Super Bowl LVII - Betting 101 Guide: Winner odds, Over/Unders, MVP, first TD scorer and more
Philadelphia takes on Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII on Monday morning: who do the odds like in the CODE Bet betting 101 guide?
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Super Bowl LVII hits Monday morning in Australia and there’s nothing quite like it.
The biggest sporting event in the USA will be a typically ridiculous over-the-top spectacle, but considering the level of the teams involved, the game itself could prove wildly spectacular.
Featuring the NFC’s No.1 seed Philadelphia Eagles, led by Jalen Hurts and the most well-rounded team in football this year taking on the AFC’s No.1 seeded Kansas City Chiefs - fronted by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the league’s best offence - we should be in for an absolute feast of American football.
After all, newly-minted two-time MVP Mahomes will be two weeks healthier and the brutal, fast and BIG Eagles defence will be ready and waiting, plus we get an Aussie connection, with Philly toting big Jordan Mailata at left tackle and Arryn Siposs at punter (s/o NFL Straya).
Patrick Mahomes unable to accept his MVP award in person because he's getting ready for the Super Bowl.
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 10, 2023
Doesn't get much better than that 🔥 #ChiefsKingdompic.twitter.com/kLzlhS5Jwo
But on top of the football, the added fun of a Super Bowl each and every year is just how wild, wacky and wonderful the punting opportunities are.
There’s the serious stuff like who wins the game, how many points are scored and the endless amounts of player props, but then there’s all the fun silliness of markets like ‘how long will it take Chris Stapleton to sing the national anthem’ (under 127.5 seconds) and ‘what colour Gatorade gets poured on the winning coach’ (green/yellow if you think Philly win, orange if you like KC).
There’s even markets for what songs Rihanna will sing during the halftime show (take ‘Stay’ as the first song), or which guest could possibly join the Barbadian superstar on stage (A$AP Rocky surely merits a look in, right?).
[Check out CODE Bet’s guide to the Super Bowl novelty markets here]
But, remember, there is actually a football game as part of the Super Bowl as well.
So, who do the odds like to win Super Bowl LVII? Let’s take a look at the most popular markets.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: $1.80
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: $2.02
WHO WINS
The Eagles are current favourites to win, but not by much.
After all, both teams head into the Super Bowl with a 16-3 record and, remarkably, having scored the exact same amount of 546 total points for the season.
Philadelphia cruised through the playoffs, beating the NY Giants and San Francisco 49ers handily as they rode huge defensive efforts and a perfectly balanced offence even with Hurts under a slight injury cloud.
Kansas City head into the Super Bowl banged up - as evidenced in their last-gasp win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship game - with Patrick Mahomes still recovering from an ankle injury and their receiving corps a walking MASH unit, after pulling out close wins over tough opponents in the Bengals and Jaguars.
In the regular season, the Chiefs had the NFL’s best offence, scoring 28.2 points per game while also leading the league in yards per game (413.6) AND per play (6.4) over the course of the regular season.
On the other side of the ball the KC defence allowed the 11th fewest yards per game (328.2) and the 16th fewest points per outing (21.7).
The Eagles were third in the league across the regular season for both points (28.1) and yards per game at 389.1, but also owned the league’s 8th best defence for points per game allowed (20.2), and gave up the NFL’s second-least amount of yards per game (301.5).
Remembering that the Super Bowl is played on a neutral site - this year in Arizona - the Chiefs were 7-2 on the road this year and Philadelphia were 7-1 but, interestingly, are 0-5 in their last five at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
So you can see why the odds are so tight. But with the strength of Philadelphia on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to pick against them.
THE PICK: PHILADELPHIA H2H
POINT SPREAD / LINE
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5: $1.96
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5: $1.84
The current line (the betting handicap) has the Eagles as either -1.5 or -2.5 point favourites, which is taking into consideration the Chiefs injuries.
Against the spread this year the Eagles were 10-9 (12th in the league), while the Chiefs were a very rough 7-11-1, 28th in the NFL.
The stats back up Philly when it comes to covering the line, so considering the strength of Philadelphia’s defence and the multifaceted strengths of its offensive and defensive lines, it’s hard to go against the Eagles to win and by three or more points.
