Super Rugby round 19 preview: Brumbies, Force battle for finals berth along with four New Zealand sides

IT’S the final round of the Super Rugby season and nine teams are vying for the finals — so who will make the cut? Check out our Round 19 preview!

force v brumbies

IT’S the final round of the Super Rugby regular season and nine teams are vying for a place in the top six.

The Brumbies and Force face-off in a do-or-die battle while two New Zealand derbies — Blues v Chiefs and Crusaders v Highlanders — will have huge ramifications on the playoffs picture.

So who will make the cut?

Read on for our Round 19 Super Rugby preview!

Blues v Chiefs

5.35pm EST Friday, Eden Park, Auckland, Fox Sports 2HD

We kick off the closing regular season round with the first of two New Zealand derbies as north island foes the Blues and Chiefs face off in Auckland.

Mathematically, the Blues are still in the hunt for the semi-finals. But can you see them beating the Chiefs by the 39 points they’d need to move ahead of the Hurricanes?

That doesn’t mean the Blues can’t round out the season in style and at least finish with a perfect record at Eden Park. It’s also likely to be Ma’a Nonu’s last game for the franchise with the All Blacks centre almost certain to return to Wellington in 2015.

John Kirwan’s side will be without skipper Luke Braid and veteran prop Tony Woodcock with Brendan O’Connor and Sam Prattley slotting in at No. 7 and loose-head respectively.

While the Blues’ season can virtually be consigned to the 2014 almanac, the Chiefs three-peat dream remains a reality. A bonus-point win could see the two-time defending champions finish as high as fourth — dependant on other results — but a loss would be terminal.

Dave Rennie’s side head to Auckland on the back of a strong 24-16 win over the Hurricanes last weekend where co-captain and flyhalf Aaron Cruden looked to be back to his best.

And bucking the trend that has been his merry-go-round selection policy, Rennie has rewarded that starting XV by making just one injury-forced change at inside centre with Bundee Aki replacing Charlie Ngatai.

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Brumbies v Force

7.40pm EST, GIO Stadium, Canberra, Fox Sports 2HD

Once you’ve devoured your Friday entrée take a quick pit-stop and get ready for the main course as it all goes on the line in what is expected to be a freezing Canberra.

Locked on 40 points apiece and nine wins each, the Brumbies and Force are separated by a 40-point differential meaning it’s a winner-takes-all situation come Friday night. The losing side could also advance with just a bonus point but that would rely on the Blues beating the Chiefs by more than seven points.

Whatever the case, the Brumbies and Force will know exactly where they stand when kick-off arrives.

In a massive boost for last year’s runners-up, playmaker Matt Toomua and workhorse lock Sam Carter are both fit and come straight into the run-on side. The duo were badly missed two weeks ago when the Waratahs thrashed the Brumbies 39-8 while the inclusions of backs Joe Tomane and Pat McCabe on the bench provide further good news.

The Brumbies can take confidence in the knowledge they defeated the Force in their last two encounters in Canberra and also cruised to a 27-14 victory in Perth earlier this year.

The Force are a totally different team now however, and with a maiden playoffs spot on offer should be right up for this challenge.

Michael Foley’s side drifted in and out of last week’s contest with the Reds but finished the stronger to record a 30-20 win. Coach Michael Foley is set to regain tenacious halfback Alby Mathewson which would be a massive inclusion against Wallabies No. 9 Nic White.

And while many of the recent stats suggest the Force face an uphill battle to get the win perhaps the biggest precursor lies in the fact the Brumbies haven’t won a final-round clash since 2007. Game on.

Bulls v Rebels

3.10am Saturday AEST, Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, Fox Sports 2HD

There’s nothing but pride to play for both the Bulls and Rebels who face off in one of three final-round encounters that have no bearing on the make-up of the top six.

The Bulls squandered any outside hope they had of sneaking into the playoffs when they were held scoreless in a 16-0 shutout by the Stormers last weekend yet not even their most diehard of fans could argue they deserve to feature in the post-season.

That being said, they should at least round out 2014 with a win over the battling Melbourne Rebels.

Sitting three points adrift of the 14th-placed Cheetahs the Rebels need a win to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon — an assignment made all the more tough with the suspension of skipper Scott Higginbotham.

The Rebels No. 8 was handed a one-game ban following his third yellow card of the season in last weekend’s 34-17 loss to the Lions with the captaincy reverting to Kiwi recruit Scott Fuglistaller.

The Bulls should be far too strong here.

Crusaders v Highlanders

5.35pm AEST Saturday, AMI Stadium, Christchurch, Fox Sports 2HD

A south island derby will settle top spot in the New Zealand conference and we can only hope it lives up to the first encounter between these two sides in 2014.

