with Western Force’s grasp after they recovered from a mid-game slump to defeat Queensland Reds 30-20 in Perth on Saturday night.

Inspired by a determined performance from departing winger and cult hero Nick Cummins, the Force saw off a Samu Kerevi-led comeback from the visitors to set up a crunch final-round clash with the Brumbies.

The Force looked like they could run up a cricket score on the Reds early on as first Cummins and then backrower Ben McCalman crossed for tries within the first 20 minutes.

But a yellow card to Hugh McMeniman – who dropped a knee into Ben Lucas – and the barnstorming play of Kerevi brought the Reds back to life just before half-time.

Making his first run-on start for the Reds, Kerevi repeatedly broke through the Force’s defence and eventually scored his side’s first try just three minutes out from the break.

Replacement prop Albert Anae added another five-pointer in the 59th-minute and when Mike Harris kicked his second penalty of the night the game was all locked up at 20-all with 10 minutes to play.

But knowing their season was one the line the Force quickly responded through a penalty and then a try to hooker Nathan Charles to complete the 10-point win.

The Force face the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday night where a number of possible outcomes could see them secure a maiden playoffs berth.

Win and they’ll be through. A loss leaves them at the mercy of other results.

CHIEFS STRETCH TITLE DEFENCE INTO FINAL ROUND

The Chiefs have ensured that their title defence remains alive heading into the final round of the season after doing just enough to clinch a vital 24-16 win over the Hurricanes in Hamilton.

Billed as a battle between All Black playmakers Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett, it was the Chiefs No.10 who came out on top as he booted 14 points to lead his side to victory and dent the Hurricanes’ hopes of securing a playoffs berth in the process.

Drawing on the experience that has seen them clinch back-to-back titles the past two seasons, the Chiefs dominated the forward battle and possession to deny the Hurricanes’ attacking stars any chance to shine.

Tries to forwards Jamie Mackintosh and Brodie Retallick helped the home side skip out to a 24-9 lead midway through the second half, and while the Hurricanes threatened to mount a late comeback after Hadleigh Parks crossed to narrow the margin it was the cool heads of the Chiefs that prevailed.

The victory saw the Chiefs jump from ninth on the ladder to seventh, and means a win away to the Blues on Friday night will secure a top-six spot – possibly as high as fourth depending on other results in round 19.

The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have the bye and are pinning their hopes on the Blues defeating the Chiefs at Eden Park – but not securing a four-try bonus point in the process.

The Auckland outfit’s Eden Park record in 2014 certainly suggests a win is a distinct possibility, but they’ll need to execute far better than they did in their 21-13 loss to the Crusaders in Christchurch if they’re to convert their own longshot chance of sneaking into the top six.

The Crusaders’ Dan Carter experiment wasn’t exactly an overwhelming success, with the All Blacks ace not getting his hands on the ball at inside centre as much as his fans would have no doubt preferred. The Cantabrians had two-try hero Nemani Nadolo to thank for a victory that kept alive their hopes of finishing second, and progressing straight through to the second week of the finals.

SHARKS SHOCKED, SLIP BACK TO THIRD

Are the Sharks running out of steam?

South Africa’s conference winners returned from a four-week break with the chance to take a giant step towards locking down second spot on the ladder.

Instead they were ambushed 27-20 by a fired-up Cheetahs outfit, who may have dealt Jake White’s side a fatal blow.

Replacement winger Tonderai Chavhanga had the chance to ensure the Sharks got more than just a losing bonus point out of the match, but was denied by a brilliant last-ditch tackle in the corner from centre Rayno Benjamin right on full-time.

The result means the Sharks slipped to third on the overall ladder, equal on points with the second-placed Crusaders but trailing – marginally – on points differential.

They will have the advantage of heading into their round 19 clash against the Stormers knowing the result of the Crusaders’ clash with the Highlanders earlier on Saturday, and what they have to do to overtake them.

But any kind of victory at Newlands will be no mean feat given the form the Stormers have started to show at the back end of the season.

The Cape Town side was far too strong for the Bulls, running out 16-0 winners to end the three-time champions’ outside shot at a finals berth.

Earlier on Saturday morning (AEST), the Lions all-but consigned the Melbourne Rebels to the wooden spoon after a come-from-behind 34-17 win at Ellis Park.

Originally published as Super Rugby R18 review: Waratahs secure top spot but other playoff positions still up for grabs