THE PICK: PHILADELPHIA -2.5 $1.96
POINTS TOTAL: OVER/UNDER - 50.5
The two teams might have had two of the three best scoring offences in the NFL, but KC games have only gone over the total points line in 8 of their 19 games to date, while Philly are 9-9-1 in their games hitting the over.
When it comes to this Super Bowl and its over/under points total of 50.5, 10 of KC’s matches went over that mark, while only five of Philly’s topped it, which speaks to the defensive nous of the Eagles.
But with both teams averaging 28.7 points per outing over the entire season (regular season and playoffs combined), it’s hard to see this game not going past 51.
With a final exact scoreline of something like 27-24 hitting the over and the stats saying there should be plenty of points scored, a points total ‘over’ is a good value look.
THE PICK: Total Points - OVER 50.5
SUPER BOWL MVP
When looking at who wins the Super Bowl MVP, it’s worth remembering it typically goes to the quarterback (38 times of the 57 Super Bowls) of the winning team (not since 1971 has a player from the losing side won the MVP).
Pretty simple, really.
Not only is it a quarterback dominated award, it’s an offensive award too: a defensive player hasn’t won since the Denver Broncos’ Von Miller in Super Bowl 50.
As such, Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts ($2.10) and Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes ($2.30) are the obvious favourites, with Chiefs Travis tight end Kelce next at $13.
For anyone else to win the MVP, it’s worth thinking about running backs like Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco who won’t rely on their quarterbacks as much as the receivers, or a defensive wrecking ball performance from Haason Reddick or Chris Jones.
So while the odds suggest that the winning team’s quarterback will be holding up the Pete Rozelle Trophy at the end of the game, there’s plenty of value for a key position player to make Super Bowl LVII their own.
Like, say, Miles Sanders running in a couple of touchdowns, same as he did against the Niners.
- Jalen Hurts: $2.10
- Patrick Mahomes: $2.30
- Travis Kelce: $13
- AJ Brown: $15
- Devonta Smith: $26
- Miles Sanders: $34
- Haason Reddick: $41
- Chris Jones: $51
- Isaiah Pacheco: $51
THE PICK: Miles Sanders: $34
FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER
After timing the National Anthem run time (take the ‘under 127.5 seconds’) there’s nothing more exciting than the Super Bowl finally kicking off and waiting for the first touchdown to be scored.
Travis Kelce scored the Chiefs first touchdown a ridiculous eight times this season, with Jerick McKinnon getting in for the first score fives times (but has yet to score in the playoffs), Kadarious Toney and Mercole Hardman (who’s injured and won’t play) twice and Isiah Pacheco and JuJu Smith-Schuster both scoring the first KC TD once.
For Philly it was Jalen Hurts running the ball into for the Eagles first touchdown of a game on six occasions, followed by Miles Sanders (4), AJ Brown (2), Dallas Goedert (2) and Devonta Smith, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Philly’s defence/special teams (all once).
With Kansas City’s struggles slowing down opposing teams in the red zone, the Eagles feel like the lean, with Hurts running the first TD in an obvious favourite based on his six first-scores so far this season, but Miles Sanders was the first TD scorer last game against the Niners.
He’s a good look to so again.
The value play though?
That might be Philly tight end Dallas Goedert presenting a big target for Hurts once the Eagles get in the red zone in a similar fashion to his first TD score in the playoff game against the Giants.
- Travis Kelce $6.75
- Jalen Hurts: $7.50
- AJ Brown: $8
- Isiah Pacheco: $8.50
- Miles Sanders: $8.50
- Dallas Goedert: $10
- Devonta Smith: $10
- Jerick McKinnon: $10
- Marques Valdez-Scantling: $13
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: $15
THE PICK: Miles Sanders $8.50
THE VALUE PICK: Dallas Goedert $10
[all odds as of February 10 via Betr]
--CHECK OUT CODE BET’S NFL BETTING ANALYSIS AND ODDS COMPARISON TOOLS HERE--
Originally published as Super Bowl LVII - Betting 101 Guide: Winner odds, Over/Unders, MVP, first TD scorer and more
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