Back in round 15 the Crusaders hung on for a thrilling 32-30 victory in Dunedin, which was only confirmed when the TMO ruled that Patrick Osborne had grounded the ball simultaneously on the tryline and touchline and denied the Highlanders winger what was millimetres away from being a match-winning five-pointer after the full-time siren.

The Highlanders need to reverse that result — and deny the Crusaders a bonus point — if they’re to leapfrog the Cantabrians and snatch top spot in New Zealand, and will be looking for at least a losing bonus point to ensure they hang on to a top six spot.

They’ve been dealt an early blow with All Blacks fullback Ben Smith ruled out after he was hospitalised in Sydney this week with a leg infection following last Sunday’s loss to the Waratahs. His place in the side will be taken by Trent Renata.

Also weighing against the Highlanders’ hopes is their poor recent away record in this fixture. The Crusaders have won nine of their past 11 matches at home to the Highlanders, and one of those two defeats came outside Christchurch, in Nelson.

Lock Sam Whitelock returns for the Crusaders, while Dan Carter will again don the No. 12 jersey for the Crusaders.

The All Blacks star worked his way into last week’s win over the Blues will be looking to step up his game and take the Crusaders with him to ensure they enter the finals at full throttle.

Reds v Waratahs

7.40pm AEST Saturday, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Fox Sports 2HD

Just three days after rugby league’s State of Origin finale, Suncorp Stadium will again play host to a Queensland-NSW “dead rubber”.

And again it will be the home team looking to play the role of party-pooper. The Reds’ season ended long ago and while any interstate victory will always be celebrated north of the border they can’t even say they’ll hurt the Tahs’ finals hopes given that Michael Cheika’s men wrapped up the minor premiership last weekend.

And yet, it’s Queensland v NSW. The Reds, while rocked by injury, will be fired up to get one over their fierce rivals and have even managed to get gun flanker Liam Gill back from Commonwealth Games sevens duty for the occasion.

Gill will start off the bench but will be itching to get on to earn his 50th Queensland cap — and go head-to-head with star Wallabies No. 7 Michael Hooper.

One bright spot for Queensland in recent weeks has been the emergence of centre Samu Kerevi, and Reds fans will get to see the big Fijian in action for the first time on home soil.

The match has been robbed of some star power with Waratahs fullback Israel Folau out with a corked thigh, but the likes of Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale and Adam Ashley-Cooper have all been in terrific touch and will take some stopping.

NSW, who smashed the Reds 32-5 when they met at ANZ Stadium in Sydney in round three, are shooting for a seventh-straight victory and given that they have week one of the finals off, will be keen to keep that momentum going heading into the playoffs.

In order to do so they’ll have to snap a three-game losing streak in Brisbane but given their brilliant form the Waratahs look primed to heap more misery on the Reds.

Lions v Cheetahs

1.05am AEST, Sunday, Ellis Park, Johannesburg, Fox Sports 2HD

Depending on how the Rebels fare on Saturday morning, this match could end up deciding the wooden spoon.

But even if the Rebels fall short in Pretoria to remain rooted to the bottom of the table, the loser of this match will claim the unwanted tag of worst team in the South Africa conference.

That would seal a massive fall from grace for the Cheetahs who have been one of the disappointments of 2014 after their impressive run to the finals last season.

The Bloemfontein outfit has shown just glimpses of that 2013 form, with a win last week over the one-time ladder-leading Sharks coming much too late.

The Lions, meanwhile, have surpassed their previous season best of five wins (secured back in 2007) but want to finish 2014 on a high.

Stormers v Sharks

3.10am Sunday AEST, Newlands, Cape Town

What’s happened to the Sharks? If you know what the problem is we’re sure coach Jake White would be happy to hear you out.

Seemingly cruising to the minor premiership just a week out from the Test break, the Sharks dropped back-to-games either side of the international window to endanger their top-two hopes.

As it stands, they can still finish in second place if they match the Crusaders’s result this weekend — be that with just a win or a bonus-point win — but would then also need to move ahead on for-and against which they currently trail by eight points.

All of the above will be easier said than done against a Stormers side which has found its feet late in the season. The Cape Town outfit have won four on the trot and moved from wooden-spoon contenders to within one point of 10th spot — they also boast as many wins (7) as both the Chiefs and Blues.

It doesn’t make for great reading for Sharks fans and while they’re already assured the RSA conference title and a home semi-final next weekend, a third-straight loss would be a horrible way to enter the playoffs.

White will surely recall Springboks Jannie and Bismarck du Plessis and Willem Alberts to the Sharks’ starting line-up after bringing them off the bench against the Cheetahs while playmaker Pat Lambie could also be a shock inclusion.

The Stormers will chase a fifth-straight win with the same side that held the Bulls scoreless but for the loss of hooker Deon Fourie. Tiaan Liebenberg will assume the No. 2 jersey.

Originally published as Super Rugby round 19 preview: Brumbies, Force battle for finals berth along with four New Zealand sides