Super Rugby semi-finals: Five talking points for Waratahs v Brumbies, Crusaders v Sharks

AHEAD of the Super Rugby semi-finals, we look at five key talking points that could settle the Waratahs v Brumbies and Crusaders v Sharks clashes.

Brumbies vs Chiefs at GIO Stadium in Canberra. brumbies Henry Speight.

AHEAD of a massive weekend of Super Rugby semi-finals action, we look at five key talking points that could settle the Waratahs v Brumbies and Crusaders v Sharks clashes.

WILL BYE MEAN BYE FOR HOME TEAMS?

The home sides have a less than flattering record when it comes to Super Rugby semi-finals under the current format.

Since Super Rugby was expanded to 15 teams and the playoffs series boosted to include six sides in 2011, the semi-finalists coming off a bye have lost three out of six encounters.

The Waratahs and Crusaders are both coming off the bye this time round, so will one or both of them fall to that stat?

Both face in-form sides boasting back-to-back wins. The Brumbies have tuned up for their clash with local rivals NSW with victories over the Western Force and Chiefs and will bring a mountain of momentum with them to Allianz Stadium on Saturday night.

Likewise the Sharks have snapped out of a slump by downing the Stormers and then the Highlanders heading into their Christchurch showdown with the Crusaders.

The Waratahs lineout was shown up by Rob Simmons and the Reds.

LOSING LINEOUTS REALLY AN ISSUE?

It was under all sorts of pressure against the Reds two weeks ago, so can the Brumbies also exploit a shaky Waratahs lineout on Saturday night?

James Horwill, Rob Simmons and Jake Schatz caused plenty of problems for the Tahs in Brisbane, picking off three throws and generally making things difficult for Waratahs hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau.

And in Ben Mowen, Sam Carter and Scott Fardy the Brumbies have three quality jumpers capable of matching the Reds’ feats. But will it really have much of an effect on the match? Apparently not, according to Fox Sports’ Rod Kafer.

“Whilst the lineout was poor against the Reds, a bad lineout will rarely lose you a match,” Kafer said on Rugby HQ.

“A poor scrum can lose you a match, but a poor lineout — you can get away with that.”

Still, the Brumbies will see it as an opportunity to disrupt the Tahs’ fluency, which could well be pivotal.

Israel Folau could be a gamebreaker for the Waratahs.

HE GOT GAME: ISRAEL FOLAU OR HENRY SPEIGHT?

The more you think about this game, the harder the Waratahs and Brumbies become to split. There is very little between these two great Aussie rivals.

One win each this year, a head-to-head record that stands 13-11 in favour of the Waratahs and an even split of Wallabies across the paddock. It’s flip-a-coin territory.

And what then if that coin is emblazoned the faces of Israel Folau and Henry Speight, who are you hoping is facing skyward when it comes to the crunch? In other words, who is the bigger gamebreaker?

Buoyed by a midweek Wallabies selection and coming off one of the most powerful wing displays of the season, Speight is a major threat on the right wing. But will he get enough ball? And can he skin noted defender Rob Horne like he did the Chiefs’ James Lowe.

And then there’s Folau. While he’s exerted his serious shadow over the two earlier clashes with the Brumbies, Izzy would be the first to admit they weren’t among his best efforts of the season. Jesse Mogg stole a try in both Canberra and Sydney this year through sheer desire, the desperation to outstretch Folau.

It might just come down to a moment of brilliance from either Folau or Speight, and just like the match itself — that’s too close to call.

Patrick Lambie has played little rugby of late for the Sharks.

WILL LAMBIE GAMBLE PAY OFF FOR SHARKS?

There’s no doubting the talents of Patrick Lambie, but the question has to be asked: is he ready to guide the Sharks to a landmark Super Rugby finals victory in Christchurch?

The Springboks star started the season on fire, until he was struck down by a biceps injury in late March that was supposed to end his Super Rugby campaign.

A quicker-than-expected recovery resulted in Lambie making his return via the bench against the Highlanders last weekend.

But he played just 12 minutes at Kings Park, and has now been asked to step up in the key playmaking role against a star-studded Crusaders outfit.

Lambie’s return sees Frans Steyn move to the centres alongside Paul Jordaan and JP Pietersen pushes out to the wing.

On paper it’s a good-looking Sharks backline, but it relies heavily on the 23-year-old Lambie handling the pressure-cooker environment of semi-finals rugby in Christchurch on the back of very little rugby.

WILL FINALS EXPERIENCE BE A FACTOR?

Look away now if you’re a Waratahs fan and you hold weight in the notion that experience counts when it comes to finals.

The Tahs haven’t featured in the playoffs since 2011, and have lost their past three finals matches.

Conversely the Brumbies have won five of their past six finals, with last year’s defeat to the Chiefs in the decider their only post-season loss since 2003.

The bulk of the Brumbies squad featured in last year’s charge to the grand final, which saw them notch wins in Canberra and Pretoria before the Hamilton loss, so will it give them an edge in the do-or-die stakes come Saturday night?

Across the ditch the experience is weighted heavily in the favour of the All Blacks-laden Crusaders.

Star pair Richie McCaw (21) and Dan Carter (19) have played 40 Super Rugby finals between them, whereas Ryan Kankowski, JP Pietersen and Bismarck du Plessis boast the most experience for the Sharks with eight finals appearances apiece.

The Crusaders are the most successful team in Super Rugby history, and are embarking on their 16th finals campaign. They also have an incredible home finals record that stands at 15 matches played, for 15 wins.

Originally published as Super Rugby semi-finals: Five talking points for Waratahs v Brumbies, Crusaders v Sharks